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Executive Board meeting 11 March 2004

Explore the growth projections and market outlook for various industries in the US, Japan, Euro Area, and Norway's trading partners. Find out the current trends in GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, unemployment, and more.

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Executive Board meeting 11 March 2004

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  1. Executive Board meeting11 March 2004

  2. GDP growth in the US, Japan, the euro area and among Norway's trading partners combined.Quarterly growth. Per cent. 2001 - 2003.Seasonally adjusted Sources: EcoWin/US Department of Commerce, ESRI (JP) EURO-OP/Eurostat and Norges Bank

  3. Regional network • Activity is rising in most industries • The market outlook is favourable for the next six months • Developments in output and demand are positive for manufacturing, construction, distributive trades and services • However, few enterprises are planning an increase in investment • Many enterprises report that they can increase production to a fairly large extent without a substantial growth in employment

  4. Assumptions for money market rate and the krone exchange rate (I-44) in Inflation Report 1/04 3-month money market rate Import-weighted exchange rate, I-441) Forward rate 4 March Forward rate 4 March 1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

  5. Projections for CPI-ATE and the output gap1).Per cent CPI-ATE Output gap 1) The output gap is a measure of the difference between actual and trend output.See box in IR 1/03 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  6. CPI-ATETotal and by supplier sector.Historical developments and projections. 12-month rise. Per cent Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  7. Import-weighted krone exchange rate1), sight deposit rate and 3-month interest rate differential against trading partners. Daily figures. 1 Jan 2002 - 9 March 2004 I-44 (left-hand scale) Sight deposit rate (right-hand scale) Interest rate differential 3-month (right-hand scale) 1)A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

  8. Indicator of external price impulses to consumer goods measured in foreign currency.Historical developments and projections. Annual figures. 95-06 Source: Norges Bank

  9. Interest rate expectations in the USActual developments and expected key rate.Daily figures 23. Oct 03 16. Dec 03 Key rate 9. March 04 Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank

  10. Annual wage growth1) and unemployment rate.Per cent. Annual figures. 1993 - 2006 Annual wage growth Unemployment rate, LFS 1) Average for all groups. Including cost of additional vacation days Sources: Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  11. Prices for air travelAdjusted for taxes. 12-month rise. Jan 01 - Jan 04 Productivity growth and real growth in value added in commercial services.2-year moving average. Annual figures. Per cent. 1972-2003 Productivity (right-hand scale) Output (left-hand scale) -8,7 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  12. Real interest rate after tax.Quarterly figures. 85 Q1 - 04 Q11) 3-month rate 5-year rate 1) The figure for 2004 Q1 is preliminary Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  13. Change in employment on previous year. Per cent.Unemployment as a percentage of the labour force.Annual figures. 1980 - 2006 LFS unemployment (left-hand scale) Numbers employed (right-hand scale) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  14. Interest rate expectations.Actual developments and expected key rate at 4 March 2004.Daily figures UK Norway Euro area US Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  15. Change in 3-month money market rates and effective exchange rates.23 October 2003 - 4 March 2004 NZD AUD GBP Exchange rate change. Per cent EUR USD CHF SEK JPY CAD NOK Interest rate change. Basis points Sources: Bank of England and Bloomberg

  16. Short-term money market rates 9 March 2004

  17. Monetary policy meeting Monetary policy meeting CPI CPI CPI CPI I-44 since November 2003 Source: Norges Bank

  18. Expected consumer price inflation in 5 years. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 02 Q2 - 04 Q1 Employer organisations Employee organisations Experts Source: TNS Gallup

  19. Expected consumer price inflation in 2 years. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 02 Q2 - 04 Q1 Employee organisations Experts Employer organisations Source: TNS Gallup

  20. Vacant office space in Oslo, Asker and Bærum.Share of total market value real estate stock.As at February. 1991-2004 House prices.Monthly figuresJan97 - Jan 04 NOK 1000 per square metre (left-hand scale) Growth on previous year, 3-month moving average (right-hand scale) Sources: NEF, EFF, finn.no and ECON Source: Eiendomsspar AS

  21. Credit from domestic sources (C2)12-month rise. Jan 1998 - Jan 2004 Credit to households Total domestic credit (C2) Credit to non-financial enterprises Source: Norges Bank

  22. CPI-ATEHistorical developments and projections1).Seasonally adjusted 3-month moving average, annualised and 12-month rise. Oct 03 - Nov 04 Historical Projections 1) The columns show 3-month moving average.The curve shows the 12-month rise Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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