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Chuck Wagner Manufacturing Technology Division

An Orientation to: Manufacturing Readiness Levels and Manufacturing Readiness Assessments. Chuck Wagner Manufacturing Technology Division AFRL/MLM Phone # 937-904-4583 john.mistretta@wpafb.af.mil. Session Outline. Purpose and Background Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs)

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Chuck Wagner Manufacturing Technology Division

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  1. An Orientation to: Manufacturing Readiness Levels and Manufacturing Readiness Assessments Chuck Wagner Manufacturing Technology Division AFRL/MLM Phone # 937-904-4583john.mistretta@wpafb.af.mil

  2. Session Outline • Purpose and Background • Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) • IPT Tools for Evaluating MRLs • Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA) Process • Assessment Example • Discussion

  3. Why MRLs? Manufacturing & Industrial Base Challenge • Consensus among Congress, OSD, CSAF, GAO: “Advanced weapon systems cost too much, take too long to field, and are too expensive to sustain” • Recent GAO study of 54 weapons programs: • Core set of 26 programs: RDT&E costs up by 42% and schedule slipped by 20% • $42.7B total cost growth • 2.5 years slip on average • Characteristics of successful programs (GAO): • Mature technologies, stable designs, production processes in control • S&T organization responsible for maturing technologies, rather than program or product development manager • Defense Science Board evaluated ManTech roles/impacts for AT&L • ManTech can significantly impact across all acquisition phases • Facilitates manufacturing/industrial base readiness for S&T transition and acquisition

  4. Why MRLs? Life Cycle Cost Commitment 95% 85% Life-Cycle Cost Determination 70% 35% Cost-Reduction Opportunities 22% 100 80 Up to 85% of Costs are committed during design and development – At Milestone B, up to 90% of costs could be locked in! 60 Cumulative Percent of Cost 40 20 Idea Validation Design Development Production Support Source: DARPA Rapid Design Exploration and Optimization (RaDEO) Project

  5. Why MRLs? Acquisition Health and Manufacturing Readiness Manufacturing risk/maturity is not the only cost/schedule/performance driver, but we need to manage manufacturing readiness integral to the overall acquisition process • Products made by immature manufacturing processes generally: • Cost more • Are prone to quality problems • May not all perform the same • Are less reliable in service • Have a hard time delivering on schedule • Establishes the Business Case: • Effects of design changes (spirals, planned upgrades) • Lot pricing agreements (long term vs single lots) • Capital investments--when does the company invest? Govt?

  6. Process planning Manufacturing instructions Process selection Manufacturing technology Quality assurance Production planning/scheduling Equipment Facilities and layout Maintenance Materials management Supply chain management Workforce development Tooling development Safety and ergonomics Product testing Product/process integration Elements of Manufacturing Readiness Demands a Disciplined Methodology to Assess, Track, and Manage Manufacturing Readiness

  7. MRL Current & Future State • Current • ManTech is establishing the capability to conduct manufacturing readiness assessments for AFRL ATDs • Conducted MRAs and incorporated MRLs into approximately 10 key AFRL ATDs; 10 more planned through FY06 • Developing MRL training curriculum focused on MRL 3-6 • In partnership with JDMTP, developing DAU tools for program managers and working final MRL definitions & policy changes • Preparing to conduct MRAs on acquisition pilots • Desired Future State • Manufacturing maturity considerations a normal part of acquisition milestone decision-making processes • Program managers possess a working understanding of manufacturing issues and associated risk • Acquisition plans and tech transition cost estimates incorporate manufacturing maturity considerations

  8. Developing training for ManTech cadre and program IPTs Train and “certify” ManTech personnel to lead manufacturing readiness assessments (MRA) and risk mitigation plans Train IPTs to understand and apply basic MRL concepts Current training program 1 hour Executive Orientation 8 hour ATD/IPT Introductory Training 4 day MRA Training (principally for ManTech personnel) Training program leveraging selected external activities DAU Courses Topic introduced concurrent with existing PM and Mfg training courses More focused training under development Univ of Tenn Industrial Preparedness Training (3 week duration) MBA style look at a company business viability and production capability MRL TrainingActivities Will Evolve to Encompass Full Acquisition Spectrum and Institutionalize in AFIT and DAU

