Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Fire Weather Services Paula Davidson

1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Fire Weather Services Paula Davidson NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 Rev 11/14/02

2. Outline • Team Composition • Vision/Benefits • Goals/Targets • Key Information Gaps • Key Solutions • Outstanding R & D Needs • Summary

3. Fire Weather ServicesTeam Composition • Rusty Billingsley (NWS/OCWWS) • Phillip Bothwell (NWS/NCEP) • Paula Davidson (NWS/OST) • John McGinley (OAR) • (NESDIS)

4. Fire Weather ServicesVision / Benefits • Vision • Eliminate weather-related wildland fire death/injury • Reduce fire management costs and health impacts, with more timely and accurate forecasts • Increasing lead times for Red Flag / critical fire weather helps firefighting and emergency response • Tactical efficiency improvements: Each 1% reduction in average time of Type-I deployments saves ~ $10 M • Strategic efficiency improvements: Reducing escaped fires by 1 each year saves ~ $12.5 M

5. Fire Weather ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12 NA= not presently collected ** WR only; national statistics not available

6. Fire Weather ServicesKey Information Gaps • Inadequate density of observations – especially remote areas • Inadequate time and space resolution for fire weather and smoke forecasts • Insufficient forecast/guidance product coverage • Insufficient verification • Insufficient coordination and dissemination from obs to models to forecast products • Need to convey forecast uncertainty “BISCUIT” FIRE

7. Fire Weather ServicesKey S&T Solutions

8. Fire Weather ServicesKey S&T Solutions (Continued)

9. 02 05 06 07 08 10 04 09 11 12 03 Fire Weather Services Key S&T Solutions Ingest Surface Observations Ingest Targeted Observations Observations GFS 4DDA Deployment DA/Models 8km WRF Advanced Ensembles OTE Chem-WRF 3km HRW National standardized verification Automated Verification Forecast Techniques DTE Dec Assist Tools NDFD R&D Dissemination Adv comms for IMETs Training

10. Fire Weather ServicesOutstanding R&D Needs • Improve high-resolution prediction methods for complex terrain • Develop methods for verifying spot forecasts, given flexible, variable observational data • Improve methods to ingest incident-specific observations into high-resolution forecast models and guidance • Improve understanding of convection as related to critical fire weather • Develop methods for forecasting, verifying dry thunderstorms • Improve methods to forecast smoke impacts • Develop probabilistic methods for fire weather forecasting • Couple fire-behavior to fire weather models

11. Fire Weather ServicesSummary Vision Eliminate Weather-related Wildland Fire Death/Injury Reduce Costs • R&D Needs • Improve high-resolution • prediction in complex terrain • Develop methods to verify spot forecasts • Improve methods to ingest incident-specific observations • Improve understanding of convection in critical fire weather • Improve methods to forecast dry thunderstorms; smoke impacts • Develop probabilistic forecast methods for fire weather • Improve Model Resolution and Accuracy • New and Improved Forecast Techniques • Integrate Observations • Improved coordination/ dissemination Increasing Performance • Probabilistic Techniques • Coupled Hazards Models • Ingest Targeted Obs. 2002 2007 2012 2020

12. Fire Weather ServicesBACK-UP

15. Proposed Performance Measure: Red Flag Warning

16. Proposed Performance Measure: Red Flag Warning