1 / 11

Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rain Forecasting Tool Frank D. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL

Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rain Forecasting Tool Frank D. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 33149. QPE Techniques in TCs TRMM and gauges QPF Techniques in TCs R-CLIPER 2002 Storms Where do we go from here?. Support from NOAA JHT and NASA TRMM and CAMEX.

gwenllian
Télécharger la présentation

Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rain Forecasting Tool Frank D. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rain Forecasting ToolFrank D. MarksNOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 33149 • QPE Techniques in TCs • TRMM and gauges • QPF Techniques in TCs • R-CLIPER • 2002 Storms • Where do we go from here? Support from NOAA JHT and NASA TRMM and CAMEX

  2. QPE techniques in TCs: DATA: • TMI R estimates for 245 storms (December 1997-2000), globally, yielding 2121 events, from TD to CAT5 (Lonfat et al 2003). 1998-2000 TMI events by Intensity Storm Intensity Events % TD/TS 1361 64 Category 1-2 548 26 Category 3-5 212 10 Total 2121 • 560,000 hourly gauge estimates in 46 US landfalling hurricanes (1948-2000) (DeMaria 2003)

  3. QPF techniques in TCs: • Develop R-CLIPER from gauge and TMI climatology for operational and model QPF comparisons. • Project R-climatology along NHC forecast track.

  4. R-CLIPER • Radial distribution of R for gauge and TMI climatology consistent. • TMI peak R increases with intensity: 3 mm h-1 TD/TS; 7.2 mm h-1 CAT 1-2; 12.5 mm h-1 CAT 3-5. • TMI peak R radius decreases with storm intensity.

  5. R-CLIPER Cases 7.7” 15.9” 4.8” color contours denote Rtotal (inches, peak at landfall listed) Position and intensity from best track (6 h) 8.6” 4.1”

  6. R-CLIPER Cases Danny 97 • R-CLIPER underestimates area of Rtotal by factor of 2 using CDF. % of gauges PMM R-CLIPER/Gauge Rtotal 90% 90% Andrew 92 Allison 01 50% 50% % of area 20% Floyd 99

  7. QPF in Landfalling TCs • For 2002 season ran 584 forecasts in 32 storms in the ATL, EPAC, and CPAC for both the gauge and TRMM R-CLIPER.

  8. QPF in Landfalling TCs Gauge TRMM

  9. Where do we go from here? • R-CLIPER ran operationally in 2002 at NHC. • Provides benchmark for evaluation of other QPF techniques. • Develop data products for hurricane specialists. • Compare R-CLIPER forecasts to models and 6-h average rainfall amounts on HPC 1°X1° grid. • Work with HPC to provide track guidance after landfall.

  10. Comparison with Models Rogers et al 2002 • RCLIPER Rmax along track, with a probability of heavy rain right or left of track. • RCLIPER Rmax increases when storm slows or turns. • Model shows symmetry and asymmetry. RCLIPER

  11. QPF in Landfalling TCs ISSUES: • Are we providing our users what they need? Different users have different needs. • How do we develop an evaluation/validation system for high-resolution QPF product? • How will it be used operationally (probabilistic)? NEEDS: • New products developed for forecasters and hydrologists. • New display products to convey uncertainty to forecaster and others.

More Related