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Navigation Services GPS Alternative Strategy Project (Draft)

Navigation Services GPS Alternative Strategy Project (Draft). 22 October 2009. Purpose of Briefing . Present Information on New GPS Alternative (Backup) Strategy Project Define Issues to be Resolved (Assumptions, Rationale, and Guidelines)

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Navigation Services GPS Alternative Strategy Project (Draft)

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  1. Navigation Services GPS Alternative Strategy Project (Draft) 22 October 2009

  2. Purpose of Briefing • Present Information on New GPS Alternative (Backup) Strategy Project • Define Issues to be Resolved (Assumptions, Rationale, and Guidelines) • Present Methodology for GPS Alternative Strategy Project (Phase I – Systems Engineering) • Define Preliminary Schedule for Phase I Deliverables • All Material are Evolving and Will be Updated ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  3. Overall Goal of GPS Alternative Strategy Project • Consolidate and document all GPS Backup or Alternative Navigation Studies • Provide comprehensive traceability of all assumptions, rationale, guidelines, and requirements • Provide sufficient rationale to justify starting a potential rulemaking effort if needed • Organize project into three phases to satisfy Joint Resources Council (JRC) decisions to start acquisition or implementation • Decision Point 1 (DP1) – Service Analysis • Decision Point 2 (DP2) – Investment Analysis • Prepare all the required documents for DP1 and DP2 (AMS, SMS, NAS Enterprise Architecture, etc) ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  4. Objectives of ISI Project for Phase I (From ION GNSS 2009 Briefing) • Establish requirements for the backup service • Performance Based Navigation Requirements Document (PBN RD) • Develop MLAT/DME alternatives to meet the PBN RD • Passive MLAT/DME • Pseudolite MLAT/DME • Optimized DME (Current Plan) • Perform system architecture tradeoff studies to identify a preferred architecture • Performance • User Acceptance • Cost • Coordination with internal and external stakeholders to ensure transparency • Service Providers (Domestic and International) • Users • OEMs/Avionics Manufacturers • Follow FAA Systems Engineering Manual and IEEE System Engineering Process for the development and implementation of a system or systems starting with an Operational Concept ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  5. Preliminary Schedule for Phase I Deliverables Initial Draft Briefing Doc • Feasibility Determination R&D Plan for Phase II 2/10 5/10 • Draft PBN Requirements Document 12/09 6/10 • Analysis of Alternatives 2/10 5/10 • Passive MLAT/DME • Pseudolite MLAT/DME • Optimized DME (Current Plan) • GPS Alternative Architecture Description Document 3/10 6/10 • Two architectures may be recommended for Phase II • Draft AMS and SMS Documents for Decision Point 1 4/10 7/10 • Overall Project Plan (Phases I, II, III) 3/10 6/10 • Activity descriptions • Key personnel/organizations • Schedule • Deliverables for all three phases. • Project Status Report presented as a briefing Monthly • Quarterly Project Status Review Meetings Quarterly ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  6. Initial Process for GPS Alternative Strategy Planning • Review other backup or contingency planning references • Identify critical parameters for GPS Alternative Study • Develop methodology and correlate with deliverables • Identify challenges/guidelines for development of alternatives to GPS • Develop assumptions, rationale, and guidelines for GPS Alternative Strategy Study • Identify documents as potential starting points for GPS Alternative Study • Process and methodology to be as complete as possible so planning/study does not have to be repeated • Plan for evolving requirements and assumptions ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  7. Other Relevant Backup or Contingency Planning References (Non FAA) • Department of Homeland Security (Threats to Critical Infrastructure) • US Federal Emergency Management Agency • Emergency Planning, Response, and Recovery • Emergency Management Guide for Business and Industry • US Department of Energy • Comprehensive Emergency Management System • Emergency Management Guide • Guidance for Evaluation of Operational Emergency Plans • National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)-Contingency Planning Guide for Information Technology Systems • Eurocontrol Guidelines for Contingency Planning of Air Navigation Services ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  8. Typical Methodology from Backup or Contingency Planning References • Flow-Down Requirements from Government Policy • Define Failure Scenarios (Threats or Hazards) and Their Potential Risks, Probabilities, and Mitigations • Define Operational Concept During Backup Mode • Risk Evaluations of Acceptable Alternative Architectures and Mitigations • Assess Safety Aspects of Backup or Contingency Mitigations • Assess Economic (Business) Aspects of Backup or Contingency Mitigations • Assess Institutional Aspects of Backup or Contingency Mitigations • Access Implementation Aspects of Backup or Contingency Mitigations • Access Transitional Aspects of Implementing Backup or Contingency Mitigations • Integrate and Coordinate with all Stakeholders • Develop Backup or Contingency Plan ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  9. Current US Government Policy on GPS Alternative (2008 Federal Radio-navigation Plan) U.S. Space-Based Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Policy • “Secretary of Transportation (DOT) in coordination with the Secretary of Homeland