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Hydrology Calibration

Hydrology Calibration. Phase 5. Calibrators. USGS-MD Jeff Raffensperger Sarah Martucci Joe Vrabel Angelica Gutierrez Gary Fisher. Calibrators. USGS-VA Doug Moyer Alan Simpson Jen Krstolic ICPRB Ross Mandel Julie Kiang. Calibrators. CBP Sara Brandt Jing Wu Kate Hopkins

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Hydrology Calibration

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  1. Hydrology Calibration Phase 5

  2. Calibrators • USGS-MD • Jeff Raffensperger • Sarah Martucci • Joe Vrabel • Angelica Gutierrez • Gary Fisher

  3. Calibrators • USGS-VA • Doug Moyer • Alan Simpson • Jen Krstolic • ICPRB • Ross Mandel • Julie Kiang

  4. Calibrators • CBP • Sara Brandt • Jing Wu • Kate Hopkins • Lewis Linker • Gary Shenk

  5. Status • Consistent with other HSPF calibrations in the literature • Better and more consistent overall than phase4 • Reaching point of diminishing returns

  6. Strategy • Water Balance • Stormflow / Baseflow separation • Base Flow • Storm Flow • Seasonal Changes Adapted From: Users Manual for an Expert System (HSPEXP) for Calibration of the Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran By Lumb, McCammon, and Kittle USGS-WRI Report

  7. Statistics to judge overall calibration • Bias • Base / Storm separation • Recession rates • Model efficiency

  8. Jan 1

  9. Baseflow / Stormflow Stat Fraction of flow that is baseflow (simulated) Bstat = 1 - Fraction of flow that is baseflow (observed) baseflow / total flow (simulated) Bstat = 1 - baseflow / total flow (observed) stormflow / total flow (simulated) Qstat = 1 - stormflow / total flow (observed)

  10. Jan 1

  11. Jan 1

  12. Baseflow / Stormflow Recession Statistic average Simulated recession index Q rec Index = 1 - average Observed recession index quick flow tomorrow ) Average Recession index = Average ( quick flow today

  13. Nash – Sutcliffe Model efficiency (variance of errors) (variance of observed) Computed for daily, log of daily, and monthly values. 1 -

  14. Reported values of N-S efficiency • Often reported, but little information on ‘standards’ of efficiency • Reported daily efficiencies  0.5 - 0.75 • Reported daily log efficiencies  0.5 - 0.75 • Reported monthly efficiencies  0.7 – 0.8

  15. Reported values of N-S efficiency • Often reported, but little information on ‘standards’ of efficiency • Reported daily efficiencies  0.5 - 0.75 • Reported daily log efficiencies  0.5 - 0.75 • Reported Monthly efficiencies  0.7 – 0.8

  16. Reported values of N-S efficiency • Often reported, but little information on ‘standards’ of efficiency • Reported daily efficiencies  0.5 - 0.75 • Reported daily log efficiencies  0.5 - 0.75 • Reported Monthly efficiencies  0.7 – 0.8

  17. Parameter Values

  18. Where are we in relation to p4 • Better overall • More consistent parameterization • Calibrated at many more sites

  19. Status • Consistent with other HSPF calibrations in the literature • Better and more consistent overall than phase4 • Reaching point of diminishing returns • Still a few small areas and issues that need attention in hydrology

  20. Ready for Sediment? • River calibration cannot change significantly • Land calibration must have significant surface runoff

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