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The Evolving Threat

UNCLASSIFIED. The Evolving Threat. Presented to: AFCEA Signal Conference COL Candice E. Frost HQDA, G-2 12 March 2019. OVERALL CLASSIFICATION: UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO. One Vision, One Vector, One Voice. UNCLASSIFIED. UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO. Threat Environment Over Time. Pacing Threat.

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The Evolving Threat

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  1. UNCLASSIFIED The Evolving Threat Presented to: AFCEA Signal Conference COL Candice E. Frost HQDA, G-2 12 March 2019 OVERALL CLASSIFICATION: UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO One Vision, One Vector, One Voice UNCLASSIFIED

  2. UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO Threat Environment Over Time Pacing Threat Threat Environment Over Time • Aggrieved, Motivated; Seeks Return to Global Player Status • Endemic/Systemic Issues Impede Global Aspirations Russia Inflection Point Proximate Threat / Pacing Threat Near Term Risk • Regional Hegemon, Global Aspirations • A2AD in the SCS and Beyond • China Future Uncertain Past 2030 Near Term Risk Capability & Capacity • Regional Hegemon Aspirant • Possible Nuclear Aspirant Iran • KJU Rational, Diligently Pursuing of Desired Ends • Military Goals Incompatible with Peace, Stability North Korea • “Caliphate” Degraded, Movement Remains • Globally Metastasizing Threat The Long War Violent Extremist Orgs 3 2030 2035 2040 2045 2015 2020 2025 Time 2 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO June 18, 2017

  3. UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO Military Innovation Hyper Sonics Anti Satellite Weapons Cyber Warfare Starry Sky-2 The effective employment and deliberate application of technologies to enhance warfighting capabilities… PLA Unit 61398 PL-19 Nudol Nano Swarms Chinese Navy railgun Uran-9 Electromagnetic Rail Guns Autonomous Weapons Systems GhostDrone 2.0 3 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

  4. UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO EMS Threat Actors Russia China • Very Modernized Force • Fully-integrated EW into All Operations • Robust organizations • Robust, Layered Capability • Integrated Down to Tactical Level • Modernizing • Support Operations in Georgia, Ukraine & Syria • Integrated EW into Exercises at All Echelons Top EW Trends * Technologies Continue to Increase EW Sophistication and Capability * Advances in Electronics & Signal Processing Reduce Difficulty and Timeline for Adversaries to Produce Capable EW Systems North Korea Iran • Theater-focused • Defense of Homeland/Protect Regime • Limited Access to Outside Resources • Regionally-focused • Highly-capable • Support Defense of Homeland Non-State Actors • Use of Commercially-available Resources (GPS Jamming) • No Defined Organizational Structure Established to Meet Current Operational Needs. Near Peer Adversaries Can Contest the U.S. Army's Use of the Electromagnetic Spectrum and Use it to Cue Kinetic Weapons… 4 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

  5. UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO Evolving Cyber Threat Actors Russia China • Most Active • Most Sophisticated/Covert • Large Cyber Crime Nexus Intellectual Property Theft Over 30 Government-Sponsored Organizations ~90% of Commercially-reported Activity DDoS Estonia (2007), Georgia (2008) Energy Sector Ukraine (2015) Weapon Systems - R&D Gov & Mil Networks Top Threat Vectors North Korea Iran * Socially-engineered Email * Public-facing Websites • Active Propaganda and Offensive Capabilities Energy Sector • Rapid Development Intellectual Property Banks & Finance Major Compromise Navy Marine Corps Intranet DDoS U.S. Financial Institutions Hacktivists Cyber Crime DDoS ROK Media Outlets ROK Banks (plus destructive malware) • Website Defacements • Counter-narrative • DDoS Attacks • Identify Theft • Financial Motivation Cyber Threats Will Continue to Challenge the U.S. Army’s Use of Networks Now and Into the Foreseeable Future… 5 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

  6. UNCLASSIFIED Concluding Remarks OVERALL CLASSIFICATION: UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO One Vision, One Vector, One Voice UNCLASSIFIED

  7. UNCLASSIFIED Back-Up Slides OVERALL CLASSIFICATION: UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO One Vision, One Vector, One Voice UNCLASSIFIED

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