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Toronto Divided?

Toronto Divided?. Polarizing Trends that Could Split the City Apart 1970 to 2005 J. David Hulchanski with Larry Bourne, Richard Maaranen, Robert Murdie, Alan Walks Cities Centre, University of Toronto & Neighbourhood Change Community University Research Alliance, St. Christopher House

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Toronto Divided?

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  1. Toronto Divided? Polarizing Trends that Could Split the City Apart 1970 to 2005 J. David Hulchanski with Larry Bourne, Richard Maaranen, Robert Murdie, Alan Walks Cities Centre, University of Toronto & Neighbourhood Change Community University Research Alliance, St. Christopher House Toronto District School Board, ICAC January 2010

  2. Toronto: Justice Denied? Mark Kingwell: A just city ... “Though a city in pursuit of glory may neglect justice, the opposite does not hold: a truly just city is always a glorious one, because it allows greatness even as it looks to the conditions of strangeness posed by the other.”

  3. Toronto: Justice Denied? Mark Kingwell: A just city ... “does not oppose development, including grandiose development, ... but it does demand, over and over, that all development be, at some level, in the service of every one.” – Mark Kingwell, “Toronto: Justice Denied,” The Walrus Magazine, May 2009

  4. A Divided City “The plain truth is that our inner city is now a virtual ghetto dominated by a single ethnic group - one that is increasingly cut off and isolated from the rainbow-hued paradise we all hoped to build in the new century.” 4

  5. 5

  6. 6

  7. Poverty: High & low concentrations 7

  8. The “Three Cities” in Toronto8

  9. Three City Destroying Trends 9

  10. The “Growing Gap” from 30% to 250% Income Inequality 10

  11. 25 years: 128 neighbourhoods, 25% of the City, PERSISTENT INCOME DECREASE relative to the average 25-year Income Inequality Trend 11

  12. www.gtuo.ca Gentrification: one form of neighbourhood change – SES of residents 12

  13. Middle Income  (+/- 20% of avg.) from 66% of city to 29% in 2005 1990s Income Polarization: the decline of the middle income group 13

  14. 1970 to 2005 decline City = -37%905 = -25% Decline in # of MIDDLE INCOME neighbourhoods in the City & “905” City “905” 14

  15. City #3 Income Distribution Change, 1970 to 2005 City #3 15

  16. Cities 1,2,3 Income Distribution, 1970 to 2005 City #1 City #3 City #2 16

  17. Canada’s Urban Policy: Urban Growth Nodes Diversity: but only in some parts of the country 17

  18. Toronto’s SegregatedEthno-Cultural Population, 2006 18

  19. Recent Immigrants, 1971 & 2006 19

  20. City #3 Black Population, 2006 Segregation? Black population – Neighbourhood concentrations 20

  21. RECENT IMMIGRANTS • City #1 = 4% • City #2 = 8% • City #3 = 15% • City avg. = 11% Spatial SEGREGATION a 450,000 newcomers between 2001 and 2006. In which neighbourhoods do they live? a Segregation? Immigrant settlement – Recent 5 year period (2001-2006) 21

  22. What to do? Policy options? 22

  23. What can be done? Federal& Provincial Policy Action 23

  24. THE CONTEXTTOTAL Gov. Expenditure % GDP, 1970 TO 2007 France France Canada, 1992 Germany 1973 1984 UK Canada Canada United States 24

  25. THE CONTEXT Fed. program expenditures, 1961 TO 2008 1993 Transfers to persons Transfers to Persons x x x x Transfers to other levels of government Canadian Government Transfers, % of GDP Canada has returned to early 1970 levels 25

  26. PolicyOptionsfor the Divided City • INCOME STRATEGY • HOUSING STRATEGY • LABOUR MARKET STRATEGY ____________________________________________________ • Inclusionary Zoning • Rental Housing Rehabilitation • Eliminate vacancy decontrol • Maintain existing rental buildings with 6 or fewer units • “Tower Renewal” initiative 26

  27. PolicyOptions continued • Second suite incentive program • Encourage rooming houses, SROs, supportive housing • Reduce parking requirements & related reg. reforms • Prov. share of land transfer tax to municipalities • Energy program for low-income households • Support small independent neighbourhood businesses • Active social / community development planning • __________________________________ • __________________________________ 27

  28. Mayor’s Tower Renewal Transit City 28

  29. “There is ... no justification for the level or condition of poverty that coexists with this wealth.” • “Poverty does not directly cause violence ... • If not ameliorated it can nonetheless play a central role in generating • alienation, • a lack of hope or opportunity, • low self-esteem, • a sense of having no future and • other immediate risk factors” The level of poverty The concentration of poverty The circumstances of poverty 29

  30. “no one should be seriously disadvantaged by where they live” Policy Options 30

  31. Priorities Transit City 31

  32. For further information www.gtuo.ca www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca

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