Climate Change – The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead The Great Hospital, Norwich 9th February 2006 Keith Tovey Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery CRed • Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv • Energy Science Director: Low Carbon InnovationCentre • School of Environmental Sciences, UEA
Change in precipitation 1961-2001 Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Total summer precipitation Total winter precipitation
2003 1979 Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 • Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region • Nasa satellite imagery • 20% reduction in 24 years
Difficult Choices Ahead 2003 2004 2005 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct CRed
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol?
Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. • Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS • for around 70% of our heating and electricity • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
Government Response • Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050 • Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s • (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) “There will be much more localgeneration, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generatedwaste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’ - Energy White Paper: February 2003
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million in he Norfolk "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
Raising Awareness • Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO2 a year. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year • ~ 1000 balloons each year. • Standby on electrical appliances • 80+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons. • A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. • Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles
Involve the local Community • Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. • On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity
Electricity Statistics: • Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year. • Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh • North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh • Kings Lynn and West Norfolk 5908 kWh • Great Yarmouth 5144 kWh • A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands supplies ~ 66% of domestic needs for Norwich (or 22% of total demand) • Would save ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each year. • The alternative: • Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car again • Or300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.
Hard Choices • What can we as individuals do? • What can you do collectively as a Church? • Visit the CRed WEB Site • Sign a pledge to • combat global warming • help secure a sustainable environment for our children • help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming • help secure energy supplies for the future • saving energy • Adopting technical solutions • Promoting Awareness • Promoting appropriate renewable energy www.cred-uk.org
Conclusions • Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades • Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. • Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy • It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. • Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. • Otherwise Nuclear??? • Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.
WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at: www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm Conclusions • Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher