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Is Tanker Demand Growing Fast Enough? Insights from the 2nd Annual Marine Money Forum

This report analyzes the current trends in the tanker market revealed during the 2nd Annual Marine Money London Ship Finance Forum. Key highlights include forecasts of global oil demand at 1.4 million b/d and 2.7 million b/d, tanker spot earnings for various vessel types, and an overview of crude and product tonnage supply. The analysis covers phases of market support and oversupply, alongside oil import forecasts and projections for fleet growth, underscoring key challenges and opportunities in the shipping and oil sectors for 2011 and beyond.

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Is Tanker Demand Growing Fast Enough? Insights from the 2nd Annual Marine Money Forum

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  1. Jan 20, 2011 Is Tanker Demand Growing Fast Enough? 2nd Annual Marine Money London Ship Finance Forum Henry Curra, ACM Shipping

  2. Crude / DPP tanker spot earnings ($/day) VLCC Aframax 5 Yr Average 2010 2011 2009 Panamax Suezmax

  3. CPP tanker spot earnings ($/day) MR East CPP LR2 5 Yr Average 2011 2009 2010 MR West CPP LR1

  4. Newbuilding prices & freight earnings

  5. Current global oil demand forecast 1.4m b/d 2.7m b/d

  6. Floating Storage – Million barrels

  7. Crude tonnage supply PHASE 3: RETURN TO NORMALITY PHASE 2: AGGRAVATED OVERSUPPLY PHASE 1: MARKET SUPPORT

  8. Product tonnage supply

  9. Oil in storage Million barrels

  10. Crude tanker supply Vs. tonne-mile demand *Top 6 Tonne-mile demand

  11. Earnings Vs. tonnage oversupply

  12. Crude tanker supply Vs. tonne-mile demand all NB’s deliver as per today’s delivery schedule 25% of 2011 and 10% of 2012 don’t deliver in those years Tonne-mile demand

  13. Non-OPEC oil production

  14. Non-OPEC oil supply outlook

  15. Oil import forecast for 2011 oil supply Annual change oil demand ‘apparent’ oil import demand

  16. Oil import forecast for 2011 oil supply Annual change ‘apparent’ oil import demand oil demand

  17. Oil import forecast for 2011 oil demand ‘apparent’ oil import demand oil supply Annual change

  18. OPEC oil supply Spare production capacity +6.0m b/d +3.4m b/d

  19. Current global oil demand forecast

  20. Monthly crude oil imports

  21. Monthly crude oil imports

  22. Monthly crude oil imports

  23. Monthly crude oil imports

  24. Monthly crude oil imports

  25. Crude tanker supply Vs. tonne-mile demand all NB’s deliver as per today’s delivery schedule 25% of 2011 and 10% of 2012 don’t deliver in those years X Tonne-mile demand

  26. Fleet growth outlook assumptions

  27. Fleet growth outlook assumptions

  28. Fleet growth outlook assumptions 23% Projected at start of year 16% 32% 25% 10%

  29. Tanker fleet growth Forecast

  30. ACM Research & Consulting ACM Shipping Limited Kinnaird House, 1 Pall Mall, London SW1Y 5AU Email: research@acmshipping.co.uk Head of Research: Henry Curra hcurra@acmshipping.co.uk Tel: +44(0)207 484 6369

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