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Goals

Goals. Correlation/dependency: The storing of correlations and dependencies Integration: Methodology for integrating correlated risk distributions into models Dependency/causal models: The modeling of risk defined by presumed causes. Single value method. Check the Foundations.

hadley-fowler
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Goals

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  1. Goals • Correlation/dependency: The storing of correlations and dependencies • Integration: Methodology for integrating correlated risk distributions into models • Dependency/causal models: The modeling of risk defined by presumed causes Single value method

  2. Check the Foundations The requirement for integration suggests that we should look again at our formalism, to see why things do not easily integrate - can we find a more fundamental formalism where the problem does not appear?

  3. Active Uncommitted Structure A + B = C

  4. Logic and Numbers IF A + B = C THEN D + E = F

  5. Self-Modification A = SUM(List)

  6. Controllable Distributions

  7. Controllable Correlations

  8. Stochastic Analog

  9. Analytic and Experiential Structure A variable can have a PLUS operator on one side and a RELATION on the other.

  10. Integration The stochastic information is detailed, controllable, and has been integrated into an analytic framework

  11. Simulation - DFA doing 100,000 simulations ... but I don’t think it actually helps you answer some of the fundamental questions. [4]

  12. The Learning Element

  13. A Learning Structure

  14. A Strategy The tennis player uses a complex predictive strategy in what looks like a simple game

  15. Bringing to a Point A decision must be made, but every factor should play its part in the decision process, including what will happen soon

  16. The Tennis Analogy • The analogy is very close - we have a complex system moving through time in an environment it does not fully control. • There are severe local and global energy constraints. • Striving too hard to reach an immediate goal may cause it to be out of position for the next cycle. • The most desirable position is changing over time. • The system needs to continuously observe the current state and predict future events before making decisions.

  17. Another Level The tennis analogy only works so far. In comparison, you are playing on a field that is changing its shape, and the rules of engagement keep changing as well. Even more reason to bring more information into focus before making decisions.

  18. Complex Messages If we increase the complexity of the messages being transmitted, we can delay any decision until more information is available at a focus Deciding on a single value before we need to seems to be simpler, but we are limiting the complexity of our decision-making if we do that - we are solving an artificial problem, not the real problem

  19. The Single Value Method Single value methods may be fine for historical analysis, except that we are never sure exactly what happened in the past. They are not appropriate for complex systems moving through time - decisions are made too early and too little information can be brought into focus.

  20. Active Knowledge We build an internal model of the world, so we can predict future behavior - we make the model out of structure so we can combine it with other structure - we pass complex messages through the structure

  21. We are suggesting the goals of • Correlation/dependency • Integration • Dependency/causal models are best met by using an active uncommitted long-lived self-modifying structure propagating complex messages

  22. Risk Analysis based on Coincidence of Potential Events “Don Marcello arrested” “Bolivar seen in Teracino”

  23. Risk Analysis Model Real events spawn hypothetical events which spawn... The logical and time interaction of these event chains determines the risk of a catastrophic event

  24. One event may cause analysis and generation of other events, which may provide a link to a catastrophic event

  25. Don Marcello arrested Don Marcello incarcerated Possible reprisals Bolivar sighted in Teracino Use database of possible Teracino contacts and skills to produce Bomb may be under construction (hypothetical event connected to Marcello gang- alert effective for 3 months) Something (bad) in Palermo this month Fabrizzi will sentence Don Marcello on 29th The red and blue indicate criminal and police events. Criminal humint says “something will happen”, so we assume something bad. The importance of handling time intervals such as “this month” or “next week” should be emphasised. The system handles alternatives for people, places, times, actions - so it can easily see where events may collide. Events Colliding

  26. A network of operators linking parts of speech is being used to disambiguate the sentence before integrating it into knowledge about earthquakes. This part of the network is dynamic, and will disappear on completion. The quake struck The quake, with an estimated magnitude of 4.75, struck Athens around 0725.

  27. From Static to Dynamic The Active Structure formalism spans from static formulae to the most demanding dynamic analysis The quake struck The quake, with an estimated magnitude of 4.75, struck Athens around 0725.

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