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Potential future work on NWFS in S outhern Appalachians

Potential future work on NWFS in S outhern Appalachians. Clearly define sub-categories We talk about “hybrids”, but what is a hybrid? Start with GSP sub-categories: - “Post-frontal” - “Comma-head” or “Wrap-around” - “Cut-off low” - How about “Clipper”?

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Potential future work on NWFS in S outhern Appalachians

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  1. Potential future work on NWFS in Southern Appalachians • Clearly define sub-categories • We talk about “hybrids”, but what is a hybrid? • Start with GSP sub-categories:- “Post-frontal”- “Comma-head” or “Wrap-around”- “Cut-off low”- How about “Clipper”? • Many events probably evolve from hybrid to a more “pure” NW flow upslope. Do we need to separate an event when it becomes “pure” (and how easy would that be, what fcst utility would it serve)?

  2. Potential future work on NWFS in Southern Appalachians • Identify specific differences between sub-categories, beyond synoptic patterns and evolutions- trajectories- snow-liquid ratios- temp/moisture profiles- other? (microphysics) • Composites for each category of synoptic maps (which maps/fields?)

  3. Potential future work on NWFS in Southern Appalachians • Model performance- separate by category?- focus on WRF flavors and mesoscale aspects (taking advantage of RENCI and gridded verification tools)?- consider NCEP models and longer fcst ranges (beyond 24 hrs), utilize BOIVerify (for QPF anyway)?

  4. Potential future work on NWFS in Southern Appalachians • Create database of events, by sub-category • What to include?- regional snowfall maps (Greg Dobson help)- various analysis maps (what fields, how much of the evolution?)- mesoscale maps- soundings- satellite/radar • Can get carried away, need to pick most important things • Do we keep adding each year, or focus on what we have already plus maybe next two years of field program?

  5. Potential future work on NWFS in Southern Appalachians • Other ideas? • Leverage HMT-SE (additional data collection, modeling) -GL • More careful trajectory analysis –GL • Sensitivity of upstream stability/snow cover –GL

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