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Nebraska Sustainability Leadership Workshop

Energy: How Our Future Will Look Different, and What We Can Do About It. Daniel Lawse Energy Outreach Associate Neighborhood Center, Omaha. Nebraska Sustainability Leadership Workshop. Post peak oil producers (64). Oil producers (98). www.lastoilshock.com. Discovery, Production, Demand.

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Nebraska Sustainability Leadership Workshop

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  1. Energy: How Our Future Will Look Different, and What We Can Do About It. Daniel Lawse Energy Outreach Associate Neighborhood Center, Omaha Nebraska Sustainability Leadership Workshop

  2. Post peak oil producers (64) Oil producers (98) www.lastoilshock.com

  3. Discovery, Production, Demand

  4. Supply, Demand, Price Scenario

  5. After peaking of global oil production, exports cease in only nine years, far faster than overall oil production. Exports decline at an accelerating rate, starting at about -13% and ending at about -48%, averaging about -29% per year over the 8 years of decline. Only about 10% of the oil produced after the peak is ever exported! Oil Export Crisis

  6. It’s not the size of the tank which matters, but the size of the tap. We are now at, or “close enough” to the peak. Oil production in the U.S. is well past its peak and is in long-term decline. Oil shale: the fuel of the future…and it always will be. Peak Oil Media Guide

  7. ANWR and the continental shelf are no panacea. Oil prices aren’t all about us. Depletion is relentless. Expectations for the future are shrinking. Improved technology cannot move the peak. —Chris Nelder,Steve AndrewsASPO-USA Peak Oil Media Guide

  8. The End of Growth

  9. “Predictions are always difficult, especially about the future.” —Neils Bohr Quantum physicist

  10. “The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation…the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.” • The Hirsch ReportU.S. Department of EnergyFebruary 2005

  11. “It is quite likely that the time interval before the global peak occurs will be briefer than the period required for societies to adapt themselves painlessly to a different energy regime.” —Richard HeinbergPeak Everything:Waking Up to a Century of Declines

  12. Expect oil prices to be in dynamic movement. Conservatively, plan for US$100/barrel by 2010, but don't be surprised if a recession somewhere drops price back to US$50, for a short while, or sudden war in the Middle East sends prices skyrocketing. Expect the fundamentals of fading supply growth and growing demand to push prices ever higher in the 5 year horizon, perhaps well beyond US$200/barrel. Plausible Future

  13. Cubic Mile of Oil/Year

  14. “We have at most ten years—not ten years to decide upon action, but ten years to alter fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse emissions.” —James HansenDirectorGoddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA

  15. “The second half of the Age of Oil now dawns and will be marked by the decline of oil and all that depends on it, including financial capital. It heralds the collapse of the present financial system, and the related political structures… I am speaking of a second Great Depression.” Colin Campbell, Ph.D.ASPO Conference 2003

  16. “The world oil production peak represents an unprecedented economic crisis that will wreak havoc on national economies, topple governments, alter national boundaries, provoke military strife, and challenge the continuation of civilized life.” James Howard KunstlerThe Long Emergency

  17. PEAK OIL CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES GLOBALWARMING ECONOMIC INSTABILITY

  18. Future Energy Scenarios

  19. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) Opportunities for Public Power in Energy EfficiencyJeff Genzer Duncan, Weinberg, Genzer & Pembroke, P.C.1615 M Street, N.W., Suite 800Washington, DC 20036(202) 467-6370jcg@dwgp.com

  20. Key contacts: Department of Energy, in charge of stimulus: Matt Rogers Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office at DOE: Gil Sperling Introduction The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) provides billions of dollars in new funding for energy efficiency and smart grid programs.

  21. $3.1 billion provided for State Energy Program (SEP) SEP received $44 million in federal fiscal year 2008 Funds provided to state energy offices Governors must send letter to Energy Secretary Chu regarding utility regulatory policies on energy efficiency and upgrading of building energy efficiency codes Funding can be used for a wide variety of programs, projects & policies, including: Energy efficiency Renewable energy Alternative transportation programs ARRA waived a 20% cost share for the states and also waived a regulatory provision that limited capital investments to 50% of SEP funds. Operated by the Office of Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs (OWIP) within the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). Find your state energy director at www.naseo.org State Energy Program

