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Freight modelling and policy analysis in Denmark

Freight modelling and policy analysis in Denmark. Christian Overgård Hansen. Contents. History of Danish freight modelling GORM New Danish National Freight Model Status and timetable. History of Danish freight modelling. GORM Coverage area and zoning. Cover freight flows:

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Freight modelling and policy analysis in Denmark

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  1. Freight modelling and policy analysis in Denmark Christian Overgård Hansen

  2. Contents • History of Danish freight modelling • GORM • New Danish National Freight Model • Status and timetable

  3. History of Danish freight modelling

  4. GORMCoverage area and zoning Cover freight flows: • Internal within Denmark and Skane • Between Denmark/Skane and rest of Scandinavia • Between Scandinavia and the European Continent 811 zones within Europe 21 port zones to rest of World

  5. GORMModel structure

  6. GORMBase year matrices, data sources • Trade data • EUROSTAT • National trade statistics (DS, SCB, SSB) • Swedish Commodity Flow Survey (2001) • Data from existing models: • Base matrices from SENEX (year 2000) • Base matrices from LDK (year 1999) • Base matrices dorm SAMGODS (year 2001) • OTM and SAMPERS • Zonal systems • Data on population and workplaces

  7. GORMCombination of road networks

  8. GORMTransport modes 1. Truck (uni-modal) 2. Combined truck and rail transport 3. Combined truck and sea transport 4. Bulk rail transport 5. Bulk sea transport

  9. GORMScreen lines with crossings

  10. GORMModel for choice of mode and crossing • Nested logit model • Lower level: Crossing • Upper level: Mode • Calibrated to 2003 base year matrices

  11. GORM experiences Applications of GORM: • Test and validation cases • IBU project • …. Future directions for National Freight Model: • Need for more and new data • Developments of trade (and logistics models) required • Nested logit model structure complicates introduction of new links

  12. New Danish National Freight ModelObjectives - coverage The freight model must include all types of goods flows related to Denmark, i.e. National flows within Denmark International flows to and from Denmark International flows transit through Denmark Goods flows outside Denmark which potentially may be moved to a new fixed link across Fehmarn Belt

  13. New Danish National Freight ModelObjectives - applications The model must provide plausible answers to a wide range of transport policies, infrastructure investments and economy developments, e.g. it must be able to evaluate impacts from: Different changes to economy in Denmark and rest of the World Fixed link across Fehmarn Belt Developments of road, port and railway infrastructure Development of new distribution centres (DC) New or improved ferry, container, and Ro-Ro routes Changes to transport and inventory costs Introduction of giga-liners Road user charges (e.g. MAUT)

  14. New Danish National Freight ModelZonal system - Danmark 176 zones in Denmark (L1-niveau) Sub-divisions of municipalities

  15. New Danish National Freight ModelZonal system – outside Denmark 120 zones in Europe Few zones in rest of World

  16. New Danish National Freight ModelModified NST2007

  17. New Danish National Freight ModelData collections Road side surveys at about 50 industrial and city areas About 30 interviews with firms involved in freight transport GPS-data (TetraPlan, Road Directorate and fleet data from logistic firms) Incept survey across the Fehmarn Belt screen line from the green border to Ystad – Swinoujscie (Frøslev, 8 ports north og 6 ports south of line) About 350 SP-interviews among companies in Denmark, Sweden and Germany with international transports

  18. New Danish National Freight ModelUse of data

  19. New Danish National Freight ModelTrade model Purpose: Estimate future trade flows by commodity group Model: Double constrained gravity model: International trade covering the World National trade Conversion to tonnes Status Method under development

  20. New Danish National Freight ModelLogistics model (ADA) Shipment Choice of shipment size and frequency. Loading unit Choice of loading unit e.g. container. Trans-shipment Use of distribution centres, terminal and port for consolidation and distribution of shipments. The location of trans-shipment point are given by the user, the model determines their use. Mode Choice of mode used for each leg of the transport chain. Crossing Choice of crossing in the Fehmarn Belt corridor.

  21. New Danish National Freight ModelAssignment of uni-modal legs

  22. New Danish National Freight ModelTimetable

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