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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services

This document outlines a comprehensive plan by the NWS Science and Technology Committee, led by Richard Fulton, focusing on the enhancement of hydrologic services. It details team composition, vision, goals, and targets aimed at improving probabilistic forecasts and warnings related to water excess and deficits. The plan identifies key information gaps and proposes solutions, including the need for advanced QPE techniques, high-resolution hydrologic models, and better integration of radar and satellite data. Emphasizing public safety, economic benefits, and reliability, this roadmap serves as a strategic guide for innovation in hydrological forecasting.

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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services

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  1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Richard Fulton NWS Science & Technology Committee September 17, 2002

  2. Outline • Team Composition • Vision / Benefits • Goals / Targets • Key Information Gaps • Key Solutions • Outstanding R & D Needs • Summary

  3. NWS Richard Fulton (OHD / HL) David Reynolds (WFO Monterey, CA) Dong-Jun Seo (OHD / HL) John Schaake (OHD / HL) Edwin Danaher (NCEP / HPC) Thomas Donaldson (OCWWS / HSD) OAR Kevin Kelleher (NSSL) Marty Ralph (ETL) Brooks Martner (ETL) NESDIS Roderick Scofield (ORA) Robert Kuligowski (ORA) Hydrologic ServicesTeam Composition

  4. Hydrologic ServicesVision / Benefits Vision Accurate, Graphically-Based, Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess and Deficits More Frequently at More Locations • $240M/yr in Flood Loss Savings and $520M/yr in Economic Benefits to Water Resource Managers (2002 NHWC Report)

  5. Low Risk High Risk On Track Hydrologic ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12

  6. Hydrologic ServicesKey Information Gaps • Quantitative Precipitation Information (QPE & QPF) Unbiased Precipitation Estimates with Reliability Information Reliable 0-6 Hour Precip. Nowcasts Longer-term, Unbiased Model QPFs • Hydrologic Forecasting High-resolution Flash Flood Forecasts & Warnings Probabilistic River Forecasts Using 0-3 day QPF and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts

  7. Hydrologic ServicesKey S&T Solutions

  8. 10 02 05 06 07 08 04 09 11 12 03 Hydrologic Services Key S&T Solutions Multisensor QPE Prob. QPE Polariz. QPE Observations GOES+POES Hyperspectral GPM Distr. model ESP Hydro DA Deployment DA/Models Region Ens+DA 8km WRF Orographic model OTE JCSDA Fld Fcst Maps Forecast Techniques FFMP DTE QP+Hydro Nowcasts Phased Array Radar Wireless, PDA GIS R&D Enabling Techn. Internet-Next Graphical products Dissemination Prob. QPF products PDSs in Ensemble fcsts, Polariz. radar, Distributed hydro. models Training

  9. Hydrologic ServicesOutstanding R&D Needs • Develop QPE Techniques That Optimally Blend Next-generation Radar, Satellite (e.g, GPM), and Rain Gauge Data • Improve Short-Term Radar-Satellite Precipitation Nowcasting Techniques Blended with NWP Forecasts • Develop High Resolution Hydrologic Forecast Models of Water Excess-Deficit at Ungauged Locations • Develop Ensemble NWP and Hydrologic Model Forecasts with Associated Reliability Information • Improve NWP Model Physics and Increase Assimilation of Existing Observational Datasets • Implement Hydrometeorological Testbeds to Demonstrate & Evaluate Next-Generation Datasets, Forecast Techniques, & Models

  10. Hydrologic ServicesSummary Vision Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess & Deficits More Frequently at More Locations R&D Needs • Better QPEs and QPFs for Input to Advanced Hydrologic Forecast Models • Probabilistic NWP and Hydrologic Models with Higher Resolution, Improved Physics and Data Assimilation • Hydrometeorological Testbeds Increasing Performance Deploy High Resolution Hydrologic Models Enhance Flash Flood Monitoring Tools Location-specific Warnings Graphical, Probabilistic Products Deploy Dual Polarization & Satellite Upgrades On-going Training 2002 2007 2012 2020

  11. Back-up Information

  12. Primary Customers & Partners • Citizens • Emergency Managers, FEMA • Water Resource Managers (dam & hydroelectric plant operators) • Water Transportation and Navigation • Agriculture • Construction Industry • Transportation and Commerce • Municipal Public Works Departments • Federal Agency Cooperators (COE, USGS, USBR, EPA, USDA) • Recreational Users

  13. Key Products & Services Radar-based very short range (0-3 hrs) QPF NWP-based QPF for short and medium ranges HPC/RFC forecaster value-added QPF products for days 1-5 MOS value-added QPF Potential evaporation forecasts • Public river stage and flow forecasts of water excess & deficit • River and flash flood watches and warnings • Forecast discussion products • Radar and satellite precipitation estimates • Rain gauge data products • Flash Flood Guidance products

  14. Hydrologic ServicesS & T Roadmap

  15. Hydrologic ServicesFlash Flood Warning Skill Performance Measures

  16. Hydrologic ServicesQuantitative Precipitation Forecast SkillPerformance Measure

  17. Hydrologic ServicesRiver Flood Warning Skill Performance Measures

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