Presentation Transcript

1. Hurricane Local Statement Content Quality and Clarity HLS Design Guidance for Weather Forecast Offices Or How to build a better product
2. OBJECTIVES: Understand who the primary target audience is for the HLS. Understand how to prioritize information. Understand where and how to obtain information from emergency management. Understand how to reduce redundancy. Understand how to reduce redundancy. Understand the overall design objectives for the HLS.
3. The HLS is governed by directive 10-601 “Tropical Cyclone Products” The Format is Discussed in detail in the directive, and training is offered for the new formatter GUI. This training does NOT focus on format – but rather product content and clarity. This training will emphasize the content of the Preparedness/Precautionary actions section and the meteorological impacts sections (Storm Surge and Storm Tide, Winds, Inland Flooding, Tornadoes, and non-specific section headers such as Marine Impacts).
4. From directive 10-601 section 7. “WFOs with coastal county responsibilities and selected inland WFOs will issue these segmented products which are very specific and designed to inform media, local decision makers, and the public on present and anticipated storm effects in their county warning area (CWA) and adjacent coastal waters. Keep HLSs as succinct as possible.” Merriam-Webster: Succinct - marked by compact precise expression without wasted words As you know Emergency Managers are Decision Facilitators also tasked with protection of life and property. Decision makers – include others than EMs. (e.g. school system, chamber of commerce)
5. The HLS is the primary tropical cyclone product issued by the WFO for the media and general public. The HLS should not serve as a primary product for emergency managers and other decision makers, but should be developed with emergency management input, as well as other relevant decision makers. This should produce a document that could serve as reference material to these decision makers.
6. UNDERSTANDING PERSPECTIVES a good place to start HLS
7. HLS Design Objective The HLS should be a cooperative effort between the NWS and emergency management to get critical information to the media and public. The design should be to suit the media and general public – much like the SPS and PNS. Create a product which can easily scroll on television or play on NOAA Weather Radio.
8. HLS Fundamental Concepts a macro view Remember: “Keep HLSs as succinct as possible.” Nice and Concise Emphasize Decision Thresholds Emphasize Impacts Use Implicit Terms of Uncertainty for Local Impacts
9. Nice and Concise Merriam-Webster: Concise - marked by brevity of expression or statement : free from all elaboration and superfluous detail Don’t bury the lead. Major threats upfront in situation overview, headlines, and on top of sections. Heavy emphasis on major threats to area. Conversely – don’t emphasize less significant threats. However, never downplay a threat.
10. Nice and Concise Merriam-Webster: Concise - marked by brevity of expression or statement : free from all elaboration and superfluous detail Keep HLS as short as possible without compromising critical information. Segment only when absolutely necessary…avoid over segmentation as it will lead to a lengthy product with considerable redundancy. Limit segmentation to operationally significant areas when possible (and of course VTEC forced segments). Information in the segments should be specific to that segment…otherwise it may be better placed in the overview, or the segment may not be necessary. Operationally significant areas can be defined as areas where similar protective and precautionary actions will be necessary based on the impact of meteorological events.
11. Emphasize Decision Thresholds Coordinate with customers to understand what important threshold values are. Examples of Decision Thresholds:
12. Emphasize Impacts Wherever Possible – not specific meteorological conditions. Example: Flooding → Impact Rainfall → Condition If the forecast is for 4-6 inches of rain, discuss what that amount of rainfall will do (or not do). Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches are expected with passage of the storm. This will result in moderate flooding of most secondary roads in south Florida. Major roadways should remain passable.
13. Uncertainty (confidence) Statements Use implicit statements of uncertainty in local impacts/conditions when necessary. Avoid explicit terms of uncertainty! Avoid use of explicit terms of uncertainty concerning forecast track and intensity – that is the purview of TPC. However, if TPC does mention uncertainty explicitly in their discussion then this can be passed on in the overview section.
14. Uncertainty (confidence) Statements
15. HLS Issuance Times From 7.1.2.3 “HLSs do not need to immediately follow the issuance of a new hurricane advisory. Issuing HLSs midway between advisories maintains a steady flow of information to the media and the public.” It is not required to issue an HLS immediately following the issuance of an advisory from NHC. There is also no requirement to issue within one hour of the NHC issuance. It is good practice to issue the HLS as soon after the issuance of the NHC advisory; this ensures the information remains “fresh”. However, the quality of an HLS should never be compromised by haste.
16. HLS Issuance Times Be aware of emergency management operational cycles and ensure that the latest protective action information is included in the HLS. It may be necessary to hold an HLS pending the arrival of critical information from state or local officials. It may be necessary to issue an abbreviated HLS when changes in watch/warnings/advisories due to VTEC considerations. There is an option to do this in the new HLS formatter.
