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Chapter 17

Chapter 17. Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention. Preview. Balance sheets of central banks Intervention in the FX market and the MS How the central bank fixes the e.r. Monetary and fiscal policies under fixed e.r. Financial market crises and capital flight

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Chapter 17

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  1. Chapter 17 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention

  2. Preview • Balance sheets of central banks • Intervention in the FX market and the MS • How the central bank fixes the e.r. • Monetary and fiscal policies under fixed e.r. • Financial market crises and capital flight • Types of fixed exchange rates: reserve currency and gold standard systems • Zero interest rates, deflation and liquidity traps

  3. Exchange Rate Regimes Policies aimed at influencing exchange rates are widespread, even in countries that claim to float their currency: “managed floating” is often a more accurate description. The central bank “manages” the exchange rate from time to time by buying and selling currency and assets, especially in periods of exchange rate volatility. Other countries try to fix or “peg” their e.r. to a currency or group of currencies by intervening in the FX market. The United States (almost) floats the dollar, but most countries fix or manage exchange rates.

  4. Exchange rate regimes: In March 2001, the exchange rate regimes of 186 countries were, according to the IMF: Fixed (pegged) regimes Countries without separate currency: 39 Currency board arrangements: 8 Other fixed exchange rate arrangements: 44 ..................................................................................................... Intermediate regimes Crawling pegs: 4 Fixed exchange rate bands: 6 Crawling exchange rate bands: 5 Managed floating: 33 ..................................................................................................... Free floating: 47

  5. Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes Countries without their own currency: 39 • Countries using a currency of another country, or sharing their currency with other countries. • Include Euro Area countries (Germany, France, Italy, etc.); (could include New Jersey, New York, ...) Currency board arrangements: 8 • The domestic currency is fully backed by foreign reserves (the central bank holds no domestic assets). Can increase MS only by increasing foreign assets. • Included Argentina, now Hong Kong, Bulgaria, etc. Other fixed exchange rate arrangements: 44 • The exchange rate of the domestic currency is pegged to another currency or basket (with <1% fluctuation). • E.g., China.

  6. Intermediate Regimes Crawling pegs: 4 • The exchange rate is adjusted periodically in small steps, often according to a rule. • These are: Bolivia, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Zimbabwe. Fixed exchange rate bands: 6 • The exchange rate moves in a small band around a central rate, defined against a currency or basket of currencies. • Include Denmark, Egypt; previously, Euro Area countries. Crawling exchange rate bands: 5 • The exchange rate moves within a small band around a central rate, which is periodically adjusted. • E.g., Israel.

  7. Managed floating: 33 • The central bank intervenes to influence the exchange rate without pre-committing to a specific path for the rate. • Include Japan, Russia, India. Free floating: 47 • (Almost) no intervention by the central bank to influence the level of the exchange rate. • Include United States, Mexico, Canada, United Kingdom, Switzerland.

  8. Recent experience with exchange rate regimes: a shiftfrom intermediate regimes to more extreme regimes? Source: Fischer (2001) Journal of Economic Perspectives. Data on all IMF countries.

  9. Central Bank Intervention in the FX Marketand the Money Supply • To study the effects of central bank intervention in the FX market, first construct a simplified balance sheet for the central bank. • This records the assets and liabilities of a central bank. • Balance sheets use double booking keeping: each transaction enters the balance sheet twice.

  10. Liabilities Central Bank’s Balance Sheet Assets Foreign government bonds (official international reserves) Deposits of domestic banks • Currency in circulation • (previously central banks had to give up gold when citizens brought currency) • Gold (official international reserves) Domestic government bonds Loans to domestic banks (= discount loans in US) MS=Currency in circulation + Demand deposits

  11. Central Bank’s (CB) Balance Sheet (cont.) • Assets = Liabilities + Net worth • If we assume that net worth of the CB= 0 then assets = liabilities. • An increase in assets leads to an equal increase in liabilities. • A decrease in assets leads to an equal decrease in liabilities. • Changes in the CB’s balance sheet → changes in MS: A CB’s asset purchase paid by cash or check, raisesdomestic MS, since it injects currency in the economy or increases private banks’ deposits at the CB (conversely for asset sales). Purchases increase both assets and liabilities of CB. • When the central bank buys domestic bonds orforeign bonds, the domestic MS increases.

  12. Foreign Exchange Intervention • CBs trade foreign government bonds in the FX markets. • Quantities of foreign currency deposits and foreign government bonds that are bought and sold influence the exchange rate. • FX Intervention = a specific transaction, with the goal of affecting the value of the domestic currency: a CB buys (sells) foreign currency assets in exchange for domestic currency or checks -- which increases (decreases) banks’ deposits at the CB— .

