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OUTLINE

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OUTLINE

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  1. The Mediterranen Forecasting System: 10 years of developments(and the next ten)N.Pinardi INGV, Bologna, Italy

  2. OUTLINE • MOON: the EuroGOOS Mediterranean ROOS and the Operational Oceanography components • The Observing system achievements • The forecasting system achievements and the quality of the products • The next ten years of developments

  3. The components of operationaloceanography in the Mediterranean Sea:1995-today Numerical models of hydrodynamics and biochemistry at basin scale RT Observing System satellite SST, SLA, VOS-XBT, moored multiparametric buoys, ARGO and gliders End-User applications - Downstream services Numerical models for shelf and coastal areas

  4. LARGE SCALE SHELF SCALE • REPEATED MULTIPARAMETRIC SECTIONS •  SATELLITE AND AERIAL SURVEYS •  COASTAL RADARS •  AUTONOMOUS UNDERWATER • VEHICLES • CABLED MULTIPARAMETRIC STATIONS •  RIVER RUNOFF AND LOADING • MONITORING • SEDIMENT/WQ MONITORING •  MOORED BUOY ARRAYS •  SOOP EXPANDABLE AND ONDULATING INSTRUMENTS • SATELLITE SENSING: • SEA LEVEL, • SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, • SEA SURFACE SALINITY, • COLOR, WINDS •  DRIFTING BUOYS • (SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE) •  GLIDERS OBSERVING SYSTEM • MODEL PHYSICS • Non-Hydrostatic (<1- 5 KM) •  TURBULENCE AND LIGHT • SUBMODELS MODEL PHYSICS  PRIMITIVE EQUATION (> 1-5 KM)  TURBULENCE CLOSURE SUBMODELS DATA ASSIMILATION  KALMAN FILTERS  ADJOINT MODELS • DATA ASSIMILATION • OPTIMAL INTERPOLATION • 3-DVAR, KALMAN FILTER BIOCHEMICAL MODELS  PELAGIC COMPARTMENT  BENTHIC CLOSURE BIOCHEMICAL MODELS  PELAGIC COMPARTMENT  BENTHIC-PELAGIC COUPLING  SEDIMENT DYNAMICS MODELING SYSTEM • ATMOSPHERIC FORCING • OPERATIONAL ANALYSES AND FORECASTS FROM LARGE SCALE MODELS • ATMOSPHERIC FORCING • OPERATIONAL ANALYSES AND FORECASTS FROM LIMITED AREA MODELS

  5. MOON data collection: coverage for the 2004-2008 period gliders M3A Buoy ARGO SOOP

  6. MOON data collection system:Coastal and shelf stations in real time Everydayhourly data to validate the analysis and the forecast

  7. MyOcean V1 MFS system: Dec. 15, 2010 upgrade • MFS (Mediterranean Forecasting system) • Horizontal res: 1/16°x1/16° ~ 6.5Km • Vert res: 72 unevenly spaced levels • Lateral open boundary condition in the Atlantic: nesting in Mercator global model • Coupled wave-current model for wind drag coefficient • 2) Biochemical pelagic forecasting system • (OGS) • Horizontal res: 1/16°x1/16° ~ 6.5Km • Vertical res: 72 unevenly spaced levels • Coupling with MyOcean physics • 10 days forecast every three days

  8. MFS analyses: 10 years of quality increase MOM1.1 +SOFA OPA8.2 +SOFA (sys2b) OPA8.2 +3DVAR (sys3a2) NEMO+3DVAR (sys4a) SEA LEVEL in the Mediterranean 1999 rmse 2009

  9. MFS forecast skill against persistence at the surface Forecast -persistence Temperature RMSE error (deg C) Forecast - analysis Forecast days

  10. The MFS users: Limited area sub-basin, shelf scale models Domain overlaps and in-situ distribution

  11. The next ten years problems • Sustainable and innovative monitoring network at large and shelf/coastal scales • Coupled current-waves and atmosphere-ocean models • Data assimilation for all observational sensors, and for coupled ocean-atmosphere and coupled physics and pelagic biochemistry models • Ensemble predictions and re-casting of forecast in probabilistic terms • Re-analyses at high resolution for the past 100 years • Involve users in forecast assessment through donwstream services

  12. The sustainable ocean observatory and laboratory: food, transport, energy and environmental monitoring together An artist view of the Ocean integrated Laboratory and Observatory It can be ‘relocatable’ and adaptive!

  13. Assimilation of gliders observations: large improvements from repeated, across shelf tracks Along path daily averaged glider observations Model without Glider assimilation Model with Glider assimilation

  14. Ensemble predictions: now the first prototypes Initial condition spread Sea Surface Height 10-th fcst day spread Initial condition ensemble spread has amplified at the 10 fcst day in mesoscale regions

  15. In conclusions ERROR: to hear the sea sound you have first to download quicktime and then download the forecast!