17. …SITUATIONAL OVERVIEW… This is the place to emphasize major threat Put together good narrative The overview should make a great NWR script. Bulk of HLS message should be in overview. Information in segments should be specific only to that segment Utilize overview to avoid redundancy (avoid redundancy). Situational overview can/should contain main message Many sections need only be in overview watches and warnings storm information areas affected well worded precautionary/preparedness tornadoes etc
18. Situational Overview Example Unless different… no need to include rainfall or flooding impacts in segments WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE WEST FLORIDA COAST. SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS CONCERN WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY AND FLOOD-PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE DIRECTION OF APPROACH THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN RAIN BANDS WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. Unless different…no need to include tornadoes section in segments
19. Sections Section!! …headlines… …new information… …areas affected… …watches/warnings… …storm information… …precautionary/preparedness actions… …winds… …probability of hurricane/tropical storm conditions… …inland flooding… …tornadoes… …(non-specific section header)… …next update…
20. …headlines… Lead With Most important First. Don’t “over” headline – more than 4 probably too many. Example: …A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREA… …MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF… …HURRICANE MOVING OFF WESTERN TIP OF CUBA…
21. …new information… Brief, concise, succinct – to the point . Summarize; no need to include great detail in this section. Example: UPDATED HURRICANE ZEKE INFORMATION FOR THE 11 PM ADVISORY. UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION FOR CLOSING INTERSTATE 790. ADDED STORM SURGE SECTION FOR POTENTIAL 2 TO 4 FOOT STORM TIDES. UPDATED WINDS TO INDICATE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY. ADDED RAINFALL SECTION FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED TORNADOES SECTION FOR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
22. …areas affected… Very brief statement describing area of responsibility. Try to avoid listing counties. Example: THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN Southeast Florida CONCERNING THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE ZEKE.
23. …watches/warnings… What watches/warnings in effect – for where – and what does a watch/warning mean. Note: This is where you define a watch/warning – do not do this elsewhere in the HLS. Example: A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF CONCERN AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS IN THE WATCH AREA.
24. …storm information… Summary of information in tropical cyclone forecast. New formatter will pull information for TCPAT and allow to enter bearings for your local area for storm location. Further Localize for your area when possible.
25. …precautionary/preparedness actions… SO MISUNDERSTOOD! From Section 7.1.3.4 Format “This includes any evacuation recommendations as provided or stated by state and/or local authorities. Listing these actions is particularly important once a tropical cyclone watch or warning is announced.” Primarily an emergency management block – not for meteorological condition or impact information!! (no watch/warning definitions!!) Since this section contains “action” information for the general public, it should almost always be the leading block after the storm information block. Formatter is not going to deliver a precautionary/preparedness action section. Contains general protective action information as well as specific protective action information obtained from emergency managers. This should be a coordinated effort with emergency management to ensure information accuracy.
26. …precautionary/preparedness actions… SO MISUNDERSTOOD! GENERAL PREPAREDNESS… It is probably to exclude or limit personal preparedness information in the HLS, this would make for a very lengthy product (e.g. personal preparedness). It is best to refer them to an agency that can provide more comprehensive guidance on preparing a personal and family disaster plan. One way to provide more detailed information is through the PNS (not the HLS) – and of course with educational outreach throughout the year. A preparedness PNS can be coordinated and approved by emergency management pre-season. Try not to use the HLS to deliver a personal preparedness plan. Generic preparedness information should not be used after protective actions are underway (e.g. evacuation); this section should instead focus on specific protective action information issued by EMs (evacuation, etc).
27. …precautionary/preparedness actions… What should it contain? Evacuation information General protective action information Residents should begin to making their hurricane preparations to protect their homes and businesses…and be ready to evacuate when ordered by emergency management. Closings of schools/government offices/hospitals/state parks/airports/etc Information hotline numbers Transportation information Evacuation routes, road closures, tolls lifted
28. …precautionary/preparedness actions… What should it not contain? Meteorological information winds of between 74 and 96 mph can be expected Watch/Warning definitions or locations a hurricane watch means… the warning extends from… Impact information these winds represent a significant threat to life and property Specific personal protection information (three reasons) residents should stock at least a three day supply of food and water
29. …precautionary/preparedness actions… Why not specific personal preparedness? If specific personal preparedness information included in HLS, it must be complete; because it may be used as preparedness checklist. Other agencies already have complete checklists compiled (along with family planning information). Pass along where to find information in HLS if needed. Personal preparedness information is better handled with a PNS. A PNS can be designed pre-season with EM input, and have ready to release pre-event. Besides, a PNS is a better formatted product for preparedness checklists, information, than the HLS. HLS is usually issued near evacuation or once and evacuation is in effect. PNS
30. Where to Obtain EM Information Almost all county EOCs will produce the following documents (there may be some exceptions with small counties which may combine a few of these products). Each of these documents will usually have an email distribution list to which you may subscribe. Incident Action Plan (IAP) – This is a plan which contains the objectives for the incident strategy and overall specific actions for the next operational period. The plan is developed for each operational period, and the operational period during a tropical system will usually be 12 hours (but may be longer or shorter). Meteorological impacts and effects will figure prominently in the IAP; so it is important to be aware of these operational periods by coordinating with EMs. Situation Report(sitrep) – This report which reflects the status of EM operations (usually an operational update of the progress of the IAP). This will usually be issued once per operational period. Flash Report – Issued when necessary to update operational status, or to report significant or important changes to operations. Media Release – Issued through the county (sometimes via the county sheriffs department of other county entity). Contains information the county wishes to reach to general public; such as evacuation information, road closures, and shelter information.
