ICES advice for 2008 North Sea Martin Pastoors (chair of the Advisory Committee on Fishery Management) short version
New timing for North Sea advice • EC requested for earlier advice for North Sea • Allows more time for stakeholder inputs • long-term strategies • Expert group (WGNSSK) moved to early May • Advice provided early June • Some recruitment surveys in August / September • Updates ONLY if substantial changes
Basis for the ICES advice for 2008 • Assessment data • Fisheries (landings, discards, catch rates) up to 2006 • Surveys (including IBTS q1 survey in 2007) • CPUE information (up to 2006) • Recruitment information • Autumn surveys not yet available • Only difference with previous years • Recent average recruitment used in forecasts
Plenary meetings May 2007 Baltic Arctic Iceland & Greenland Faroe Islands Herring stocks North Sea (NEW !) October 2007 North Sea (updates) Celtic seas / West Scotland Bay of Biscay / Iberian Widely distributed stocks Advisory meetings (on fisheries)
Regional orientation • Advisory report organized by “Ecoregion”
Changes to timing of advice • EC has requested ICES to provide most advice before the summer • allows for stakeholder consultation processes • focus on long-term strategies • This year: North Sea as experiment • From 2008 onwards, for all stocks in EU waters • Still needs consultation on what type of advice
Three advisory committee’s Advisory Committee on Fishery Management (ACFM) Advisory Committee on Ecosystems (ACE) Advisory Committee on the Marine Environment (ACME) Layered system Expert groups Review groups (Subgroups) Advisory committee Only one (part-time) paid chair One advisory council oversee the advisory process make sure it adheres to quality standards Advisory “bureau” coordinate the advisory process 3-4 (part-time) positions Expert groups responsible for science AND drafting advice Review groups responsible for final advice Changes to ICES advisory structure Old New
Stock trends: SSB Cod Haddock Plaice Norway pout Saithe Sole
Stock trends: fishing mortality Cod Haddock Norway pout Plaice Saithe Sole
Stock trends: recruitment Cod Haddock Plaice Norway pout Saithe Sole
Status of fish stocks (with assessments) SSB F Only for Ecoregion North Sea“Unknown category” can includes stocks that are depleted or high
Details by stock • Cod North Sea, Eastern channel and Skagerrak • Haddock North Sea and IIIa • Whiting North Sea and VIId • Saithe North Sea, VIa and IIIa • Plaice North Sea • Sole North Sea • Plaice Eastern Channel • Sole Eastern Channel • Plaice Skagerrak and Kattegat • Norway pout North Sea (for 2007) ( Sandeel North Sea: provided in October) ( Elasmobranchs North Sea: no advice in 2007) ( Nephrops North Sea: no advice in 2007)
Cod • Assessment • Age based, 2 surveys, landings + discards • Estimates “unaccounted removals” • Issues • Underreporting (2002-2005) • Combined English and Scottish 3rd quarter surveys • Continued unaccounted removals • Accepted as analytical assessment
Cod: history of assessments Note: some of the previous assessment were presented as indicative of trends only. Ages over which mean fishing mortality is calculated was changed in 2004.
Cod: CPUE and stock trends Mean-standardized catch rates of North Sea cod recorded by English trawlers fishing in the first quarter of the year, the 2+ cod biomass as estimated by the 2006 ICES WGNSSK assessment and the IBTS Q1 survey.