  9. Session Outline • Purpose and Background • Manufacturing Readiness Levels • IPT Tools for Evaluating MRLs • Manufacturing Readiness Assessment Process • Assessment Example • Discussion

  10. Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) • Common language and standard for • Assessing the manufacturing maturity of a technology or product and plans for its future maturation • Understanding the level of manufacturing risk in trying to produce a weapon system or transition the technology into a weapon system application • Designed to complement TRLs • Designed to help set the agenda for manufacturing risk mitigation

  11. Manufacturing Readiness & Technology Transition Success in manufacturing affects • Performance Success of the Technology • Defects and Reliability of the Technology MATERIAL Properties Reliability Processing Cost Quality PRODUCT DESIGN Loads Use Conditions Processes Available Material Selection Quantity PROCESSING Equipment Effect on Materials Configuration (layout) Tooling Quantity Quality Consider all these elements equally for Readiness

  12. Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) Provide a common language and widely-understood standard for • Assessing the performance maturity of a technology and plans for its future maturation • Understanding the level of performance risk in trying to transition the technology into a weapon system application

  13. TRLs Leave Major Transition Questions Unanswered TRL 6/7 – Prototype in Relevant/Service Environment QUESTIONS CONCERNS PERFORMANCE, SCHEDULE & COST RISK PERFORMANCE, SCHEDULE & COST RISK • Is this level of performance reproducible in items 2 - 1000? • What will these cost in production? • Can these be made in a production environment by someone without a PhD? • Are the key materials and components available? PERFORMANCE, SCHEDULE & COST RISK SCHEDULE & COST RISK

  14. MRL Relationships Relationship To System Milestones Concept Refinement Technology Development System Development & Demonstration Production & Deployment A B C MRL 3 Mfg Concepts Identified MRL 4 Mfg Proc’s In Lab Environmt MRL 5 Mfg Proc’s In Relevant Environmt MRL 6 Mfg Proc’s In Prod Rep Environmt MRL 7 Mfg Proc’s Maturing for LRIP MRL 8 Mfg Proc’s In Place for LRIP MRL 9 Mfg Proc’s In Place for FRP MRL 10 Lean Mfg Proc’s TRL 1 Basic Principles Observed TRL 2 Concept Formulat TRL 3 Proof of Concept TRL 4 Breadbrd in Lab TRL 5 Breadbrd in Rep Environmt TRL 6 Prototype in Rep Environmt TRL 7 Prototype in Ops Environmt TRL 8 System Qual TRL 9 Mission Proven Relationship To Technology Readiness Levels

  15. MRL Definitions MRL 3 Mfg Concepts Identified • MRL 4 • Mfg • Processes • Identified • Key • Processes • Identified • Producibility assessment initiated • MRL 6 • Critical • Mfg • Processes • Demo’d • Mfg • equipment • in relevant • environment • Producibility assessment ongoing • Cost • drivers analyzed • Long lead items identified MRL 10 Highest Production Readiness System in Production Or Meets Engineering Performance & Reliability Overall Mfg Process Operates At 6-Sigma Quality, and Meets Cost and Lead times Estimates • MRL 7 • Prototype • Mfg System • Mfg processes in validation • Producibility improvement underway • Trade studies conducted • Supply chain validated • Long lead plans in place MRL 8 Process Maturity Demo All materials ready for LRIP Mfg processes proven for LRIP Supply chain established • MRL 5 • Mfg • Processes • Develop. • Mfg • equipment in • relative • environment • Producibility • assessment • ongoing • Cost • drivers identified MRL 9 Mfg Processes Proven Overall Mfg Process Operates At target Quality, Cost and Lead times All key Processes Meet process Control Targets A B C