31. Where to Obtain EM Information Coordination calls - Proceeding, during, and after a tropical system counties will hold coordination conference calls with the emergency coordination officers (ECOs) of relevant agencies (e.g. law enforcement, utilities, health care) and other partners to discuss incident plans and operational status. States will also hold similar calls with their counties. Caution: information obtained during these calls may be preliminary; and may need to be independently confirmed before public dissemination. Personal communication – WFOs should have an identified county liaison(s), and all county contact numbers identified before an incident. The primary contact will most likely be the county incident commander, or Plans Chief (ESF5 is planning). Remember: a disaster is no time to be making introductions!
32. Precautionary/Preparedness ExamplePre Evacuation Head Up! Kicking out visitors MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS PLAN TO BEGIN ISSUING PROTECTIVE ACTIONS THIS MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY TO INCLUDE A MANDATORY VISITOR EVACUATION FOR ALL THE KEYS...BEGINNING AT 800 AM THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE MANDATED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER. AT THIS TIME…MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE NOT LIKELY TO ORDER A GENERAL RESIDENT EVACUATION. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLANS TO CONTINUE OPERATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES...SUCH AS RECREATIONAL VEHICLES AND TRUCKS...SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FLORIDA KEYS PRIOR TO MIDDAY MONDAY. THE KEY WEST EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER RUMOR CONTROL HOTLINE IS OPERATIONAL AT 305-809-1108. THE CITY OF KEY WEST HAS CLOSED THE OLD TOWN GARAGE PARK AND RIDE TO THE PUBLIC IN PREPARATION FOR TROPICAL STORM FAY. Note: No Personal Preparedness info. Transportation Information
33. Precautionary/Preparedness ExampleDuring Evacuation Headline Statement MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL VISITORS...RECREATIONAL VEHICLES...TRAVEL AND BOAT TRAILERS. VISITORS SHOULD LEAVE THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND OFFICIALS SUGGEST RELOCATING TO HOTELS ON THE MAINLAND WELL AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS. TOLL COLLECTION HAS BEEN SUSPENDED AT THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE. VISITORS NEEDING TO FIND INFORMATION ON AVAILABLE HOTELS IN FLORIDA MAY CALL THE VISIT FLORIDA VISITOR ASSISTANCE HOT LINE AT 1-800-287-8598. CURRENTLY...SPECIAL NEEDS RESIDENTS...TRAILER PARK RESIDENTS...AND MARINE LIVE ABOARD RESIDENTS ARE ORDERED TO EVACUATE BEGINNING AT 700 AM SUNDAY MORNING . GENERAL MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS FOR FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS ARE PLANNED TO BEGIN SUNDAY . MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE PLANNING TO MAKE DECISIONS REGARDING THE EVACUATION PLANS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWING THE 5 AM ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ALL KEYS RESIDENTS SHOULD FINISH HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TONIGHT WITH THE INTENT OF DEPARTING SUNDAY AT THE PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED TIMES. ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CHECK LOCAL MEDIA...THE MONROE COUNTY WEBSITE...OR CHANNEL 76 BEFORE LEAVING. THE EVACUATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY...BEFORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. THE OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...JUST OFF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AT U.S. ROUTE 41...TAMIAMI TRAIL...WILL BE OPENING AT 800 AM SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ALLOW PETS. ADDITIONAL SHELTERS ON THE MAINLAND WILL BE ANNOUNCED AS SOON AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. THE CITY OF KEY WEST WILL OPERATE AN EVACUATION SHUTTLE STARTING AT 800 AM SUNDAY MORNING...FOR RESIDENTS WHO LACK THEIR OWN MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION. CALL 293-6426 FOR PICK-UP LOCATIONS AND ADDITIONAL DETAILS. DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK...ALONG WITH ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALL COUNTY...STATE AND FEDERAL OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY. THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR ALL COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS AND GENERAL AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. More Specifics Personal Action Closures