  13. Sterilization • Because buying and selling of foreign bonds in the foreign exchange market affects the domestic MS, a CB may want to offset this effect = sterilization. • A foreign asset purchase increases MS. If the CB sells a domestic asset (e.g. sells domestic government bonds in bond markets) it reduces MS. • A foreign asset sale by CB reduces MS. The CB buys a domestic asset to increase the MS. • When a central bank sterilizes intervention, its transactions leave the domestic supply of money unchanged.

  14. Table 17-2: Effects of a $100 Foreign Exchange Intervention LiabilitiesAssets

  15. Fixed Exchange Rates • To fix the exchange rate, a CB influences the quantities supplied and demanded of currency by trading domestic and foreign assets, so that E (the price of foreign currency in terms of domestic currency) stays constant. • The FX market is in equilibrium when • R = R* + (Ee – E)/E • When E is fixed E=Ee and R = R*. Thus, to fix E, the CB must trade foreign and domestic assets until R = R*: it adjusts the MS until R=R*, given P and Y and thus • Ms/P = L(R*,Y)

  16. Fixed E • Suppose that the central bank has fixed the E=E0but Y rises, raising MD → higher R and upward pressure on the value of the domestic currency (E tends to fall). • How should the CB respond if it wants to fix E? • CB must buy foreign assets in the FX market • This increases the MS, reduces R and removes pressure on E. • Doing this, the CB buys assets denominated in foreign currency and supplies (sells) domestic currency: the price/value of foreign currency is increased and the price/value of domestic currency is decreased (E rises). Thus, if the CB decides to fix E by FX intervention, it must purchase foreign assets when Y rises and vice versa and keep MS constant.

  17. Exchange rate, E Returns 0 L(R, Y1) R* M/P 1 M1 P Real domestic money holdings Figure 17-1: Asset Market Equilibrium with a Fixed Exchange Rate, E0 To keep E=E0, the CB must purchase euros with $s or purchase euro assets, thus raise MS $return on euro deposits, R*+(E0–E)/E 1' E0 3' L(R, Y2) 3 M2 P 2

  18. Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate Monetary Policy (MP) is ineffective in changing Y: Under a fixed exchange rate, MP cannot be used to affect output, since the fixed exchange rate requires a fixed interest rate. Fiscal Policy (FP) is very effective in changing Y: Under a fixed exchange rate, fiscal policy is especially effective, since monetary expansion adds to the expansionary effects of fiscal policy. Suppose the central bank uses domestic open market operations to control R and FX intervention to peg E.

  19. E DD 2 E2 1 E0 AA2 AA1 Output, Y Y1 Y2 Figure 17-2: Monetary Expansion Is Ineffective Under a Fixed Exchange Rate To raise Y, CB expands MS by purchasing domestic assets. AA shifts right: R falls and E depreciates To bring E back (appreciate the $), the CB must sell foreign assets. AA shifts left. MS falls and R rises, until MS is back to its initial level: at that point, the rise in its domestic assets= decrease in foreign assets (official reserves): the AA curve has retraced: Y=Y1

  20. E DD1 DD2 3 1 E0 2 E2 AA2 AA1 Output, Y Y1 Y2 Y3 Figure 17-3: Fiscal Expansion is Effective Under a Fixed Exchange Rate • After a fiscal expansion, higher Y raises MD • To prevent an R rise • and a E fall the CB must increase the MS buy buying • foreign assets. • Monetary expansion • reduces R, brings E • back to E0 , and • further boosts the • growth of Y.

  21. Policy and Fixed Exchange Rates in the Long Run • Monetary policy is ineffective, Y can’t rise above YFE, hence no effect on P either. • With fiscal policy, if Y is above its normal (long run) level, wages and prices tend to rise. • A rising price level makes domestic products more expensive: a real appreciation (EP*/P falls). DD curve shifts left: AD and Y decrease as prices rise. • Prices rise until employment, AD and Y fall to their normal levels. • In the LR, rise in P is proportional to the rise in the MS caused by CB intervention in FX market. • AA curve shifts down (left) as prices rise. • E constant but EP*/P will be lower (a real appreciation).

  22. Devaluation and Revaluation • Depreciation and appreciation = changes in the value of a currency due to market changes. • Devaluation and revaluation = change in a fixed exchange rate caused by the central bank. The central bank announces that it will start trading the domestic currency against foreign currency in unlimited amounts at a new exchange rate.