  16. MRL Evaluation Criteria • Technology and Industrial Base • Design • Materials • Cost and Funding • Process Capability and Control • Quality Management • Manufacturing Personnel • Facilities • Manufacturing Management

  17. Evaluating MRLs The Best Way to Ensure Manufacturing Readiness: • Know what Processes are Being Used for Manufacturing and • Know that these Manufacturing Processes are Capable and Controlled (Stable)

  18. Session Outline • Purpose and Background • Manufacturing Readiness Levels • IPT Tools for Evaluating MRLs • Manufacturing Readiness Assessment Process • Assessment Example • Discussion

  19. Mapping Tools for MRL MRLToolsUse to Evaluate… 3 Process Flow Charts Basic manufacturing concepts 4Detailed Process Flow Key manufacturing processes Charts 5 Value Stream Mapping Mapping the current state and identifying waste 6-10 Value Stream Mapping Mapping the future state and eliminating waste

  20. Process Control Tools for MRL MRLToolsUse to Evaluate… 4-6 Key Characteristics Requirements and Tolerances 4 Process Variables Map Which Variables to Control 5-9 Process Capability Predictability of Process Performance 5-9 Design of Experiments Multiple factors and levels of independent variables 6-9 Failure Modes and Risks associated with failures Effects Analysis

  21. Tools for MRL Overlaid on Definitions Process Capability; DOE FMEA Key Char.; Variables Mapping Process& Sourcesat Deeper Levels &Custom / Tailored Tools Value Stream Maps Process Flow Charts MRL 3 Mfg Concepts Identified • MRL 4 • Mfg • Processes • Identified • Key • Processes • Identified • Producibility assessment initiated • MRL 6 • Critical • Mfg • Processes • Demo’d • Mfg • equipment • in relevant • environment • Producibility assessment ongoing • Cost • drivers analyzed • Long lead items identified MRL 10 Lean System Production Meets Engineering Performance & Reliability Overall Mfg Process Operates At 6-Sigma Quality, and Meets Cost and Lead times Estimates • MRL 7 • Prototype • Mfg System • Mfg processes in validation • Producibility improvement underway • Trade studies conducted • Supply chain validated • Long lead plans in place MRL 8 Process Maturity Demo All materials ready for LRIP Mfg processes proven for LRIP Supply chain established • MRL 5 • Mfg • Processes • Develop. • Mfg • equipment in • relative • environment • Producibility • assessment • ongoing • Cost • drivers identified MRL 9 Mfg Processes Proven Overall Mfg Process Operates At target Quality, Cost and Lead times All key Processes Meet process Control Targets A C B

  22. Process Control and CapabilityData Captured at Each Level 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 1-3 Manufacturing processes controlled to 6 sigma level. Yields and rates meeting rate production needs. Continuous improvement on-going. FRP Manufacturing processes controlled to 3 sigma level. Yields and rates demonstrated to meet LRIP needs. Improvement ongoing LRIP Process yields and capability validated as sufficient to meet LRIP requirements. Required Manufacturing technology validated. SDD Process capability demonstrated on SDD articles. Required Manufacturing technologysolutions demonstrated. Process yield/capability for all critical processes evaluated in a production representative environment. TD Critical manufacturing process capability needs defined. Yield/rate issues identified. Manufacturing technology development underway. Manufacturing technology voids/initiatives identified CR PRE- CR Manufacturing state of the art defined Manufacturing science initiatives defined MRL Characteristics

