Cost Estimation and Budgeting

1. Cost Estimation and Budgeting Chapter 8

2. Learning Goals • Understand the various types of common project costs. • Recognize the difference between various forms of project costs. • Apply common forms of cost estimation for project work, including ballpark estimates and definitive estimates. • Understand the advantages of parametric cost estimation and the application of learning curve models in cost estimation. • Discern the various reasons why project cost estimation is often done poorly. • Apply both top-down and bottom-up budgeting procedures for cost management. • Understand the uses of activity-based budgeting and time-phased budgets for cost estimation and control. • Recognize the appropriateness of applying contingency funds for cost estimation.

3. From PMBOK Guide 2004

4. Cost Management • Cost management has been defined to encompass data collection, cost accounting, and cost control. • Cost accounting and cost control serve as the chief mechanisms for identifying and maintaining control over project costs. • Cost estimation processes create a reasonable budget baseline for the project.

5. Cost Management • Involves taking financial report information and applying it to projects • Creates an accountability to maintain a clear sense of money management • Encompasses data collection, cost accounting and cost control Cost a.k.a expenses

6. Common Sources of Project Cost • Labor • Total cost associated with the hiring and paying of various personnel • Materials • Supplies needed during project execution • Subcontractors • Cost for subcontracted labor and services • Equipment & facilities • Travel

7. Types of Costs - classifications • Direct vs. Indirect • Direct cost are clearly assigned to a specific aspect of the project • Indirect cost are overhead cost of the project including general administration • Recurring (RE) vs. Nonrecurring (NRE) • Recurring are ongoing expenses (i.e. labor) • Nonrecurring are typically a onetime expense (i.e. training) • Fixed vs. Variable • Fixed cost are cost that do not change based on volume usage (i.e. rental rate on a copy machine) • Variable cost do change based on usage (i.e. paper for the copy machine) • Normal vs. Expedited • Normal are expected as part of the routine process • Expedited are unplanned cost to speed up the project execution

8. Calculating Direct Labor Costs X X X =

9. Expedited Recurring Variable Indirect Normal Direct Fixed Costs Examples Cost Classifications Non-recurring Other project cost?

10. Cost Estimating • The first step in determining if a project can be done profitably • Creates a reasonable budget baseline • Identifies needed resources • Creates a time based budget for the needed resources

11. Cost Estimation • The more clearly you can define the projects’ cost categories in the beginning, the less need there is for estimation • It is best to cost out each work package individually, rather than creating an overall project cost • Methods of cost estimation • Ballpark - gueestimate ±30% accuracy • Comparative – based on history ±15% accuracy • Feasibility – based on standard tables ±10% accuracy • Definitive – once uncertainty is removed ±5% accuracy When should each of these be used?

12. Learning Curves in Cost Estimating • Cost estimating typically assumes a steady rate at which work is done • Time activity 1 = Time activity 2 = Time activity n • Experience teaches us that repetition of activities often leads to a reduction of needed time to complete a future task • Research shows that performance improves by a constant fixed percentage each time production doubles • Ultimately, project budgets must be adjusted since learning curves are likely to occur

13. Learning Curves Each doubling of output results in a reduction in time to perform the last iteration.

14. Learning Curve Model • Your customers expect deflationary pricing

15. Learning curve example • Example 1 • Assume you are a project cost engineer calculating the cost of a repetitive activity for your project. • The initial output time for the first unit produced is 12 hours and the second unit is 10 hours. • There are a total of 20 iterations of this activity required for the project. • Determine learning rate and the steady state rate. • Example 2 • Problem 7 page 270 See learning curve example.xls

16. Problems with Cost Estimation In spite of the best laid plans, various issues can affect accurate project estimates • Low initial estimates • Unexpected technical difficulties • Lack of project scope definition • Specification changes • External factors

17. WBS Project Plan Scheduling Budgeting Creating a Project Budget • Top-down • Bottom-up • Activity-based costing (ABC) The budget, is a plan that identifies the resources, goals, and schedule that allows a firm to achieve those goals.

18. Top-down Budgeting • An approach that seeks to get top management input first to create an overall project cost • Cost allowances are passed down level-by-level, broken into allocated pieces for each task • Advantage: History shows that top management typically estimates pretty well and causes good budgetary discipline and cost control • Disadvantage: All successive levels need to fit their expenses within the allowable spend already chosen Aggregate level of safety factor

19. Bottom-up Budgeting • Starts with the WBS to apply direct and indirect cost to specific project activities • Cost allowances are aggregated level-by-level, until a total project budget is determined • Advantage: Emphasizes the need to create detailed project plans to be able to acquire necessary resources • Disadvantage: Reduces top management control to an oversight function Safety factor at each detailed step

20. Activity-Based Costing ABC A budgeting method that assigns cost first to activities and then to the project based on each project’s use of the resources. • Assign costs to activities that use resources • Identify cost driversassociated with this activity (i.e. material, labor) • Compute a cost rate per cost driver unit or transaction (i.e. labor rate/hour) • Multiply the cost driver rate times the volume of cost driver units used by the project (the more a resource is used, the more it drives cost)

21. Sample Project Budget Example

22. Time-Phased Budget Example

23. Budget Tracking Planned vs. Actual Example

24. Budget Contingencies The allocation of extra funds to cover uncertainties and improve the chance of finishing on time. (safety factor) Contingencies are needed because • Project scope may change • Murphy’s Law is always present • Cost estimation must anticipate task interaction costs • Normal conditions are rarely encountered Access to these funds should serve as your first warning of project troubles. Cost control needs to be employed.

25. Discussion Questions • Describe an environment in which it would be common to bid for contracts with low profit margins. What does this environment suggest about the competition levels? • How has the global economy affected the importance of cost estimation and cost control for many project organizations? • Why is cost estimation such an important component of project planning? Discuss how it links together with the Work Breakdown Structure and project schedule? • Imagine you were developing a software package for your company’s intranet. Give examples of the various types of costs (labor, materials, equipment and facilities, subcontractors, etc.) and how they would apply to your project.

26. Discussion Questions • Give reasons both in favor of and against the use of personal time charge as a cost estimate for a project activity. • Think of an example of parametric estimating in your personal experience, such as the use of a cost multiplier based on a similar, past cost. Did parametric estimating work or not? Discuss the reasons why. • Put yourself in the position of a project customer. Would you accept the cost adjustments associated with learning curve effects or not? Under what circumstances would learning curve costs be appropriately budgeted into a project? • Consider the common problems with project cost estimation and recall a project with which you have been involved. Which of these common problems did you encounter most often? Why?

27. Discussion Questions • Would you prefer the use of bottom-up or top-down budgeting for project cost control? What are the advantages and disadvantages with each approach? • Why do project teams create time-phased budgets? What are their principle strengths? • Project contingency can be applied to projects for a variety of reasons. List three of the key reasons why a project organization should consider the application of budget contingency.