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Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis PowerPoint Presentation
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Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis

Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis

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Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis

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  1. Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis Source: UN/DESA

  2. Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis Global GDP Growth (Percent, quarter over quarter, annualized) Source: IMF

  3. Global Trends: Food Crisis Source: FAO

  4. Early Warning Indicators A. Flash Quarterly GDP (Now-Casting) • The First Estimate of Overall Economic Activities • Imputation for the Last Month of the Quarter • Timeliness 10 Days After end of the Ref. Period

  5. Quarterly Flash GDP

  6. Actual vs. Flash GDP

  7. Early Warning Indicators B. Monthly Flash GDP • Calculated using Production Approach • One Month Timeliness • Utilization of Monthly Short Term Indictors such as: • Administrative Data • Price Statistics • Monthly Survey Results • Monthly Financial Statements of the Large Enterprises

  8. Early Warning Indicators B. Monthly Flash GDP • Better timeliness • Less accuracy, but acceptable • Availability of strong monthly set of information • Strengthen the Flash Quarterly GDP • Strengthen the high frequency indicators

  9. Early Warning Indicator C. Composite Leading Economic Indicators • Need for quick, broad indicator for overall economic activity for immediate future • Extracting signals and producing estimates for a better understanding of cyclical movements • This work is currently under construction • Weighting system will be derived

  10. Early Warning Indicator C. Composite Leading Economic Indicators

  11. Challenges Encountered • Rallying for resources • Timeliness, periodicity and availability of high frequency indicators – historic emphasis annual data • Composite Leading Indicator • Lack of sufficient indicators • Methodological improvements in existing data

  12. Thank you