  23. Tools for MRL 3 Data Collection Process Flow Charts MRL 3 Mfg Concepts Identified • MRL 4 • Mfg • Processes • Identified • Key • Processes • Identified • Producibility assessment initiated • MRL 6 • Critical • Mfg • Processes • Demo’d • Mfg • equipment • in relevant • environment • Producibility assessment ongoing • Cost • drivers analyzed • Long lead items identified MRL 10 Lean System Production Meets Engineering Performance & Reliability Overall Mfg Process Operates At 6-Sigma Quality, and Meets Cost and Lead times Estimates • MRL 7 • Prototype • Mfg System • Mfg processes in validation • Producibility improvement underway • Trade studies conducted • Supply chain validated • Long lead plans in place MRL 8 Process Maturity Demo All materials ready for LRIP Mfg processes proven for LRIP Supply chain established • MRL 5 • Mfg • Processes • Develop. • Mfg • equipment in • relative • environment • Producibility • assessment • ongoing • Cost • drivers identified MRL 9 Mfg Processes Proven Overall Mfg Process Operates At target Quality, Cost and Lead times All key Processes Meet process Control Targets

  24. MRL 3

  25. MRL 3 Evidence in Flow Charts Things to look for in Flow Charts at this level: • Major Processes Identified • Any Duplication/Repeated Processes • Any Special Processes • Any Uncertain/Unknown Processes • Material or Design Issues • Potential Equipment/Supply Issues • Miscommunication/Misinterpretation

  26. Tools for MRL 4 Data Collection Key Char.; Variables Mapping Process Flow Charts MRL 3 Mfg Concepts Identified • MRL 4 • Mfg • Processes • Identified • Key • Processes • Identified • Producibility assessment initiated • MRL 6 • Critical • Mfg • Processes • Demo’d • Mfg • equipment • in relevant • environment • Producibility assessment ongoing • Cost • drivers analyzed • Long lead items identified MRL 10 Lean System Production Meets Engineering Performance & Reliability Overall Mfg Process Operates At 6-Sigma Quality, and Meets Cost and Lead times Estimates • MRL 7 • Prototype • Mfg System • Mfg processes in validation • Producibility improvement underway • Trade studies conducted • Supply chain validated • Long lead plans in place MRL 8 Process Maturity Demo All materials ready for LRIP Mfg processes proven for LRIP Supply chain established • MRL 5 • Mfg • Processes • Develop. • Mfg • equipment in • relative • environment • Producibility • assessment • ongoing • Cost • drivers identified MRL 9 Mfg Processes Proven Overall Mfg Process Operates At target Quality, Cost and Lead times All key Processes Meet process Control Targets A

  27. MRL 4

  28. MRL 4 Evidence in Flow Charts Things to look for in Flow Charts at this level: • Process steps identified • Any training needs • Duplication/repeated steps • Material or design issues • Unnecessary work • Equipment needs • Miscommunication or misinterpretations • Undefined steps • Technology needs

  29. Milestone “ A ”Key Manufacturing Considerations A Process Capability and Control • Areas where manufacturing technology advancements will be required adequately addressed in Technology Development Phase plans? Design and Technology • Key technologies at least at TRL 4 level of maturity? • Producibility challenges associated with this concept adequately addressed in plans for Technology Development Phase? Industrial Base Capability and Materiel • Industrial base gaps/risks identified for key technologies? • Single sole/source or foreign source dependencies identified? • Risks associated with exotic, critical, unproven or hazardous materials identified? • Strategies in place to mitigate? Costs/Funding and Manufacturing/Quality Management • Funding for manufacturing readiness improvement sufficient to reach MRL 6? • Potential manufacturing cost drivers identified? • Manufacturing and quality strategies adequate to produce technology demonstrators? • Unusual special tooling and test equipment requirements identified?

  30. Tools for MRL 5 Data Collection Process Capability; DOE Key Char.; Variables Mapping Value Stream Maps Process Flow Charts MRL 3 Mfg Concepts Identified • MRL 4 • Mfg • Processes • Identified • Key • Processes • Identified • Producibility assessment initiated • MRL 6 • Critical • Mfg • Processes • Demo’d • Mfg • equipment • in relevant • environment • Producibility assessment ongoing • Cost • drivers analyzed • Long lead items identified MRL 10 Lean System Production Meets Engineering Performance & Reliability Overall Mfg Process Operates At 6-Sigma Quality, and Meets Cost and Lead times Estimates • MRL 7 • Prototype • Mfg System • Mfg processes in validation • Producibility improvement underway • Trade studies conducted • Supply chain validated • Long lead plans in place MRL 8 Process Maturity Demo All materials ready for LRIP Mfg processes proven for LRIP Supply chain established • MRL 5 • Mfg • Processes • Develop. • Mfg • equipment in • relative • environment • Producibility • assessment • ongoing • Cost • drivers identified MRL 9 Mfg Processes Proven Overall Mfg Process Operates At target Quality, Cost and Lead times All key Processes Meet process Control Targets A

