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Population decline in Poland – country, regions and cities. Some insights to policy responses

Population decline in Poland – country, regions and cities. Some insights to policy responses. Dr Anna Kurowska Warsaw University. Seminar on population shrinking, March 23, 2011, Brussels. Mind map of the presentation:.

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Population decline in Poland – country, regions and cities. Some insights to policy responses

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  1. Population decline in Poland – country, regions and cities. Some insights to policy responses Dr Anna Kurowska Warsaw University Seminar on population shrinking, March 23, 2011, Brussels

  2. Mind map of the presentation: Deaper causes of population shrinkage at the local level (case study) Characteristics of population shrinkage at the central, regional and local level Main direct causes of population shrinkage at each level RECENT POLICY RESPONSES TO THE POPULATION SHRINKAGE AT THE CENTRAL AND REGIONAL LEVEL

  3. Graph 1. Population in Poland 1946-2009 growth stabilisation slight decline

  4. Graph 2. Natural increase (per 1000 population) in Poland 1946-2009 Fertility rate ab 1,38 Graph 3. Net international migration (per 1000 population) in Poland 1948-2009 post-accession (EU) emigration

  5. Graph 4. Population prognosis for Poland 2010-2035

  6. Map 1. Polish regions in Europe – population progosis

  7. Map 2. Subregions in Poland – population density in 2008 and population change 2000-2008 Population density (inh. per 1km) Population change 2000-2008 increase decline Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020

  8. Map 3. Regions in Poland – population and prognosis on population change 2008-2030 Population in thousands Population prognosis 2008-2030 (%) increase decline Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020

  9. Map 4. Regions of the highest population decline between 2010-2035 (prognosis) > -5% > -10%

  10. Map 5. Natural increase in 2009 by regions in Poland Source: Polish Demographic Yearbook 2010

  11. Map 6. Intensity of international migrations (immigrations) in the pre- and post-accession period in Polish regions. Number of international migrants per 1000 inhabitants Pre-accesion period Post-accesion period Source: Polska 2030

  12. Map 7. Contribution of the regions to the Polish GDP (2007) In percent In absolute value Within voivodship centres Outside voivodship centres Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020

  13. Map 8. Average GDP per capita in subregions as a percent of country average in the years 2004-2007 Average subregional GDP per capita as a % of Polish average in 2004-2007 Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020

  14. Map 9. Subregional GDP growth compared to the country average 2004-2007 The difference between the average growth in Poland and GDP dynamics in the regions in 2004-2007 Higher than the average Lover than average

  15. Shrinking cities in Poland - tendencies: Number of inhabitants (in thousands) of medium size cities Between 1990-2004 (transformation period): From 38 cities with over 100 thous. inhabitants - 24 shrinked After accession to EU (2004-2009): From 38 cities with over 100 thous. inhabitants - 35 shrinked Number of inhabitants (in thousands) in large cities http://www.gazetaprawna.pl

  16. Map 10. Cities with the highest intensity of socio-economic problems Problem intensity Low Very high Source: Polska 2030

  17. Graph 5. Population change in Katowice, Bytom and Sosnowiec 1950-2009 Systemic transformation: Deindustrialization + Suburbanization

  18. Recent policy responses at the central level: Responses to negative net international migration: - Program „Powrót” 2007 (Homecoming): *e-services for Polish emigrants: www.powroty.gov.pl *tax-credits and lowering social security contributions for returning Polish emigrants-entrepreneurs *social campaigns *language lessons for children of Polish emigrants -Immigration policy Responses internal migration and depopulation of some regions and cities: -New National Strategy for Regional Development (2010-2020): *polarization-diffusion model (PDM) *restoring functionality to strategic cities within the frames of (PDM): Szczecin, Łódź, Upper Silesian Conurbation: e.g. Katowice, Sosnowiec, Bytom * Improving accessibility to regional growth centers Responses to low natural increase: Family policy: -longer than UE average: maternity (2009) and parental leaves -child tax credits (+joint family taxation) (2007) -family benefits: means-tested and universal – „becikowe” (2005) (low efficiency) -public kindergartens -new (2011) Act on childcare for children up to 3 years

  19. Exaples of support to the regional and local authorities within the frames of NSRD 2010-2020: • Investments in infrastructure (highways, express roads, high-speed railways, air connections) and institutional relations between provincial centers • Modernization of public services in order to increase consistency, access and efficiency • Investments in education, science and technology in those provincial cities that are loosig their functionality • Promoting enterpreneurship in the East Poland an other areas loosing their current socio-economic functionality • Supporting socio-economic specialization of different regions and local areas based on their comparative advantages (supporting the development of clusters)

  20. NSRD 2010-2020 – examples of targets (indicators):

  21. Policy responses at the regional and local level – case study of (Upper) Silesian Voivodship : • Zoning + Development Strategy of Silesia Voivodship (2004 and 2010): • Not much attention paid strictly to the problem of shrinking population • In the context of shrinking population of the central and North-West parts of Voivodship, the planned directions are: • strengthening the functions of the nodal centers of the settlement network (II) • protection of environmental resources, strengtheningsystem of protected areas and multifunctional development of open areas (III) • development of supra-local infrastructure systems (IV) • stimulate innovation in the regional systemof space management (V) • interregional cooperation in the space planning (VI)

  22. Examples of actions in the Upper Silesian Conurbation: • Creating 2 high technology centers • Creating technology parks on post-industrial areas i.a. in Sosnowiec • Raising the rank of cultural heritage objects (recognition as a historic monument – to enter the UNESCO World Heritage List), including historic churches, post-industrial buildings,timber  building • Investments in turistic areas i.a. near Katowice (Dolina Trzech Stawów) & Częstochowa (Jura Krakowsko-Częstochowska) • Investments in local and interregional transport

  23. CONCLUSIONS: • Since the end of the XX century Polish population started to shrink. The prognosis show that this process will continue in the next 25 years. • The major cause of the population decline is close to 0 or negative natural increase. The second problem is the negative net international immigration rate. • Poland is characterized by significant regional differences in the natural increase and net immigration rate. The Central-South voivodships and the East Poland are the regions that are especially threatened by population decline. • One of the local areas that are shrinking quickly is Upper Silesian Conurbation – highly urbanized area that experienced intensive deindustrialization during the transformation period. • As the depopulation is regionally highly correlated with slower economic growth and social problems, the Polish policy at the central, regional and local level is concentrated on solving socio-economic problems and not directly on depopulation processes. The regional policy follows the ideal of diffusion-polarization model. • The important policy actions are: enforcing regional growth centers (provincial cities), investing in local and interregional transport, supporting entrepreneurship and investing in technology/science and education/cultural centers.

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