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Programa ONUDI - LAC

Programa ONUDI - LAC. Research and Statistics Branch. Reunión de Expertos ONUDI/GRULAC Programa Estratégico Regional 15-17 Noviembre 2006 Sala de Conferencias II, 7 piso, Edificio C, VIC, Viena. Reunión de Expertos ONUDI/GRULAC Programa Estratégico Regional 15-17 Noviembre 2006

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Programa ONUDI - LAC

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  1. ProgramaONUDI - LAC Research and Statistics Branch Reunión de Expertos ONUDI/GRULAC Programa Estratégico Regional 15-17 Noviembre 2006 Sala de Conferencias II, 7 piso, Edificio C, VIC, Viena Reunión de Expertos ONUDI/GRULAC Programa Estratégico Regional 15-17 Noviembre 2006 Sala de Conferencias II, 7 piso, Edificio C, VIC, Viena

  2. “Selected Development Challenges – Contribution to Formulation of theStrategic Regional Programme for Latin America 2007-2009” S. Miranda-da-Cruz Director – Research & Statistics Latin American Expert Group Meeting Vienna, Austria – 15-17 November 2006

  3. Executive Summary (1)Within the last 50 years few economies have been able to overcome the challenges of development & become really competitive. In those few cases there are concrete indications that industry has played a key role; (2)Although the role of industry in accelerating growth needs to be better understood, there are also indications that industrial policies applied under the appropriate framework have a major impact in the process; (3)To increase the knowledge of the appropriate framework & policies for industrial growth UNIDO has been carrying out several activities based on rigorous theoretical & methodologically advanced empiricalanalyses; (4)As a result of the analyses selected development challenges are shown as well as their linkage to the proposed “Strategic Regional Programme for Latin America”.

  4. Sinopsis (1)En los últimos 50 añospocas economíashan logrado superar los retosaldesarrollo alcanzando así real competitividad. Dichos casos proporcionan índices concretos del importante papel jugado por laindustria; (2)Aunque se requieren más análisis acerca del papel de la industria como acelerador del crecimiento, existen claras indicaciones del impacto trascendental de las políticas industriales aplicadas bajo el marco apropiado; (3)Para mejorar el conocimiento sobre el marco y las políticas apropiadaspara el crecimiento industrial la ONUDI desarrolla actividades basadas en rigurososanálisis teóricos y empíricos metodológicamente avanzados; (4)Como resultado de estosanálisis,se exponen retosal desarrolloasí como su vínculo con el “Programa Regional Estratégico para América Latina”propuesto.

  5. 2,593 ASIA 2,457 Exp. 8,974 1,123 NORTH AMERICA 1,799 3,827 WESTERN EUROPE 3,747 Imp. 9,244 311 Central & East. Europe/ Baltic St./ CIS 257 459 LATIN AMERICA 432 436 MIDDLE EAST 353 226 AFRICA 199 Global Trade at a Glance – (Billion US$) Hong Kong Malaysia ROK Singapore Taiwan/PRC MDGs Source: UNCTAD 2004; UNIDO-BO Analysis – (app. data)

  6. 1 4 Rise over time in per capita income (through productivity growth) 1.Capital &2. TechnicalChanges (i) Allocation of prod. factors; & (ii) Increase of productivity (Incentives/Policies & Market Forces) Integration into international economy (i) Structural Changes; (ii) Sustained Nature (econ./; social; environment); (iii) Synergies & Mutual Reinforcement 3 Industrial Perspective: Expansion & dev. of ind. sector over time period that benefits economy & society at large 2 Selected Aspects of an Economic Process Economic Growth Rigorous Theoretical & Methodologically Advanced Empirical Analyses Policy Making

  7. (1) Diagnosis/ Assessment Structural changes Non-recommendable projects (2) Projects & Programmes Government Objectives Extraction of rationale behind sectoral/regional experiences (3) Ind. Policy Models Analysis of Impact of Industrial Policy Models Cycle of Industrial PolicyFormulation, Implementation & Evaluation

  8. IV IV. Governance Ability to use good public & corporate governance UNIDO & Sustainable Industrial Development - SID I. Economic Ability to Sustain Economic Growth; II. Social - Population (Employment) Ability to growth at a rate that can absorb the labour force of the country & offer equal opportunities to all; III. Environmental Ability to reach economic & social targets (challenges) without disrupting environment.