  31. MRL 5

  32. MRL 5 and Value Stream Analysis • Mapping and analyzing the entire set of activities from raw material to finished product will help you evaluate MRL 5 Material Process, activity, or function Final Customer

  33. VSA for MRL 5 Evidence • More detailed map of the manufacturing process • Creates a baseline against which to measure improvements • Quantifies technical, cycle time and cost drivers • Provides baseline data for assessing scale-up • Determines capacity required for expected production rates • Quantifies capacity/resource constraints • Defines facilitization/equipment required • Often includes supply chain processes • Creates a forum for evaluating manufacturing options • Enables the redesign of an improved process • Excellent Tool for any IPT

  34. Value Stream Mapping Process Product/Product Family Choose a product/family Collect Data/Draw Current State Understand how the process currently operates Set Goals/Draw Future State Design an improved process Repeat Opportunities & Implementation Define and make changes to realize the Future State

  35. Opportunities/Constraints • Frequently occurring VSA opportunities: • Manual processing • High scrap/defect or low yield rates • Rework • Long setup times • Scale-up constraints - facility, training (learning curve), equipment, tooling • Product design constraints • Material cost and availability (maturity) • Inventory build-up throughout the process

  36. Shipping 1 1 1 1 1 I I Current State Value Stream Map Example (Hole Drilling) 90/60/30 day Forecasts Production Control 6-week Forecast Station 45 Station 43 MRP Weekly Fax 4 pcs/mo Forward Fuselage Weekly Schedule 2 shifts Station 44 Prep Locate Drill Countersink Debur Staging Forward fuselage 1 week C/T=1 hour C/T=10 min C/T=40 min C/T=40 min C/T=20 min 7 hours 0.5 hours 2.7 hours 2 hours 1 day C/O= 1 hour C/O=10 minutes C/O=10 minutes C/O=0 C/O=0 Uptime=85% Uptime=100% Uptime=80% Uptime=100% Uptime=100% Production Lead time =8.5 days 1 week 7 hours 0.5 hours 2.7 hours 2 hours 1.0 day 1 hour 10 min 40 min 40 min 20 min Processing Time =170 min

  37. Process Control & Capability People Equipment Material Methods Measurement Environment Information Inputs Outputs Controls

  38. Process Control Defined • The features or mechanisms that control the execution of a Process (including process initiation, selection of process steps, selection of alternative steps, iteration of steps within a loop, and process termination). • Controlling mechanisms that ensure that a Process is conducted to maximum cost-effectiveness (including entry criteria, formal procedure specifications, and exit criteria). Degree to which a process is defined, formalized and followed will help to predict the rate of Variation and potential Defects.

  39. Process Control and Readiness • Process Control monitors the extent to which our products meet specifications. • Two "enemies" of product quality: • (1) deviations from target specifications • (2) excessive variability around target specifications • Designed Experiments are used during the earlier stages of developing the production process to optimize these two quality characteristics • Quality Control Methods are on-line or in-process quality control procedures to monitor an on-going production process.

  40. Process Capability • “In control“ or stable process behavior is consistent over the time when compared against itself. • Process capability compares the process output against a specification that assumes defect-free production • Good capability needs stability ("in control") first. • If the process is stable, you can compare its actual performance against the required performance and take corrective action. Example: If the process is stable but not capable you can predict the level of scrap. You also know where you are and where you need to go for acceptability. If the process is not stable, then you don't know what you will get, where you are, and where to steer, except that you need to stabilize the process first.