  23. Devaluation • For devaluation to occur, the CB buys foreign assets, so that the domestic MS increases, and R falls, causing a fall in the return on domestic currency assets. • Domestic goods are cheaper, so AD and Y increase. • MS rises because its counterpart official international reserve assets (foreign bonds) increase. • Objective: the CB trades at a higher rate E to: • Fight domestic unemployment • Improve the current account • Build foreign currency reserves

  24. Exchange rate, E DD 2 E1 1 E0 AA2 AA1 Output, Y Y1 Y2 Figure 17-4: Effects of a Currency Devaluation The CB devalues the domestic currency, & the new fixed E=E1. For this, it buys foreign assets, increasing MS, decreasing R and increasing Y

  25. Exchange rate, E DD 1 E0 2 E1 AA1 AA2 Output, Y Y2 Y1 Effects of a Currency Revaluation The CB revalues the domestic currency, & the new fixed E=E1. For this, it sells foreign assets, decreasing MS, increasing R and decreasing Y • An infrequent policy • Intended to: • cool off the economy • fight inflation

  26. Financial Crises and Capital Flight • When a central bank does not have enough official international reserve assets to maintain a fixed exchange rate, a balance of payments (BOP) crisis results. • To sustain a fixed exchange rate, the central bank must have enough foreign assets to sell in order to satisfy the demand for them at the fixed exchange rate.

  27. Financial Crises and Capital Flight BOP crisis = a sharp drop in a CB’s FX reserves, sparked by a change in expectations about the future exchange rate Ee. Specifically: Expectation of a future devaluation of the currency causes: • investors to sell domestic assets for foreign assets (“capital flight”) • the CB to intervene, selling reserves to sustain the value of the domestic currency. Hence, the CB suffers a sharp drop in reserves and MS is reduced. • the domestic R to rise above the world R: by UIRP, an expected devaluation of the exchange rate (high Ee) is accompanied by a higher R, lower Y.

  28. E 2' 1' E0 R*+ (Ee1 –E0)/E0 R R*+ (Ee0 – E0)/E0 0 R* R*+ (Ee1 – E 0)/E 0 L(R,Y) 2 M2 P M1 P M/P 1 Real domestic money holdings Figure 17-7: Capital Flight, the Money Supply, and the Interest Rate

  29. Exchange rate, E DD 1 E0 3 E3 AA1 AA2 AA3 Output, Y Y3 Y1 Effects of a Currency Revaluation The expectations of devaluation might be so strong that the CB may have to raise R higher and higher to entice investors to hold domestic assets. The economy may face low MS, high R, depressed AD and Y, and unemployment (Y3). 2

  30. A currency crisis based on “fundamentals” occurs when: expectations of devaluation reflect a fundamental imbalance in the economy. Example: A large fiscal deficit causes investors to realize that soon or late the government will start to print money to finance the deficit. A “self-fulfilling”currency crisis occurs when: speculation feeds on itself (instead of being driven by “fundamentals”): if speculators believe an attack will succeed, they coordinate and make the attack successful. Example: If the government is believed to start printing money if forced off a peg. expectations of devaluation can cause a devaluation: self-fulfilling crisis.

  31. Financial Crises and Capital Flight (cont.) What happens if the CB runs out of official international reserves (foreign assets)? • It must devalue the domestic currency so that it takes more domestic currency (assets) to exchange for 1 unit of foreign currency (asset). • This will allow the CB to replenish its foreign assets by buying them back at a devalued rate, • increase the money supply, • reduce interest rates, • reduce the value of domestic products, • increase AD, Y, employment over time.

  32. Financial Crises and Capital Flight (cont.) • In a balance of payments crisis, • the central bank may buy domestic bonds and sell domestic currency (to increase the money supply) to prevent high interest rates, but this only depreciates the domestic currency more. • the central bank generally can not satisfy the goals of low interest rates and fixed exchange rates simultaneously.

  33. ************************************************ The exam is until this point. The rest of the chapter contains material that is not covered in class, and therefore not in the exam. But for those interested, it includes case studies about the economic and financial conditions in Mexico and Japan in the 1990s. *************************************************

  34. Interest Rate Differentials • For many countries, the expected rates of return are not the same: R > R*+(Ee –E)/E . Why? • Default risk: The risk that the country’s borrowers will default on their loan repayments. Lenders require a higher interest rate to compensate for this risk. • Exchange rate risk:If there is a risk that a country’s currency will depreciate or be devalued, then domestic borrowers must pay a higher interest rate to compensate foreign lenders.

  35. Interest Rate Differentials (cont.) • Because of these risks, domestic assets and foreign assets are not treated the same. • Previously, we assumed that foreign and domestic currency deposits were perfect substitutes: deposits everywhere were treated as the same type of investment, because risk and liquidity of the assets were assumed to be the same. • In general, foreign and domestic assets may differ in the amount of risk that they carry: they may be imperfect substitutes. • Investors consider this risk, as well as rates of return on the assets, when deciding whether to invest.