14% reduced F in 2007, zero after Cod: forecasts 14% reduced F held constant
Cod: advice • Following the recovery plan • Blim to be achieved in 2009 if F were reduced to 86% of the F2006: total removals in 2008 of 76 500 t. • ICES advice • Low stock size and recent poor recruitment: stock cannot be rebuilt to Bpa in 2009 even with a zero catch. • Simulations that with low recruitment and zero catch in 2008 and 2009 is likely to achieve rebuilding of the stock to Bpa by 2009 (“large growth potential”)
Haddock • Assessment • Landings + discards + industrial bycatch • 3 surveys to calibrate • Issues • Strong 1999 yearclass; slow growing • 2005 yearclass is above average
Agreed management plan • January 2007 • Target F = 0.3, TAC constraint • ICES advice on management plan: 27 October 2007 • Conclusions • The agreed reference points in the management plan are consistent with the precautionary approach • Target F = 0.3 with TAC constraint ±15% leads on average to a <5% risk of B < Blim within the next 20 years. • Increasing the target F increases the risk. • Although the management plan has not been fully tested (e.g. at lower fishing mortalities), ICES concludes that the management plan can provisionally be accepted as precautionary and be used as the basis for advice.
Haddock in Sub-area IV (North Sea) and Division IIIa: history of assessments
Haddock: advice • Last year: • Fishing at F=0.3: landings 2007 = 55 400 t. • Associated discards: 32 500 t. • Target F is in accordance with precautionary approach • New advice • The agreed management plan can be provisionally accepted as precautionary • ICES therefore advises according to this plan. • This implies a TAC of 49 300 t in 2008 (15% change in TAC), which should include industrial bycatch..
Whiting • Assessment • Assessment indicative of recent trends (1995 …) • Discrepancies between historical survey data and catches • Issues • Recruitment in last 5 years appears very low
Whiting: “assessments” catch + surveys Surveys only
Whiting: trends in different areas • In the ICES 2006 report, research vessel surveys indicated a stable stock in the northern area and a declining stock in the southern area since 2001 • Fisher surveys indicated a decline in the northern component from 2001 to 2005, and a stable or increasing southern component. • Recent reports by some fleets indicate very low catch rates in the southern North Sea and English Channel during the past two years.
Whiting: advice • Advice last year • Recent average landings (2003-2005): 15 100 t. • New advice • Low catches have led to low fishing mortality from 2002–2005 • low recruitment has resulted in a declining SSB to the lowest observed. • Recent recruitment has been approximately 30% of average recruitments (year classes 1994–2001). • Given the relative reduction in recruitment it is necessary to reduce future landings in order to keep fishing mortality low. • Applying the reduction in recruitment to the average landings from the past three years corresponds to human consumption landings of 5 000 t in 2008.
Saithe • Assessment • Landings data, 2 CPUE series, 2 surveys • Issues • No exploitation on juveniles (not available to fishery) • Saithe management plan: target F 0.3 • will be evaluated in October 2007 • although ICES has not evaluated the agreed management plan, the target fishing mortality in the management plan is expected to give high long-term gains in the present situation
Saithe in Sub-area IV, Division IIIa (Skagerrak) & Sub-area VI: history of assessments
Saithe: advice • Last year • Target F in management plan is precautionary and gives higher long term gains • Follow management plan; TAC 136 000 t. • New advice • ICES has not evaluated the agreed management plan • Target fishing mortality in the management plan is expected to give high long-term gains • ICES therefore recommends to limit landings in 2008 to 150 000 t. • Area split: 91% in IV+IIIa, 9% in VI.
Plaice • Assessment • Landings + discards; 3 surveys • Discards • before 2000: model reconstruction • 2000 and after: NL + UK + DK discards sampling • Issues • Most recent information:nearly 80% of the catch by number is discarded. • all year classes since 2003 have been low
Plaice: fishing mortality by component discards landings
Plaice: advice • Last year • Rebuild to Bpa: landings 32 000 t. in 2007 • New advice • Rebuild to Bpa: landings 26 000 t in 2008 • TAC 2007: 50 000 t.
SoleNorth Sea home
Sole • Assessment • Landings data + 2 surveys + 1 CPUE series • Issues • Main fishery in southern North Sea; more coastal. • Mixed fishery with plaice; mesh size focussed on sole • Fishing mortality just below Fpa in 2006 • Yearclasses 2003 and 2004: weak • Yearclass 2005: above average
Sole: advice • Advice last year • rebuild to Bpa: landings 10 800 t. • New advice • SSB above Bpa: landings 13 900 t.