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Freight modelling and policy analysis in Sweden

Freight modelling and policy analysis in Sweden. Inge Vierth, CTS/VTI, CTS Seminar Freight Models 1 March 2011. 1 March 2011, 1. Since 1980ies: Development and application of national freight model ”STAN”. implemented in STAN-software

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Freight modelling and policy analysis in Sweden

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  1. Freight modelling and policy analysis in Sweden Inge Vierth, CTS/VTI, CTS Seminar Freight Models 1 March 2011 1 March 2011, 1

  2. Since 1980ies: Development and application of national freight model ”STAN” • implemented in STAN-software • assignment procedure for modelling modal-split and route choice for road, rail and sea • minimisation of total generalised transport costs • assignment of tonnes • several different moduls to describe demand (OD)

  3. Application of STAN-model in policy analys (2000-2008)

  4. Drawbacks of STAN-model • insufficient precision of link- and node flows for infrastructure planning • insufficient precision of link- and node flows for differentiated pricing • only effects on mode and route choice • no modelling of firms’ logistic decisions

  5. Since 2000: development of new model ”Samgods” withhelpof national and international expertise • 2001: 4 idea studies • 2002: 3 pre-studies (logistics, demand, regional/local transports) in parallell: collectionof new typeof data • National CommodityFlow Survey (CFS) based on US CFS • Swedish senders/receivers answer (CFS 2001, 2004/5, 2009)

  6. Structure of Samgods model: ADA

  7. 2004: Purchaseoflogisticsmodel and basematrices (1) Co-ordination of the modeldevelopmentwithNorway Logisticsmodel: • minimisationoflogisticcosts (deterministicmodel) • dissaggregation to firms (3 sizeclasses) • choice ofshipmentsize (optimisedeconomic order quantity) • Choice ofloadunit (container/non container) • choice between 86 pre-defined transport chains • consolidation (withincommoditygroups) • modellingofemptyvehicles • assignmentofvehicles at OD-level • future plan: stochasticmodel

  8. 2004: Purchase of logistics model and base matrices (2) • Basematrices • useof CFS as main data source in constructionofbasematrices • Future plan: economicmodel to forecastfuturedemand • User interface (CUBE) • Model for regional and localflows (future plan)

  9. Level of detail has increased STAN Samgods Numberoflinks: 17 200 73 500 thereof road in Sweden: 5 300 62 200 Numberofnodes: 4 500 24 800 Numberofvehicles 15 34 Numberofcommodities: 12 35

  10. 2008/9: Development, tests and useofSamgodsmodel • delivery of logistics model and base matrices (2008) • OK results for modal split • no calibration yet • tests • tools to analyse output • use in study of effects of IMO:s more stringent emission requirements on maritime fuel (2009)

  11. 2011: Development, tests and use of Samgods model • ”Co-modalityproject” (on behalfofseveralagencies) • socio-economicimpactsoflonger/heavier trucks and or trains • in Sweden • in corridorSweden – Germany - Netherlands • Transport Administration:sstudy on railuser charges ?

  12. CTS/VTI – development, test, use of Samgods model • RAILTRAM –Improving Rail Freight Transport Modelling (2009-2011) (Troche, G., I. Vierth, N. Lord, paper WCTR 2010) • Spatial, Temporal and Size Distribution of Freight Time Deviations (2011) (Krüger, N., I Vierth VTI, F Fakhraeiroudsari, H Koutsopoulos, KTH) • Montecarlo-simulations based on results in ”Spatial, Temporal and Size Distribution of Freight Time Deviations” (planned)

  13. Reflections about the Samgods model • advanced model • includes relevant logistic decicions at firm level • gives OK results at aggregated level • gives detailed results at disaggregated level • difficult to validate (new data/data collection methods needed) • limited use in policy analysis so far

  14. Possible strategies • ”trial and error” use • validation/calibration • simplification • CTS-trajectory Applied planning Research

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