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Exploring Future Work on Northwest Flow Snowfall in the Southern Appalachians

This document outlines potential future research directions concerning Northwest Flow Snowfall (NWFS) events in the Southern Appalachians. It aims to define sub-categories of NWFS, explore the concept of "hybrids," and identify differences between these sub-categories based on various meteorological parameters. It advocates for the creation of a comprehensive database, detailed modeling of NWFS events, and an emphasis on mesoscale performance. Future work should consider trajectory analysis, snow-liquid ratios, and modeling enhancements to improve forecasting efforts.

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Exploring Future Work on Northwest Flow Snowfall in the Southern Appalachians

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  1. Potential future work on NWFS in Southern Appalachians • Clearly define sub-categories • We talk about “hybrids”, but what is a hybrid? • Start with GSP sub-categories:- “Post-frontal”- “Comma-head” or “Wrap-around”- “Cut-off low”- How about “Clipper”? • Many events probably evolve from hybrid to a more “pure” NW flow upslope. Do we need to separate an event when it becomes “pure” (and how easy would that be, what fcst utility would it serve)?

  2. Potential future work on NWFS in Southern Appalachians • Identify specific differences between sub-categories, beyond synoptic patterns and evolutions- trajectories- snow-liquid ratios- temp/moisture profiles- other? (microphysics) • Composites for each category of synoptic maps (which maps/fields?)

  3. Potential future work on NWFS in Southern Appalachians • Model performance- separate by category?- focus on WRF flavors and mesoscale aspects (taking advantage of RENCI and gridded verification tools)?- consider NCEP models and longer fcst ranges (beyond 24 hrs), utilize BOIVerify (for QPF anyway)?

  4. Potential future work on NWFS in Southern Appalachians • Create database of events, by sub-category • What to include?- regional snowfall maps (Greg Dobson help)- various analysis maps (what fields, how much of the evolution?)- mesoscale maps- soundings- satellite/radar • Can get carried away, need to pick most important things • Do we keep adding each year, or focus on what we have already plus maybe next two years of field program?

  5. Potential future work on NWFS in Southern Appalachians • Other ideas? • Leverage HMT-SE (additional data collection, modeling) -GL • More careful trajectory analysis –GL • Sensitivity of upstream stability/snow cover –GL

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