  9. New Pheaton Factory in Germany.pps

  10. The South Africa Auto Sector

  11. World Technology Frontiers, 1960 and 2000 World 120000 Frontier 2000 100000 80000 Tech. Acquisition Output per Worker 60000 40000 Frontier 1960 20000 0 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 Capital per Worker “The World Technology Frontier”The Shift of the Frontier over Time Source:UNIDO – Isaksson, 2005

  12. Contribution # 1 to Formulation of the Strategic Reg. Programme for LA 2007-2009” I – Productivity Performance (i)World Productivity Database; (ii)Measurement of Manufacturing Productivity; (iii)Health, Ind. Development & Productivity Growth; (iv)World Productivity Report

  13. Contributions # 2 & # 3 to Formulation of the Strategic Reg. Programme for LA 2007-2009” II – Ind., Trade, Investments& Growth (i)Ind., Trade & Growth I: Theory & Some Evidences (ii)Ind., Trade & Growth II: The Role of Human Capital/Knowledge (iii)FDI & Industrial Development III – Country & Regional Assessments (i)Prospects for Sustainable Industrial Growth

  14. … it seems that the most effective way to assess the “Prospects for Sustainable Industrial Growth” is through a combination of analysis involving information at the “MACRO” & at the “SECTORAL”(up to“MICRO”)levels… UNIDO Member States SECTORAL (Sectoral Analysis) Perspective MACRO Perspective Prospects for Sustainable Industrial Growth

  15. Analytical FrameworkAssessment based on following parameters: • UNIDO Competitive Ind. Performance Index • Social characteristics (Population, poverty, health and literacy) • Physical characteristics (Territorial extension, land availability, machinery, roads, telephone mainlines) • Macroeconomic analysis (GDP growth, employment, inflation, balance of payments, productivity) • Trade analysis (Manufactured imports and exports, trade balance) • Industrial production (MVA) • Science & Technology (S&T) (R & D, royalties, imported capital goods, scientific journals) • Environment & Energy Africa Asia Europe/CSI Latin America (i) Colombia (ii) Ecuador Source:UNIDO-Analysis – (2006)

  16. 90 1985 JPN 80 1998 JPN SGP Exponential Linear MLY 70 KOR TWN 60 THL 50 Share of MHT Exports in Total Manufacturing Exports (%) KOR SGP MLY 40 CPR TWN IDN 30 THL 20 IND IND 10 IDN CPR 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Share of Manufactured Exports in Total Exports (%) Challenges on Sustainable DevelopmentThe Process of Catching Up Technologically (Source: UNIDO Industrial Development Report 2002/2003) Cont. # 4 – Statistical Information & SCOREBOARD Degrees of difficulty:

  17. Scoreboard 1.INDICATION of the POSITION of the COUNTRY in TERMS of MANUFACTURING in the INT’L SCENARIO (i) Based on the UNIDO Industrial Development Scoreboard The “Macro” Perspective 2.COUNTRY ANALYSIS based on STATISTICAL & NON-STATISTICAL INFORMATION (ii) Social characteristics(Population, poverty, health and literacy) (iii) Physical characteristics (Territorial extension, land availability, machinery, roads, telephone mainlines) (iv) Macroeconomic analysis (GDP growth, employment, inflation, balance of payments, productivity) (v) Trade analysis(Manufactured imports and exports, trade balance) (vi) Industrial production(Manufactured Value Added – MVA) (vii) Science and Technology (S&T) (R & D, royalties, imported capital goods, scientific journals) (viii) Environment & Energy

  18. (i)Int’lEnv. Conventions & (ii)Specific Programmes &Projects Environmental Sustainability – Present & Future Requirements – 1. Land (soil/desertification); 2. Water; 3. Solid Wastes (& hazardous); 4. Air Emissions (CO2 & SO2); 5. Energy. Source: UNIDO Analysis

  19. Patterns of Tech-knowledge Transfer – UNIDO Provider Absorber/Adapter Recipient

  20. (C) Energy Use Optimization Cycle (D) Energy Supply Optimization Cycle The ‘Energy Sector’ at UNIDO (B) Energy Matrix at Year (X + 15-25) (A) Energy Matrix at Year X (Present) Source:UNIDO – Miranda-da-Cruz, 2006

  21. (1) Diagnosis/ Assessment (C) Energy Use Optimization Cycle (2) Tech-Knowledge Absorption & Development (4) Policy Implementation (3) Policy Formulation The ‘Energy Sector’ at UNIDO Source:UNIDO – Miranda-da-Cruz, 2006

  22. (1) Diagnosis/ Assessment (D) Energy Supply Optimization Cycle (2) Tech-Knowledge Absorption & Development (4) Policy Implementation (3) Policy Formulation The ‘Energy Sector’ at UNIDO Source:UNIDO – Miranda-da-Cruz, 2006

  23. Economic Growth S&T in Developing Countries Retentionof HR developed or attracted Tech-Knowledge Absorption & Development guided Human Resources Development Source:UNIDO Analysis

