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Engaging End Users for Decision Support System Development

This article discusses the importance of engaging end users in the development of decision support systems and provides insights into the process. Topics covered include assessing user needs, trends and opportunities, and a practical example of a road weather research application.

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Engaging End Users for Decision Support System Development

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  1. Decision Support System Development:Engaging End UsersBill MahoneyNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchResearch Applications Laboratory (RAL)

  2. Outline • NCAR/RAL background • Why is this topic important? • Defining a Decision Support System (DSS) • Assessing user needs • Trends and opportunities • DSS example – Road Weather

  3. Research Applications Laboratory • RAL About 200 people, approximately half are atmospheric scientists, and half are engineers • Mission • Develop Solutions: Work closely with customers to develop applications designed to solve specific problems • Technology Transfer: Transfer knowledge and technology to US government agencies, the private sector, and foreign governments

  4. Decision Support Systems What is a decision support system? • An automated tool that makes decisions? • A semi-automated tool? • A handbook of recommended practices? • Local newspaper or news program? • Student assistant? Answer: All the above!

  5. Why is this topic important? • The importance of connecting science to society has risen in the last decade. • Most new research funding is targeted or directed to support a societal need. • Researchers have traditionally not been well connected to end users making it difficult for society to take advantage of results. • Learning how to engage end users is critical for advancing science and technology.

  6. What is being done? • AMS Commission on the Climate and Weather Enterprise – established in January 2005 • Board On Enterprise Economic Development established to bridge the gap between end users and the weather and climate enterprise. • More companies and research organizations are engaging end users.

  7. AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise Commissioner: George Frederick Commission Steering Committee Commission Executive Committee Board on Enterprise Planning Chair: Terry Tarbell Board on Enterprise Communication Chair: Matt Parker Board on Enterprise Economic Development Chair: Bill Mahoney AMS Commission Organization

  8. Board on Enterprise Economic Development

  9. Decision Support Systems Before one can consider developing or implementing a DSS, some important questions need to be asked.

  10. Decision Support Systems First Question: 1) What problem(s) are you trying to solve? This must be asked several different ways before a potential solution may emerge.

  11. Decision Support Systems 2) What is the culture of your organization? - Would a DSS be seen as threatening? - Does automation pose problems? - Are general support tools viewed positively? 3) What actual decisions could be supported? 4) What job categories would benefit most?

  12. Decision Support Systems 5) What technical capabilities exist? - Is there an in-house framework for a DSS? > Network system (external & internal) > Desktop computers > Remote communications (PDAs) > Database of pertinent data Remote Systems

  13. Decision Support Systems 6) What are the potential benefits? - Safety - Productivity 7) Who will champion the technology? - Management vs. staff - Technology push or pull?

  14. Decision Support Systems • Application Categories: • Strategic Planning (condition prediction) • Tactical Planning (alert functions) • Operations Management (productivity) • Incident Management (notification function) • Risk Management • Evaluation of “What if?” scenarios • Training Tool (off line assessments)

  15. DSS Development Issues • There are no off-the-shelf plug and play weather and climate capabilities that can fully address the needs of all user communities. No “one-size-fits-all” solutions. • A “bottoms-up” rather than a “tops-down” approach should be used for DSS system development. • Stakeholders need to determine the level of sophistication that is required for their specific DSS application.

  16. NCAR/RAL Development Process

  17. Technical Risks & Challenges For Weather Related DSSs

  18. Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts • The weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized. • The weather research community has not traditionally been focused on the individual needs of specific user communities.

  19. Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts • What is usually required? • - High resolution information • (misoscale = 40 m to 4 km) • - Rapid updates • (minutes to hours) • Both short term and long lead time (seasonal) forecasts • Diverse set of input data

  20. Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts Users are now seeking: - Probability metrics (or confidence) for key meteorological parameters Example: “What is the probability of the high temperature Reaching 95F between 4 and 6 pm tomorrow?” “What is the probability of 3 inches of rain falling into my reservoir?”

  21. Winter Road Maintenance DSS

  22. MDSS User Needs Acquisition Process • Surface Transportation Weather Decision Support System Requirements (STWDSR) • Identified large Stakeholder Group • Discussed overall goals and objectives with large stakeholder group • Created focus group from stakeholder group • Assessed current practice • Developed concept of operations • Developed prototype design • Developed prototype – first step that code was written! • Demonstrated prototype • Iterated • Kept stakeholders in the loop throughout process

  23. Current Capabilities and Practice The highway maintenance managers currently use newspapers, Weather Channel, USA Today, NWS, and private meteorologists to make decisions. Road weather information systems are not integrated with road management systems. The winter road maintenance decision process is generally reactive in nature.

  24. Expressed Stakeholder Needs • On a plow route by plow route basis, users want: • Treatment Type (chemical, plow, sand, etc.) • Treatment Amount (lbs per lane mile, etc.) • Treatment Location (plow routes) • Treatment Timing (start/end)

  25. 2000-2005 State DOT MDSS Stakeholders 35 State Participants Includes the District of Columbia

  26. MDSS Products • Weather parameters • Air temperature • Relative humidity • Wind speed and direction • Precipitation type, rate, accumulation • Road Parameters • Road temperature • Bridge temperature • Bridge frost potential • Blowing snow potential • Road contamination & chemical concentration • Treatment Recommendations • Treatment type • Treatment amount • Treatment location

  27. MDSS Display Application

  28. Iowa DOT Field Demonstrations2003 - 2005 Verify results and be honest with stakeholders Don’t come across as a typical salesperson!

  29. Summary There are numerous challenges associated with the DSS development; however, scientific and engineering technologies are coming to fruition that are likely to produce significant benefits new user communities. Engaging the end users early and often results in better products and user acceptance!

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