Achieving a Sustainable and Low Carbon Transport System in Southeast Asia

1. Achieving a Sustainable and Low Carbon Transport System in Southeast Asia Sophie Punte Bert Fabian, Sudhir Gota, Alvin Mejia CAI-Asia Center International Meeting in Brussels for the Study of Transport Systems in a Low Carbon Society Brussels 23 June 2010

2. About the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities The Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities promotes better air quality and livable cities by translating knowledge to policies and actions that reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in transport, energy and other sectors CAI-Asiabegan in 2001 as a multi-stakeholder initiative by ADB, World Bank and USAID Since 2007, CAI-Asia is a UN Type-II Partnership with over 170 organizational members, 8 Country Networks, and the CAI-Asia Center as its secretariat (a non-profit organization)

3. Outline • Key results of Study of Transport Systems in a Low Carbon Society – Southeast Asia • Funded by ITPS & Nippon Foundation • Achieving sustainable and low carbon transport systems

4. 6 Southeast Asian Countries Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 4

5. 6 Southeast Asian Countries CO2 emissions 1. Baseline forecasting 3. Backcasting 2. Visioning Target 0 – 50% of 2000 emissions Low Carbon Transport 2050 2000 5

6. Methodology 6

7. Trip Mode Share in Cities in 6 Southeast Asian Countries in 2005 2W = Motorized 2-wheeler 3W = Motorized 3-wheeler PC = Personal cars LCV = Light commercial vehicles HCV = Heavy commercial vehicles

8. Transport CO2 emissions in 6 ASEAN countries in 2005 2W = Motorized 2-wheeler 3W = Motorized 3-wheeler PC = Personal cars LCV = Light commercial vehicles HCV = Heavy commercial vehicles Source: 2009. CAI-Asia

9. Vehicle Growth in Southeast Asia - BAU

10. Transport CO2 Emissions Southeast Asia – BAU 10

11. Two Images of the Future Demand Management Development • Dense cities • Vehicle travel less high • High vehicle occupancy • Priority on public transport and NMT • Focus on improving traffic management • 50% freight to rail, improved logistics Technology Driven Development • Less dense cities & satellite cities • Vehicle travel high increase • Low vehicle occupancy • Priority on private vehicles and higher fuel prices • Focus on technology advancement • >50% freight to rail, improved logistics Both images: current trends continue for GDP, population and vehicle growth

12. AVOID

13. SHIFT

14. IMPROVE

15. Individual Impacts of Policies – Demand Management Development I A A I I I S I S

16. Individual Impacts of Policies – Technology Driven Development A S I I I A I I S

17. Aggregate Impacts of Policies – Demand Management Development

18. Aggregate Impact of Policies – Technology Driven Development

19. Considerations for Policies Introduction 19 • Image 1 - Demand Management Development: • Urban development to facilitate avoid/shift policies • Willingness to make private vehicle use expensive critical for success • Image 2 - Technology Driven Development: • Traffic congestion more serious • Technology availability and affordability critical for success • Factors influencing both • Timing, assumed effect, interactions between policies • Co-benefits and political factors have large influence on policy selection • Integration with other policies: city plans and policies for air quality, climate change and energy management

20. Barriers to sustainable transport • Absence of a city development strategy • Unsustainable transport policies driven by meeting demand by creating additional infrastructures • Ineffective transport planning by the experts, thus disenfranchising users, residents and other stakeholders • Little implementation due to a disconnect between plans and available budgets • Little data about the success or failure of implementation in achieving policy goals • Governance problems where politics won over technocratic advice. Source: ADB, 2009. Changing Course - a New Paradigm for Sustainable Urban Transport

21. Paradigm shift: Framework for achieving sustainable transport in Asian cities Framework provides guidance in translating thinking on sustainable urban transport into practical implementation in Asian cities Source: CAI-Asia Center, 2009. Achieving Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asian Cities – Discussion paper (draft) Funded by ADB/Sida under the Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asia(SUMA) program

22. Implementing the framework: what is needed • What cities need: process facilitation, technical advice, and financial support such as development loans • An integrated effort at the national and regional level to make the shift to sustainable transport in Asia • Decision-makers: ASEAN, Government agencies and policy makers • Practitioners: NGOs, academic and research institutions, consultancies • Financial institutions, donors, development agencies • Private sector: developers, construction firms, suppliers, fuel/oil companies, automotive manufacturers • Create city networks to enable replication and scale out in other cities – CIVITAS model

23. CAI-Asia Center www.cleanairinitiative.org Sophie Punte, Executive Director Sophie.punte@cai-asia.org Bert Fabian, Transport Program Manager Bert.fabian@cai-asia.org Sudhir Gota, Transport Specialist Sudhir.gota@cai-asia.org Alvin Mejia, Transport Specialist Alvin.mejia@cai-asia.org Unit 3510, 35th floor Robinsons-Equitable Tower ADB Avenue, Pasig City Metro Manila 1605 Philippines