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TOCSIN: Work package 2 B-U Techno-economic Modeling for China and India in the Global Context

TOCSIN: Work package 2 B-U Techno-economic Modeling for China and India in the Global Context. Richard Loulou Maryse Labriet Amit Kanudia KANLO. Participants. Coordinator: KANLO Participants: UCAMB, IIMVA, TU, HKBU (?). Documentation on TIMES. http://etsap.org/documentation.asp

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TOCSIN: Work package 2 B-U Techno-economic Modeling for China and India in the Global Context

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  1. TOCSIN: Work package 2 B-U Techno-economic Modeling for China and India in the Global Context Richard Loulou Maryse Labriet Amit Kanudia KANLO

  2. Participants • Coordinator: KANLO • Participants: • UCAMB, IIMVA, TU, HKBU (?) Documentation on TIMES • http://etsap.org/documentation.asp • Two-part article containing a summary description of TIMES and TIAM, available on TOCSIN web site TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  3. Tasks • Task 2.1: Reference Energy System for China, India, and all other World Regions • Leader: IIMVA (replaced by KANLO); time span: mth1 • Task 2.2: TIMES model for China (includes training mm 1-6) • Leader: TU ; time span: mm 2-16 • Task 2.3: TIMES model for India (includes training mm 1-6) • Leader: IIMVA ; time span: mm 2-16 • Task 2.4: Model energy trades and test World model • Leader: KANLO; time span: mm 6-18 • Task 2.5: Construct interfaces for model and for linkages • Leader: KANLO; time span: mm 1-12 • Task 2.6: Simulations for Policy Analysis • Leader: KANLO ; time span: mm 20-30 TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  4. Two key comments • Task 2.1 : RES : as agreed earlier, the RES for all regions must be completely uniformized, and compatible with the RES of the existing TIAM model developed by KANLO for ETSAP since 2002, and actively maintained since. (KANLO should lead this task). • Tasks 2.2 and 2.3: India and China Models: • will be guided by RES established in task 2.1. • Starting points: the databases already developed in TIAM. • Leaders of tasks 2.2 and 2.3 will use VEDA interfaces to review, improve, and refine existing TIAM databases for China and India. TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  5. Common RES • The following qualitative elements constitute the RES: • List of demands for energy services • List of energy forms (primary, final) • List of emissions • The following qualitative and quantitative elements are entirely flexible: • Demand projections • Availability of resources of each type • List of technologies in each sector • Technoeconomic characterization of each technology However: any differences in technological data between regions should be carefully justified, in order to avoid spurious trade effects induced by such discrepancies. TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  6. Sketch of RES in TIAM TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  7. TIAM: 15 regions Africa Australia-New Zealand CanadaCentral and South AmericaChina Eastern EuropeFormer Soviet Union IndiaJapanMexico Middle-EastOther Developing AsiaSouth KoreaUnited StatesWestern Europe TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  8. Schematics of TIAM Climate Module Exogenous forcing Tropospheric O3,HFC, SF6 15 region TIAM Model Energysystem+ Non-energysectors CO2 GHG EMI CO2-eq CH4 Cs CONC ATM RADIATIVE FORCING DT SURFACE N2O σ1 σ1 Linearized etc. DT DEEP CONC OCEAN UP CONC OCEAN LO Climate module  TIMES Integrated Assessment Model Reporting & setting targets (concentration, forcing or temperature) Uncertain parameters TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  9. TIAM RES: Demands for Energy Services (1) TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  10. TIAM RES: Demands for Energy Services (2) * Possible disaggregated demands up to 4 subregions for space conditioning, lighting, and cooking services, in order to take into account geographical variations TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  11. TIAM RES: Demands for Energy Services (3) * Possibly disaggregated demands up to 4 subregions for space conditioning, lighting, and cooking services, in order to take into account geographical variations TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  12. TIAM RES: Demands for Energy Services (4) ** Each energy service is made up of a fixed or variable “recipe” (mix) of more detailed services: steam (boiler), process heat, machine drive, electrolytic service, other, and feedstock. TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  13. TIAM RES: Energy forms TO BE PROVIDED TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  14. TIAM RES: GHG Emissions • CO2 from energy and from industrial processes • CH4 from energy and from agriculture • N2O from energy and from industrial processes However: • No abatement options for CH4 from enteric fermentation or from rice and other cultures (about 55% of total CH4 emitted) TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  15. TIAM RES: GHG Emissions and mitigation options EMISSIONS • CO2 from energy and from industrial processes • Non-CO2 (CH4 and N2O) and non-energy emissions (EMF 21-22): agriculture, manure, landfills, adipic & nitric acid industry, other industrial processes Mitigation options available in TIAM • Energy and technology substitution • Specific CH4 and N2O options • Biological absorption of CO2 • Capture (electricity and hydrogen) and sequestration of CO2 • Demand reduction • No abatement options for CH4 from agriculture (rice), bio burning, and enteric fermentation (up to 60% of total CH4 emitted) TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  16. RES in TIAM: Trade • Endogenous trade: coal, crude oil, 4 refined petroleum products, gas, liquefied gas, CO2 (or GHG) permits  price and amount of traded energy are endogenous the impact on trade of environmental policies is taken into account  may be modified if necessary for TOCSIN TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  17. Interactions within WP2 • KANLO →IIMVA and TU: • Training in using the VEDA interface • Familiarizing with TIAM database • TU ↔ IIMVA ↔ KANLO: collaborate on technology data, on energy resources, etc. • IIMVA , TU → KANLO: provide new improved technology and resource data (using Excel templates) • All teams: collaborate on interpreting results from model TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  18. Interactions with other WP’s • With WP1: implementation of policy instruments • With WP4: Co-design linkage with GEMINI-E3 • Preliminary mechanism was devised late 2006 (see next slide) • With WP4: Participate in linkage of the TIMES/GEMINI-E3 ensemble with WITCH • With WP5: participate in analysis of overall results and decide possible feedbacks to TIMES. • With WP6: participate in dissemination activities TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  19. Preliminary design of TIMES/GEMINI-E3 linkage DM=DRELAS DEMANDS DRIVERS GEMINI-E3 TIMES • ENERGY PRICES • TECHNOLOGY MIX • INVESTMENTS NOTE: Iterations stop when two successive demand vectors are identical TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  20. Milestones & Deliverables • MS1: Data collection for China and India (mm 1-16), including training in VEDA interface (mm 1-6) • MS2 and D2.1: China and India Models (Month 16) • MS3 and D2.2: World Model (Month 18) Should be earlier • MS4: Runs for policy analysis (Months 18-28) • MS5: Contribution to final report (Months 24-30) TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  21. Appendices TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  22. List of countries in multi-country regions TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  23. CO2 sequestration CO2 Capture Power plants Hydrogen plants Industry not incl. (iron and steel,cement, ammonia) Transportation From 3 to 55$/tC Geological, ocean & advanced storage World CUM=4157 GtC From 4 to 12$/tC Depleted oil/gas fields Coal beds Saline aquifers (cheapest) Deep ocean + Mineralization (expensive) Terrestrial sinks World CUM= 98 GtC From 5 to 800$/tC Forestry, soils (Robustmitigation option) Remarks Sources of data: IEA-ETP, EMF 22 (EPA), literature, IPCC, Of course, many uncertainties (reservoirs and biological processes), risk of leakage, permanence TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  24. CH4 options (1) TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  25. CH4 options (2) TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

  26. N2O options TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007

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