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Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Insights from Bart van den Hurk

Climate scientists must effectively communicate uncertainties and their implications, as emphasized by Bart van den Hurk from KNMI. The discussion addresses concerns about anthropogenic greenhouse warming (AGW), highlighting the origins of uncertainties from physical hazards, societal vulnerability, natural variability, and limitations in models and knowledge. With uncertainties comes risk, which is recognized as "politically relevant." The KNMI’06 scenarios, while not definitive forecasts, serve to explore potential future conditions and support societal adaptation. Acknowledging uncertainties is crucial for robust climate science and public discourse.

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Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Insights from Bart van den Hurk

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  1. Climate scientists must communicate uncertainties and their consequences Bart van den Hurk (Involved in KNMI Climate Change Scenarios)

  2. Climate scientists must communicate uncertainties and their consequences Emphasised by antagonists of anthropogenic greenhouse warming (AGW) theory Emphasised by “alarmists” • Originate from • physical hazards • vulnerability of society • perception/political view • Originate from • natural variability • imperfect models & knowledge • unknown future developments If there is uncertainty, there is risk

  3. If there is uncertainty, there is risk uncertainty Defined as (politically) “relevant” by e.g. Dutch Delta Committee Probability risk 0 Average temperature change 2090-2100 relative to 1990 Cannot be claimed

  4. G W W+ G+ Positioning KNMI’06 scenarios • Designed to explore possible future conditions • not presented as forecasts • Supporting adaptation of society to extreme conditions • relevance of different scenarios varies across applications Probability 0 Average temperature change 2090-2100 relative to 1990

  5. Concluding • Uncertainties and risks are connected • Ignoring possibility of AGW or alarmist exaggerating implies strong scientific bias and not in the spirit of KNAW code of conduct • Making future explorations is relevant. Scenarios are useful tools for this

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