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Exploring Cyclone Dynamics in the Atlantic-European Sector under Climate Change

This research project aims to systematically assess cyclones in the Atlantic-European sector using CMIP5 data, focusing on extreme storms, wind, and precipitation while analyzing their response to climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The project encompasses composite cyclone structures, particularly the moist processes affected by climate change, and studies natural variability over a century using re-analyses data. It includes objective tracking, statistical analyses, and downscaling techniques to enhance understanding of cyclone lifecycle and structure amidst changing climate conditions.

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Exploring Cyclone Dynamics in the Atlantic-European Sector under Climate Change

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  1. TEMPEST WP1

  2. Aims Three main aims:- • WP 1.1 Systematic assessment of CMIP5 cyclones. • Atlantic-European sector. • Verification against re-analyses. • Response to climate change, RCP4.5, 8.5. • Focus on extreme storms, winds and precip. • Identify mechanisms for change with WP2 and 3.

  3. Aims • WP1.2 Composite cyclone structures. • Explore composite structures of cyclones. • In particular moist processes. • Any changes with climate change. • WP1.3 Natural Variability • ACRE 100y re-analysis. • CMIP5, pre-industrial control, >500y . • Millennial, e.g. ECHAM5

  4. Methodology • Apply TRACK objective tracking. • Standard statistics, track, genesis, lysis densities. • Intensity distributions for properties along tracks, e.g. MSLP, winds, precip., vorticity. • Monte Carlo significance testing for verification/changes. • Cyclone compositing for structure and lifecycles; orientation and tilts. • Traditional analyses, e.g. Large scale.

  5. People TEMPEST • Giuseppe Zappa, post-doc; CMIP5 analysis. • Matt Hawcroft, PhD; diabatic processes, compositing. Associated • Robert Lee, PhD; Re-analyses, CMIP5 analysis. • Tom Philp, PhD; satellite observations and cyclones – re-analyses. • Adrian Champion, PhD; downscaling; DEMON.

  6. Previous Results Track Density Wind Speed ECHAM5 (925hPa) HiGEM (850hPa)

  7. Compositing 925hPa system relative winds ERA40 HiGEM

  8. Work So Far (Re-Analyses) ERAI-NCEP (Track density) ERAI-NCEP (Genesis density) QS v Interim (10m) Winds (925hPa)

  9. ATHENA (Synoptic) T159 - Interim T2047 - Interim MSLP 925hPa Winds 850hPa Vorticity

  10. ATHENA – Climate Change Track Density Differences T159, A1B-20C T1279, A1B-20C

  11. Downscaling

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