  36. Interest Rate Differentials (cont.) • A difference in the risk of domestic and foreign assets is one reason why expected returns are not equal across countries: R = R*+(Ee –E)/E +  where  is called a risk premium, an additional amount needed to compensate investors for investing in risky domestic assets. • The risk could be caused by default risk or exchange rate risk.

  37. Increase in the perceived risk of investing in domestic assets makes foreign assets more attractive and leads to a depreciation of the domestic currency. Or at fixed exchange rates, the return on domestic assets needs to be higher in equilibrium Interest Rate Differentials (cont.)

  38. CASE STUDY: The Mexican Peso Crisis, 1994–1995 • In late 1994, the Mexican central bank devalued the value of the peso relative to the US dollar. • This action was accompanied by high interest rates, capital flight, low investment, low production and high unemployment. • What happened?

  39. CASE STUDY: The Mexican Peso Crisis, 1994–1995 (cont.) Source: Saint Louis Federal Reserve

  40. Understanding the Crisis • In the early 1990s, Mexico was an attractive place for foreign investment, especially from NAFTA partners. • During 1994, political developments caused an increase in Mexico’s risk premium () due to increases in default risk and exchange rate risk: • peasant uprising in Chiapas • assassination of leading presidential candidate from PRI • Also, the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates during 1994 to prevent US inflation. (So, R* ! )

  41. Understanding the Crisis (cont.) • These events put downward pressure on the value of the peso. • Mexico’s central bank had promised to maintain the fixed exchange rate. • To do so, it sold dollar denominated assets, decreasing the money supply and increasing interest rates. • To do so, it needed to have adequate reserves of dollar denominated assets. Did it?

  42. US Dollar Denominated International Reserves of the Mexican Central Bank January 1994 ……………… $27 billion October 1994 …………………$17 billion November 1994 ………..…… $13 billion December 1994 ………..…… $ 6 billion During 1994, Mexico’s central bank hid the fact that its reserves were being depleted. Why? Source: Banco de México,http://www.banxico.org.mx

  43. Understanding the Crisis • 20 Dec 1994: Mexico devalues the peso by 13%. It fixes E at 4.0 pesos/dollar instead of 3.4 pesos/dollar. • Investors expect that the central bank has depleted its reserves. •  ! further due to exchange rate risk: investors expect that the central bank to devalue again and they sell Mexican assets, putting more downward pressure on the value of the peso. • 22 Dec 1994: with reserves nearly gone, the central bank abandons the fixed rate. • In a week, the peso falls another 30% to about 5.7 pesos/dollar.

  44. The Rescue Package: Reducing  • The US & IMF set up a $50 billion fund to guarantee the value of loans made to Mexico’s government, • reducing default risk, • and reducing exchange rate risk, since foreign loans could act as official international reserves to stabilize the exchange rate if necessary. • After a recession in 1995, Mexico began a recovery from the crisis. • Mexican goods were relatively cheap. • Stronger demand for Mexican products reduced negative effects of exchange rate risk.

  45. Types of Fixed Exchange Rate Systems • Reserve currency system: one currency acts as official international reserves. • The US dollar was the currency that acted as official international reserves from under the fixed exchange rate system from 1944–1973. • All countries but the US held US dollars as the means to make official international payments. • Gold standard: gold acts as official international reserves that all countries use to make official international payments.

  46. Reserve Currency System • From 1944–1973, each central bank fixed the value of its currency relative to the US dollar by buying or selling domestic assets in exchange for dollar assets. • Arbitrage ensured that exchange rates between any two currencies remained fixed. • Suppose Bank of Japan fixed the exchange rate at 360¥/US$1 and the Bank of France fixed the exchange rate at 5 Ffr/US$1 • The yen/franc rate would be 360¥/US$1 / 5Ffr/US$1 = 72¥/1Ffr • If not, then currency traders could make an easy profit by buying currency where it is cheap and selling it where it is expensive.

  47. Reserve Currency System (cont.) • Because most countries maintained fixed exchange rates by trading dollar denominated (foreign) assets, they had ineffective monetary policies. • The Federal Reserve, however, did not have to intervene in foreign exchange markets, so it could conduct monetary policy to influence aggregate demand, output and employment. • The US was in a special position because it was able to use monetary policy as it wished.

  48. Reserve Currency System (cont.) • In fact, the monetary policy of the US influenced the economies of other countries. • Suppose the US increased its money supply. • This would lower US interest rates, putting downward pressure on the value of the US dollar. • If other central banks maintained their fixed exchange rates, they would have needed to buy dollar denominated (foreign) assets, increasing their money supplies. • In effect, the monetary policies of other countries had to follow that of the US, which was not always optimal for their levels of output and employment.

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