34. Precautionary/Preparedness ExamplePost Storm Headline RESIDENTS WHO EVACUATED SHOULD BE ABLE TO RETURN STARTING TODAY AT NOON...ONCE OFFICIALS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IS CLEAR OF DEBRIS. VISITORS WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN TO THE KEYS STARTING ON THURSDAY. THE FOLLOWING STREETS IN KEY WEST SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CLOSED TO TRAFFIC THIS MORNING...SOUTH ROOSEVELT...ATLANTIC BOULEVARD AND THE SOUTHERN ENDS OF DUVAL...SIMONTON AND WHITEHEAD STREETS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED NOT TO DRIVE ON ANY STREET WHERE THERE IS STANDING WATER. ALL HOSPITALS ARE FULLY OPERATIONAL. ALL MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS AND COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TODAY...BUT ARE PLANNING TO REOPEN ON THURSDAY. MOST STATE AND FEDERAL OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. ASSUMING NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE AND GENERAL AVIATION SERVICE SHOULD RESUME THIS AFTERNOON. Info For Return
35. Meteorology Sections …Wind… …Inland Flooding… …Storm Surge and Tide… …Tornadoes… …(Non – Specific header)… …Probability Hurricane/Tropical Storm Conditions…
36. Meteorological Information Sections (Winds-Tornadoes-Inland Flooding-etc) Emphasize impacts – not meteorological conditions. Summarize – avoid specifics unless operationally significant (threshold value) – e.g. wind speeds Precede forecast with uncertainty when necessary. Don’t use explicit statements of uncertainty. Don’t use explicit or implicit statements of uncertainty about the forecast track or intensity - that is the purview of the NHC. Follow guidance from NHC concerning storm surge. From directive section 7.1.3.4 “must agree with tropical cyclone center forecasts as included in the advisories” If noguidance then use meows for area - but couch with uncertainty!
37. Meteorological Information Sections WINDS Avoid use or overuse of deterministic forecast ranges for winds (e.g. winds 96-110 mph). Use more descriptive terms when possible with winds. Such as “tropical storm force winds”, “Category two hurricane force winds”. Use general terms when describing onset of winds. Do not use tables! (you will most likely be wrong) - plus tables can be acquired via Hurrevac
38. Wind Example From Hurricane Wilma… …Winds… WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. Impact Statements Timing of event Non-specific Threshold value
39. Meteorological Information Sections Storm surge and storm tide Follow NHC guidance when available… - including SLOSH real time runs. Give range of values… Give timing of event… Localize as necessary (river mouths, inlets, bays)… Be very careful with analogs!!! - Unless you are very certain, do not use analogs.
40. Storm Surge/Storm Tide Example IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS AND MAGNITUDES OF SPECIFIC STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE IKE. THESE WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE PRECISE STRUCTURE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT EMERGES FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES CALL FOR STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TO OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MORE LIKELY IN THE LOWER KEYS. THE STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR PRIMARILY FROM THE ATLANTIC SIDE. UNCERTAINTY FORECAST TIMING LOCALIZATION
41. Meteorological Information Sections Tornadoes Describe general risk for area (slight, moderate, significant). Include timing and duration of threat (when threat begins through approximately when threat should decrease). Include SPC watches. Add any local impact information.
42. Tornadoes Example THE FLORIDA KEYS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITHIN SPIRAL RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY NOW THROUGH LATE MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE KEYS THROUGH 1100 AM. TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH SPIRAL BANDS FORM AND MOVE VERY RAPIDLY...AND CAN CROSS KEYS ISLAND LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.
43. Meteorological Information Sections Inland Flooding Describe Impacts – what is going to be inundated. Use QPF and RFC guidance, antecedent conditions, etc - to gauge inundation. If specific river gauge values are included, also include impacts (what will be inundated with river at this flood level)…
44. Meteorological Information Sections Marine Scare them out of the water early with suite of products (CWF, MWS). Include timing of threshold level winds (such as SCA) in general terms. Use strong language with approach of storm – such as “Small Craft Should Remain in Port”. Mention local impacts when necessary – such as “high winds and rising waters will produce dangerous conditions in marinas throughout the area”
45. Meteorological Information Sections Non-Specific Specific to your area… Can not be adequately addressed with other sections… Examples… Rainfall Impacts (for coastal areas – include rainfall amounts)…
46. And Finally… The Formatter will not do all your work… You WILL have to post edit formatter output… Root out redundancy – keep product as short as possible… It is up to you to define your message… Tell people what they need to know (narrative)!