1. Introduction to Theory Its not as boring and useless as you might think

2. What is theory? • Not “ivory tower” BS that doesn’t apply to the “real world” • Quite to the contrary: Maahs’ cardinal rule of theory: • EVERY THEORY HAS A POLICY IMPLICATION • Corollary: Every policy implication is derived from a theory

3. Definition of a Theory • Set of statements that explain how and why concepts are related • In our case, what set of concepts explain crime? • Concept = abstract idea that can be measured or “operationalized”

4. How to recognize a good theory • Empirical Support • “Real world data” (observations) • Survey or Experiment • Other Criteria • Scope • Parsimony • A good theory explains a lot with a little

5. Micro and Macro • Micro level theories • Why do some individuals have a higher probability of committing crimes than others? • Biology, psychology, but also sociology • Individual differences, but also environment • Macro level theories • Why do some aggregates have a higher crime rate than others? • Mostly sociology, mostly “culture” or “social structure”

6. Barkan Example • Explaining Bulimia and Anorexia Disorders • Macro • Why “young women?” Why higher rates of these disorders in certain countries? • Barbie doll culture? • Micro • Why, even in countries with high rates of the disorder, do most young women not have the disorder? • Effective parenting, high self-esteem…

7. Establishing Causation • X (Cause) precedes Y (effect) • Causal ordering • X statistically related to Y • Correlation (need not be perfect) • Relationship is not “spurious” • How to rule out spuriousness? • Experimental Designs • Survey Research and Statistical Control

8. The Experimental Design Experimental Group Get “Treatment” ALL SUBJECTS RANDOM ASSIGNMENT MEASURE OUTCOME Control Group (Get “placebo”)

9. Statistical Control • Barkan Example: • Survey reveals that “pimple saturation” related to “time spent listening to rock music” • What would you want to control for? • “HOLDING CONSTANT” or “INDEPENDENT OF” • Similar: Survey reveals that abused children and likely to be violent when they reach adolescence

10. A Brief History of Criminological Theory • Prior to 1700s, no real theory • Humans as “depraved” • Classical School (1750s-late 1800s) • Age of enlightenment (Locke, Rousseau) • Humans as “enlightened” (rational, hedonistic) • Utilitarian Thinkers • Beccaria (Italian Economist) On Crime and Punishment • Bentham (England): focus on English justice system

11. What killed the Classical School? • The percieved failure of classical school reforms • Changing legal code did not “cure” crime • Development of physical sciences • Darwin, Galileo, Newton • There are cause-effect relationships that can be deduced from observation and manipulation • August Compte • Apply this logic to the study of human behavior

12. The Positive School • 1900-Present • Humans as “determined” • Determined by what? • Biology • Psychology • Sociology • Criticims of Positive School • Legal Definitions controlled by those in power • Overly “deterministic” • Criminals as “different” and “inferior”

13. Classical School II: Resurrection • Social Context of the 1970s • Perceived failure of rehabilitation • “Neo-classical” theory • Deterrence theory, Rational Choice theory, Routine Activities Theory • These theories still compete with “positive” theories today.