Security (DHS), will develop, acquire, operate, and maintain backup position, navigation, and timing capabilities that can support critical transportation, homeland security, and other critical civil and commercial infrastructure applications within the U.S., consistent with Homeland Security Presidential Directive (HSPD-7)” • “With respect to transportation to include aviation, commercial maritime, rail, and highway, the DOT has determined that sufficient alternative navigation aids currently exist in the event of a loss of GPS-based services, and therefore, Loran currently is not needed as a back-up navigation aid for transportation safety-of-life users” • “However, many transportation safety-of-life applications depend on commercial communications system and DOT recognizes the importance of the Loran system as a backup to GPS for critical infrastructure applications requiring precise time and frequency” ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  10. Initial Assumptions by Navigation Services from ION GNSS 2009 Briefing • Backup is a Requirement for GPS Positioning • ADS-B Surveillance • GPS/WAAS/LAAS Navigation • Backup Service Not Equivalent to Primary • NPA (RNP-0.3) at busiest airports vs. LPV/ILS • Other requirements, such as integrity, similar to requirements for supplemental navigation systems • Primary and Backup Service must support PBN • Minimize Impact on ATC and Airspace Redesign • Alternatives Must Be Cost Beneficial • Minimize Impact to Users and Service Providers • Accept above as given for now – will validate later ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  11. Initial Considerations for GPS Alternative or Contingency Planning for Navigation • Part of plan for decommissioning some of the current ground based navigation aids • Potential current and future threats that require GPS alternative • Assumptions and interfaces to other CNS and ATM Contingency Policies and Planning • Operational concepts during normal GPS service and GPS outages • Degraded navigation requirements (minimum acceptable levels of services) for approaches, terminal, en route, oceanic • Acceptable and implementable by all aviation stakeholders worldwide • Technically, operationally, institutionally, and financially strong enough concept and plan to resist challenges from other nations and/or companies • Provide enough rationale/justification/reference so that study will be acceptable, credible, convincing, and does not have to be repeated • However, plan for some assumptions/guidelines to change and the evolution of requirements ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  12. Methodology for Development of GPS Outage Scenarios and Impact on Future Operational Concepts NextGen Operational Concepts, Enterprise Architecture (EA), Implementation Plan, Others FAA Flight Plan Current Navigation Requirements (GNSS SARPS) Develop Future Navigation Capabilities Potential Risks From GPS Threats/Hazards Coordinate User/ICAO Requirements Identify Degraded GPS Navigation Capabilities with and w/o Mitigations Develop Operational Shortfalls During GPS Outages Other CNS And ATM Contingency Planning - Output Results ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  13. Methodology for Development of Acceptable Degraded Requirements During GPS Outages Identify Alternative Backup Strategies Develop Assumptions, Rationale, and Guidelines For Alternatives Study Coordinate User/ICAO Requirements Degraded Surveillance Capabilities During GPS Outages Develop Acceptable Operational Concepts During GPS Outages and Their Transition Identify Issues/ Risks of Alternative Concepts (Part of Deliverable 1) Develop Degraded Navigation Requirements During GPS Outages (Deliverable 2) Other CNS And ATM Contingency Planning Coordinate User/ICAO Requirements - Output Results ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  14. Methodology for Evaluating Alternative Strategies to Mitigate GPS Outages Define and Coordinate Evaluation Criteria and Prioritization Initial Evaluation of Potential Alternatives and Transition Assess Tech Aspects Assess Ops Aspects Assess Safety Aspects Assess Economic Aspects Assess Institutional Aspects Select Best Alternative(s) to Mitigate GPS Outages (Deliverables 3 and 4) Feasibility Determination Project Plan (Deliverable 1) - Output Results ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  15. Methodology for Developing AMS Documents to Satisfy Joint Resources Council (JRC) Decision Point 1 (DP1) FAA Flight Plan NextGen Enterprise Architecture (EA) Perform Service Analysis Within Mission Analysis Define Services Schedule Services Analyze Functions Define Gaps Changes To EA Develop Plan for Concepts and Requirements Definition For AMS Investment Analysis Readiness Decision Point 2 (Deliverables 5 and 6) - Output Results ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  16. Methodology for Developing SMS Documents to Satisfy Joint Resources Council (JRC) Decision Point 1 (DP1) FAA Flight Plan NextGen Enterprise Architecture (EA) Perform Comparative Safety Operational and Performance Assessment Develop Draft OSED Identify OHA Issues Identify OPA Issues Identify ASOR Issues Identify INTEROP Issues Develop Plan for Concepts and Requirements Definition To Satisfy SMS Requirements for Decision Point 2 (Deliverables 5 and 6) OSED – Operational Services and Environment Definition OHA – Operational Hazard Assessment OPA – Operational Performance Assessment ASOR – Allocation of Safety Objectives and Requirements INTEROPS – Interoperability Requirements - Output Results ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  17. Methodology to Reduce Study Time for Phase I Assumptions, Rationale, and Guidelines for Alternative Study