  24. 1 4 Rise over time in per capita income (through productivity growth) 1.Capital &2. TechnicalChanges (i) Allocation of prod. factors; & (ii) Increase of productivity (Incentives/Policies & Market Forces) Integration into international economy (i) Structural Changes; (ii) Sustained Nature (econ./; social; environment); (iii) Synergies & Mutual Reinforcement 3 Industrial Perspective: Expansion & dev. of ind. sector over time period that benefits economy & society at large 2 Selected Aspects of an Economic Process Economic Growth Rigorous Theoretical & Methodologically Advanced Empirical Analyses Policy Making

  25. 1. Aerospace/Satellite 2.Biotechnology Molecular Biology 3.Environment [& Energy] 4.Fine Chemistry 5.Fine Mechanics 6.Inf. Technology Telecommunication Microelectronics + Software Challenges on Sustainable DevelopmentParameters linked to SID Activities in Science & Technology(Competitiveness) • 7.New Materials • Ceramics/Metals/Fibres • 8.Nutraceuticals (Health) • Biotech. + Fine Chemistry • 9.Medical Instrumentation • 10.Microelectronics • 11.Robotics [& Nano-tech.] • Microelectronics + Fine Mechanics • 12.Software Source:UNIDO-BO Analysis, (2001)

  26. Activities in Science & Technology – TECHNICAL CHANGES(Ind. & S&T – I) 1. Aerospace/Satellite – (Precision Agriculture; Agro-industry – Agro. Ind.; Environment; Climate Disaster Management); 2. Biotechnology – (Agriculture; Pharmaceutical Ind. – Ph. Ind.; Agro-industry – Agro. Ind.); 3. Environment [& Energy] – All Ind. Manufacturing Sectors (AIMS); Health “Industry”; 4. Fine Chemistry – (Chemical; Ph. Ind.; Agro. Ind. [Sugar]); 5. Fine Mechanics – (Pr. Control/Automation; Robotics; AIMS); 6. Information Technology – (Telecommunication; AIMS; “Service Industry); Source:UNIDO-BO Analysis, (2001)

  27. Activities in Science & Technology – TECHNICAL CHANGES(Ind. & S&T – II) 7. Medical Instrumentation “Health Industry” (Preventive Medicine); 8. New Materials Automotive; Energy Motor System; “Health Industry”; Agro-Industry (Non-food Agricultural manufactured Products); 9. Nutraceuticals - (“Health Ind.”/Preventive Medicine); 10. Microelectronics Information; Automation (Process Control); AIMS; 11. Robotics [& Nano-tech.] - (Process Control; Automation; AIMS; Health Industry) 12. Software - (Automation; AIMS; “Service Industry”) Source:UNIDO-BO Analysis, (2001)

  28. Trade Transportation Imports Imports Imports Agricultural & Livestock Production Agricultural & Livestock Processing Processed & Natural Agricultural & Livestock Storage & Distribution Processed & Natural Agricultural & Livestock Consumption Inputs: (i) Agricultural (pesticides, herbicides, etc); (ii) Natural Resources (water, etc); (iii) Packaging Materials Inputs: (i) Chemical; (ii) Biological; (iii) Natural Resources (water, etc); (iv) Packaging Materials Inputs: (i) Chemical; (ii) Biological; (iii) Natural Resources; (iv) Packaging Materials; etc. Inputs: (i) Chemical; (ii) Biological; (iii) Natural Resources; etc. Exports Exports Trade Trade The ‘Agro-Industrial Sector’ at UNIDO Source:UNIDO Analysis; (SMdC)

  29. ‘Agro-Ind. Sector’ & Quality Management at UNIDO Transportation Imports Imports Imports Agricultural & Livestock Production Agricultural & Livestock Processing Processed & Natural Agricultural & Livestock Storage & Distribution Processed & Natural Agricultural & Livestock Consumption Source:UNIDO Analysis; (SMdC) Inputs: (i) Agricultural (pesticides, herbicides, etc); (ii) Natural Resources (water, etc); (iii) Packaging Materials Inputs: (i) Chemical; (ii) Biological; (iii) Natural Resources (water, etc); (iv) Packaging Materials Inputs: (i) Chemical; (ii) Biological; (iii) Natural Resources; (iv) Packaging Materials; etc. Inputs: (i) Chemical; (ii) Biological; (iii) Natural Resources; etc. Exports Exports

  30. Patterns of Tech-knowledge Transfer – UNIDO One source/one or more absorbers Provider Absorber/Adapter Recipient Ad.:Faster; Des.:(i) Highly dependent on provider; (ii) Less effective capacity build up

  31. Patterns of Tech-knowledge Transfer – UNIDO Multiple sources/one or more absorbers Provider Absorber/Adapter Recipient Ad.:(i) Less dependent on one provider; (ii) More effective capacity build up; Des.: Slower