  22. $3.2 billion is provided for the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant (EECBG) EECBG had not previously been funded $400 million of the $3.2 billion will be distributed through a competitive program among state, local and tribal entities Cooperative/coordinated proposals encouraged Of the remaining $2.8 billion, funds will be distributed: 68% directly to over 1700 of the larger cities in the U.S. 16% through the states to counties of under 200,000 and towns of under 35,000 Funds must be distributed within 6 months of DOE approval of a plan 12% directly to state energy offices for SEP 2% for competitive program, likely to be added to $400 million noted above 2% available to tribes Operated by OWIP under EERE Contact your state energy office, and coordinate with your statewide Mayor’s group Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant

  23. $5 billion is provided for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) WAP received $227 million in federal fiscal year 2008 ARRA statutory changes: Amount that can be spent on each home increased from $2,500 to $6,500, to allow more comprehensive energy efficiency measures to be implemented Eligibility increased to 200% of poverty, from 150% of poverty Statutory preference for community action agencies to serve as delivery agents for WAP, but to expand the program, local government coordination and/or delivery is expected National Association for Community Services Programs (NASCSP) coordinates state-level program managers National Community Action Foundation (NCAF) represents community action agencies Weatherization Assistance Program

  24. $300 million is provided to state energy offices to provide rebates to encourage consumers to purchase Energy Star appliances Program has not previously been funded Program requires a 50% match Contact your state energy office Energy Star Appliance Rebates Program

  25. $4.4 billion is provided for investments in the “smart grid,” as authorized by Title XIII of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) Expected to include advanced metering and demand response equipment, as well as other measures Funding open to utilities (including public power, cooperatives and investor-owned utilities) and “other parties” involved in smart grid development 50% cost-sharing requirement, including regional demonstrations, utility scale energy storage demonstrations, etc. Operated by the DOE Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability Additional $100 million allocated through this office for “Green Jobs” initiative Smart Grid

  26. $2.5 billion is provided to the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Division for Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment Programs $800 million for biomass $400 million for geothermal DOE is allocating funds for a variety of other uses (e.g., industrial energy efficiency programs) Potential source of matching funds Energy RDD&D

  27. $500 million is provided for the “Green Jobs” initiatives created by Section 1001 and 1002 of EISA Funds to be spend on initiating a worker training program for energy efficiency and renewable energy Separate national and state energy training partnerships to be created Operated by the Department of Labor $100 million also provided for worker training under the Smart Grid initiative Green Jobs

  28. $2.25 billion is provided for the HOME Investment Partnerships Program at HUD Funds are provided to state housing finance agencies for low-income housing The program encourages funding for energy efficient and environmentally friendly designs $250 million is provided for energy retrofit and green investments for certain kinds of low-income housing $2.25 billion is provided more generally for project-based rental assistance $1 billion provided is provided for the Public Housing Capital Fund for competitive grants Includes investments that leverage private sector funding or financing for renovations and energy conservation retrofit investments HUD Assisted Housing

  29. $300 million is provided for the Clean Cities Program Program has previously been funded at much lower levels Funds available to states, local governments and metropolitan transportation agencies for up to 30 geographically dispersed vehicle demonstrations Supports alternative fuel vehicles, neighborhood electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, ultra low sulfur diesel vehicles, acquisition and installation of fueling infrastructure, etc. 50% cost-sharing requirement Applications due March 31, 2009 $400 million is provided for transportation electrification for local, metropolitan transportation agencies and state grants for qualified electric transportation projects Can be used for truck stop electrification, etc. Clean Cities and Plug-in Electric Vehicles

  30. No specific funding for energy efficiency in schools Suggests schools should be modernized “consistent with a recognized green building rating system” Schools

  31. $4.5 billion is provided to the General Services Administration for high performance green buildings $3.24 billion is provided to the Department of Defense to “repair and modernize facilities, restore and modernize real property and invest in the energy efficiency of facilities” $1 billion is provided to the Veterans Administration for “non-recurring maintenance including energy projects” $220 million is provided for military construction energy projects If you have any federal facilities in your service area, you may be able to work with those agencies on these projects Federal Buildings

  32. Existing homes energy efficiency tax credit raised from 10% to 30%, capped at $1,500 Clean Renewable Energy Bonds increased to $2.4 billion 1/3 dedicated to qualified projects for public power Qualified Energy Conservation Bonds increased to $3.2 billion Credits for plug-in electric drive motor vehicles include: 10% for low-speed vehicles (up to $2,500) 10% for plug-in vehicles conversions using battery modules up to 4 kWh (up to $4,000) Capped at $7,500 Taxes

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