Development of Rationale And Justifications for Acceptable Degraded Requirements (Deliverables 2 and Parts of 1) Initial Assumptions From Navigation Services Prioritize and More Detailed Assessment of Best Alternatives (Deliverables 3 & 4) Develop Feasibility Determination Project Plan for Phase II (Complete Deliverable 1) Develop AMS and SMS Documents (Deliverable 5) Develop Project Plan For all Phases (Deliverable 6) Identify and Assess Issues with Potential Alternatives ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  18. Challenges for Development of Assumptions, Guidelines, Criteria, and Requirements (1) • Develop assumptions for each threat/hazard that result in GPS outage • Develop assumptions on probability, availability and interoperability of future independent GLONASS, Galileo, and COMPASS constellations • Develop rationale for only addressing aviation PNT users and requirements in this study • Develop assumptions and interfaces to other CNS/ATM backup or contingency plans and requirements • Define and provide rationale for acceptable reduced operational concepts during GPS outages: • Acceptable to all domestic and international aviation stakeholders • Definition of degraded levels of navigation performance and risks during GPS outages • Definition of minimum impact to user avionics and procedures required by GPS alternative solution ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  19. Challenges for Development of Assumptions, Guidelines, Criteria, and Requirements (2) • Determine impact of “Best Equipped – Best Served” policy and/or Performance Based Operations (PBO) philosophy • Define requirements for an Alternative System, for example does an alternative only has to meet the requirements for a supplemental system • Impact and influence of previous studies on GPS alternatives • Impact and influence of better “mouse traps” from other nations, and private companies such as Iridium LLC, etc • Develop criteria and weights to evaluate alternatives • Develop assumptions and scenarios for financial analysis, such as the costs to restructure VOR airways if decommissioned • Assumptions, guidelines, and requirements will be tracked and updated as needed • Need “consensus” or “near consensus” on assumptions, guidelines, criteria, and requirements from all stakeholders ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  20. Reference Documents for GPS Alternatives Project (1) • ICAO GNSS SARPS Requirements-Annex 10 (7/2006) • ICAO Global Air Navigation Plan-Third Edition (2007) • Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) Documents • Eurocontrol Guidelines for Contingency Planning of Air Navigation Services-Edition 2.1 4/2009) • IATA Plans and Requirements • RTCA Report “Recommendations Regarding the Concept of Equipage and Mandated versus Voluntary Considerations” • Volpe Threat Analysis Report and Others (such as the Vulnerability Assessment of the Transportation Infrastructure Relying on the GPS 8/2001) and RTCA DO-292/235B • GPS Risk Assessment Study, Final Report,” John Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 1/1999) • Reports and studies on scintillation and ionospheric errors on satellite navigation • GAO Report on GPS-Significant Challenges in Sustaining and Upgrading Widely Used Capabilities (4/2009) • GLONASS, Galileo, and COMPASS status and plans • Emergency Management Operations and Control System (EMOCS) for JPDO by Harris (10/2008) • Surveillance/Positioning Backup Strategy Alternative Analysis (1/2007) • Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and/or FAA/DOD/DOT GPS Interference Detection and Mitigation Systems ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  21. Reference Documents for GPS Alternatives Project (2) • Integrated CNS-Analysis of Alternatives for NGATS by Raytheon (9/2009) • FAA NextGen Concept of Operations (6/2007) • FAA Flight Plan (2009-2013) • NAS Enterprise Architecture (6/2007) • Draft Avionics Roadmap (6/2008) • NextGen Implementation Plan 2009 • 2008 National Aviation Research Plan • Robust Navigation and Positioning: An Exploration of Future Visions-MITRE Report (8/2009) • National Plan for Aeronautical Research and Development of Related Infrastructure (12/2007) • Revised Draft Navigation Evolution Roadmap (3/2008) • 2008 Federal Radio-Navigation Plan • FAA Navigation and Landing Transition Strategy (8/2002) • RTCA Task Force on GNSS Transition and Implementation Strategy (9/1992) • Roadmap for Performance-Based Navigation 2006-2015 (7/2006) • JPDO Satellite Navigation Backup Study-Final Report by ITT (9/2007) • “Transition to Satellite Technology for Navigation and Surveillance,” Airservices Australia and Australian Government • RTCA NextGen Mid-Term Implementation Task Force Report (9/2009) • Reports from the GNSS Evolutionary Architecture Study (GEAS) ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

  22. Reference Documents forGPS Alternatives Project (3) • Other ICAO Navigation SARPS Requirements (for example on DME) • Independent Assessment Team (IAT) Summary of Initial Findings on eLoran-Institute for Defense Analysis (1/2009) • Loran’s Capability to Mitigate the Impact of a GPS Outage on GPS Position, Navigation, and Time Applications (3/2004) • Other CNS/ATM backup or contingency plans and requirements • MITRE study on LNAV/VNAV and LPV height above touchdown (HAT) and DME/DME coverage for 5073 runway ends and 1534 airports • FAATC simulations of GPS Outage En Route Simulation (GOERS) – MITRE report 10/2003; and GPS Outage Terminal Simulation (GOTS) • GPS Backup for Positioning, Navigation, and Timing; AMA, August 2006 • Others to be Identified ISI Confidential and Proprietary Information

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