  41. Process Stability • A process can be considered ‘stable’ if the observed average behavior and the observed variance is ‘consistent’ and ‘predictable’ over time. • An unstable process is caused by ‘unusual’ variation. The output of an unstable process is ‘unpredictable’.

  42. Capability Studies • Purpose of capability studies • to define process capability • to help identify limiting causes • to demonstrate capability to customers • to improve process capability • reduce defects, waste, cost, customer returns • undertake higher spec. work • to employ statistical process controls • Capability measured by Cp /Cpk

  43. Compare the variability of the process output to the desired tolerance range You may also include a comparison between the process average and some nominal or target value Assessing Process Capability Process Capability on a pilot process prior to ramp-up will show whether actual performance meets or exceeds required performance

  44. Capability Studies • What is a good Cpk ratio? • Minimum normally 1.33 Cpk • Based on 4 sigma spread • Extra sigma compensates for • Larger spread over time & larger population • Particularly mean shift • Equivalent to 63 DPM • Many companies now looking for 2.0 Cpk • Consistent with 6 sigma concept • Equivalent to 0 DPM • Based on centered process • Allowing up to 2 sigma shift

  45. Design of Experiments (DOE) • When analyzing a process, experiments are often used to evaluate which process inputs have a significant impacton the process output, and what the target level of those inputs should be to achieve a desired result (output). • Experiments can be designedin many different ways to collect this information.

  46. DOE Guidelines • The Design of an experiment addresses the questions outlined by your organization by stipulating the following: • The factors to be tested • The levels of those factors • The structure and layout of experimental runs or conditions. • A well-designed experiment is as simple as possible - obtaining the required information in a cost effective and reproducible manner.

  47. Tools for MRL 6 Data Collection MRL 3 Mfg Concepts Identified • MRL 4 • Mfg • Processes • Identified • Key • Processes • Identified • Producibility assessment initiated • MRL 6 • Critical • Mfg • Processes • Demo’d • Mfg • equipment • in relevant • environment • Producibility assessment ongoing • Cost • drivers analyzed • Long lead items identified MRL 10 Lean System Production Meets Engineering Performance & Reliability Overall Mfg Process Operates At 6-Sigma Quality, and Meets Cost and Lead times Estimates • MRL 7 • Prototype • Mfg System • Mfg processes in validation • Producibility improvement underway • Trade studies conducted • Supply chain validated • Long lead plans in place MRL 8 Process Maturity Demo All materials ready for LRIP Mfg processes proven for LRIP Supply chain established • MRL 5 • Mfg • Processes • Develop. • Mfg • equipment in • relative • environment • Producibility • assessment • ongoing • Cost • drivers identified MRL 9 Mfg Processes Proven Overall Mfg Process Operates At target Quality, Cost and Lead times All key Processes Meet process Control Targets A B Process Capability; DOE FMEA Key Char.; Variables Mapping Value Stream Maps Process Flow Charts

  48. MRL 6

  49. Developing the Future State VSA • Consider the demand requirements for scale-up • Draw the ideal process • Steps, equipment, manning • Identify the constraints to realizing the ideal state • Quantify the constraints and the expected impact of removing them • Time, cost, etc. • Determine capacity required for expected production rates • Define facilities and equipment required • Include key suppliers

  50. Shipping 1 1 3 I I Future State Value Stream Map Example (Hole Drilling) 90/60/30 day Forecasts Production Control 6-week Forecast Station 45 Station 43 MRP Weekly Fax 30 pcs/mo Forward Fuselage Weekly Schedule 2 shifts Station 44 Drill, Countersink, debur Inspect, Prep, & Locate Inspect Staging Forward fuselage 1 day C/T=60 min C/T=60 min C/T=20 min 45 min 45 min .5 day C/O= 1 hour C/O=0 C/O=0 Uptime=85% Uptime=100% Uptime=100% 45 min 45 min Production Lead time 1 day .5 day =1.6 days 60 min 60 min 20 min Processing Time =140 min

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