1 / 19

Advancing Science and Technology for Improved Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

This document outlines a comprehensive plan for enhancing the science and technology (S&T) used in forecasting tropical cyclones. Led by Daniel Meléndez and a team of experts from various meteorological agencies, the vision aims for a 2025 target of reducing the 48-hour track forecast error to 85 nautical miles and intensity forecast error to 12 knots. Key initiatives include improving data assimilation, enhancing observation capabilities, and overcoming barriers in rapid-intensity change forecasting. The ultimate goal is to save lives and mitigate property loss through enhanced forecasting and response capabilities.

kueng
Télécharger la présentation

Advancing Science and Technology for Improved Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Tropical Cyclones Daniel Meléndez NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

  2. Outline • Team Composition • Vision / Benefits • Goals / Targets • Key Information Gaps • Key Solutions • Outstanding R & D Needs • Summary

  3. Tropical CyclonesTeam Composition • Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST) • Scott Kiser (NWS/OS) • Richard Knabb (TPC) • Miles Lawrence (TPC) • Xiaofan Li (NESDIS) • Frank Marks (OAR/HRD) • Morris Bender (GFDL) • Scott Braun (NASA/GFDL) • Gregg Engel (JTWC) • Naomi Surgi (NCEP/EMC) • Robert Tuleya (NCEP) • Frank Wells (WFO/Guam) • Hugh Willoughby (OAR/HRD)

  4. Tropical CyclonesVision / Benefits • 2025 Vision • 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm • 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt • Save Lives / Enhanced Public Safety • Improved Response Capability of Emergency Managers • Mitigate Property Loss • Economic Impact Increasingly Complex (coastal development….)

  5. On Track Low Risk High Risk Tropical CyclonesGoals/Targets to FY 12

  6. Low Risk High Risk On Track Hydrologic ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12

  7. Tropical CyclonesKey Information Gaps (not ranked) • Improved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing Storms • More Accurate Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast • Understanding of Model Guidance Uncertainty • More Precise Position of Circulation Center • Higher Resolution Storm Wind Data

  8. Tropical CyclonesKey S&T Solutions

  9. Tropical CyclonesKey S&T Solutions

  10. 10 02 05 06 07 08 04 09 11 12 03 Tropical Cyclones Key S&T SolutionsCurrent Programmatic Phase Targeted Obs* *Aircraft Upgrades (SFMR, GPS dropsondes…) Observations Adaptive Obs *Airborne Upgrade Radar Wind DA Deployment *Advanced DA of Satellite Data OTE *Oceanic DA DA/Models HWRF 7km *Hurricane WRF DTE Core Init *GFS Ensembles R&D *Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques *JHT Tech Transfer Enabling Process

  11. Tropical CyclonesOutstanding R&D Needs • Rapid Intensity Changing Storms • Shear Effects on Track and Intensity • Statistical “Guidance-on-Guidance” on Model Output • Improved Data Assimilation • Improved Model Physics (microphysics, air-sea fluxes…) • Model Physics Sensitivities • Ensemble Techniques • Adaptive Observations/Targeting • Predictability Limits

  12. Tropical CyclonesSummary • Vision • 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm • 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt • R&D Needs • Rapid Intensity Changing Storms • Shear Effects on Track & Intensity • Statistical “Guidance-on-Guidance • Improved Data Assimilation • Improved Model Physics • Model Physics Sensitivities • Ensemble Techniques • Adaptive Observations • Predictability Limits • Implement Hurricane WRF • Data Assimilation • Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques • Expand Adaptive Strategies • New Satellite Remote Sensing Increasing Performance • Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades • Expand Targeted Observations Joint Hurricane Testbed 2002 2007 2012 2020

  13. Tropical CyclonesSummary • Improved track and intensity performances depend mostly on advances in numerical prediction/data assimilation • Intensity error performance is virtually “flat” – awaits significantly improved storm core specification and numerical forecasting R & D

  14. Tropical Cyclones BACKGROUND SLIDES

  15. Backup

  16. Backup

  17. Tropical CyclonesPrimary Customers/Partners • Public • Media • Federal, State, Local Government • DOD • 53 WRS • State EMA’s • WMO RA-IV • Mariners • Private Sector

  18. Tropical CyclonesKey Products/Services

  19. Tropical CyclonesS & T Roadmap • (Insert Spreadsheet)

More Related