“Bland Works”: The Traditions of Ontario Politics in the Run Up to the 2011 Election

1. “Bland Works”: The Traditions of Ontario Politics in the Run Up to the 2011 Election Jonathan Malloy Carleton University

2. “I will have to have a new slogan: ‘Bland works.’” Bill Davis, 1980

3. “The polls tell me I’m not the most popular guy. I accept that.” Dalton McGuinty, 2011

4. How has Ontario politics changed in the last 30 years? • Rotation of governing parties • Economic change • Shifts in Canadian federalism • Increasing population diversity • Examined through prism of political culture/political values • Sets the stage for examination of 2011 election

5. The Ontario Political Culture • Wilson (1980): The “Red Tory” province • Ascriptive, elitist, hierarchical, stable, cautious and restrained • Noel (1997) • the imperative pursuit of economic success • assumption of pre-eminence in the Canadian federation • requirement of managerial efficiency in government • expectation of reciprocity in political relationships • the balancing of interests

6. Historic Ontario Political Values Loyalty Pragmatism (“managing prosperity”) Identification with Canada

7. 1980s, 1990s Change • Wilson (1997) “It does appear to be the same old Ontario.”

8. Explaining Political Change 1985 • Poor leadership transition (rural, older image) • PC division over separate school funding 1990 • Voter alienation and discontent (Meech, economy) • Unpopularity of federal PCs • General pragmatic streak in Peterson majority and Rae govts • Changes can be explained by timing and windows of opportunity, rather than underlying value shifts • Loyalty and pragmatism remain; identication with Canada?

9. “Common Sense Revolution” • 1995 PC victory unexpected • Tone of radical policy change • Polarization of Ontario politics; building on Rae years • Harris: Idealogue or opportunist? • Erratic Ernie Eves

10. A New Ontario? • Political change and polarization • Economic restructuring • Federal-provincial disputes • Growing racial and cultural diversity • Loyalty? • Pragmatism? • Identification with Canada?

11. The McGuinty Restoration • Image of bland sincerity • Platform of stability • Pragmatic leadership and policies • pursuit of economic success • assumption of Canadian pre-eminence • managerial efficiency • reciprocity in political relationships • balancing of interests • Reinforced in 2007 election • PC platform offered limited contrast • School funding: retro issue with new twist • John Tory: similar personal image to McGuinty

12. Loyalty, Pragmatism, Canada • Ontario politics again about “managing prosperity” and balancing interests • But increasing assertiveness within Canada • “Interest in things Ontarian” (Wiseman 2007) • Mowat Centre • Fiscal imbalance issues • Popular, or just policy?

13. Does Bland Still Work in 2012? • Minority bargaining • Drummond Report • Cuts and polarization • Continuing management problems (Ornge) • Loyalty? • Pragmatism? • Identification with Canada?

14. 2011 Election • Economic downturn • Decline of manufacturing • Management problems • E-health • Ecotax • Energy mega-projects • PC lead in polls • But…

15. Blurry Choices • PC disconnect between “tax man” attacks and promises of continued/ increased spending • NDP Horwarth platform with pseudo-populist approach • Liberals relied on their stable policy approach

16. All parties lacked serious plans for new economic and fiscal challenges • Campaign and election results suggest pragmatic leadership remains key • Bland worked (mostly) “The polls tell me I’m not the most popular guy. I accept that.”

17. Does Bland Still Work in 2012? • Minority bargaining • Drummond Report • Cuts and polarization • Continuing management problems (Ornge) • Loyalty? • Pragmatism? • Identification with Canada?