  32. Tech-knowledge Provider Absorber/Adapter Recipient UN UN Ministry of Environment & other Ministries Recipient Enterprises Recipient Enterprises Multiple Sources Imp. of Int’l Environmental Conventions Capacity Build Up

  33. S&T in Developing Countries 1. Strong Government Leadership; 2. Strong Research Base; 3. Protection of IPR(Intellectual Property Rights); 4.Entrepreneurial Culture; 5. Ability toattract key People; 6. Access to Capital; 7. Access to Infra. Net. & Clusters; 8.Synergies & Mutual Reinforcement. Source:UNIDO-BO Analysis under “MIT/GoC/UNIDO Programme” (Aug. 2002)

  34. CyT en países en desarrollo 1.Fuerte liderazgo gubernamental; 2.Sólida base de investigación; 3. Protección del DPI (Derechos de Propiedad Intelectual); 4. Culturaempresarial; 5.Capacidad de atraerpersonas claves; 6. Acceso al capital; 7.Acceso aredes de infraestructura y clusters; 8.Sinergias y refuerzo mutuo. Source:UNIDO-BO Analysis under “MIT/GoC/UNIDO Programme” (Aug. 2002)

  35. (1) Diagnosis/ Assessment Structural changes Non-recommendable projects (2) Projects & Programmes Government Objectives Methodology High-level advisory services Extraction of rationale behind sectoral/regional experiences (3) Advisory Models Why Advisory Models? Cycle of UNIDO’s Assistance (High-level Advisor to Member States)

  36. 2000 GDP (US$ 1.07 trillion) Projection (~ 7.2 %/year) INVESTMENTS US$ 300 billion/year ODA - U$ 6 billion FDI - U$ 40 billion < 5 % Primary > 80 % Secondary 15 -20 % Tertiary Gov.+ Private Sector U$254 billion 2005 GDP (US$ 1.78 trillion) Probability > 90 % INVESTMENTS US$ 960 billion/year ODA - U$ 6 billion FDI - U$ 60 billion 10 % Primary < 50 % Sec. > 30 % Tertiary Gov. + Private Sector U$900 billion CHINA – UNIDO Impact through Models ≈ 2.0% ≈ 0.6% ≈ 6% ≈ 13% …Advisory Models as an effective way to provoke impact in small & particularly in medium & large-scale economies, as the case of CHINA… Source:UNIDO-BO Analysis

  37. (i)3% of Land Mass; (ii)20% of Pop.; (iii)45% of GDP; (iv)70% of all: (a) int’l trade& (b) inv. 2 3 5 1 4 China – Distribution of SPX Centres in the Country

  38. Patterns of Tech-knowledge Transfer – UNIDO Multiple sources/one or more absorbers Provider Absorber/Adapter Recipient Ad.:(i) Less dependent on one provider; (ii) More effective capacity build up; Des.: Slower

  39. (i)3% of Land Mass; (ii)20% of Pop.; (iii)45% of GDP; (iv)70% of all: (a) int’l trade& (b) inv. 2 5 3 1 4 China – Distribution of SPX Centres in the Country

  40. Conclusions (1)As part of the “Strategic Regional Programme for Latin America – 2007/2009” it is suggested to strengthenthe capacity in the Region oflinking technology acquisition, industrial development & accelerated growth; (2)As first step it is proposed that a structure for identifying the “Prospects for Sustainable IndustrialGrowth” to be used as instrument for formulation & evaluation of industrialpolicies be established in each country of the Region; (3)Technology acquisition seems fundamental for industrial development & accelerated sustainable growth. There seems to be key variations in the patterns of transfer that once better understood & applied shall have a critical role in speeding up growth in the Region; (4)With the a/m mechanisms, industrial policies shall have higher impact in accelerating sustainable growth;

  41. Conclusiones (1)Como parte del "Programa Regional Estratégico para América Latina - 2007/2009" se sugiere reforzar la capacidad en la Región de vincular la adquisición de tecnología, el desarrollo industrial y el crecimiento acelerado; (2)Como primer paso se propone que una estructurapara identificar las "Perspectivas del Crecimiento Industrial Sostenible" se utilice como instrumento de formulación y evaluación de políticas industriales en cada país de la Región; (3)La adquisición de tecnología parece fundamental para el desarrollo industrial y el crecimiento sostenible acelerado. Una vez que se comprendan y apliquen mejor las variaciones claves en los modelos de transferencia, éstos tendrán un papel crítico en la aceleración del crecimiento en la Región; (4)Con dichos mecanismos, laspolíticas industrialestendrán mayor impactoen la aceleración delcrecimientosostenible.

  42. Thank you www.unido.org

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