PPD132 /ESS182 Sustainable Development 2 Spring 2010

1. PPD132 /ESS182Sustainable Development 2Spring 2010 Lecture 3: Land Use and Land Cover Professor Richard Matthew

2. Announcements Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover Break Landscape: Aral Sea Q and A Group Projects Overview

3. Announcements

4. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Cloud of hydrogen molecules collapsed to form the sun • Every second 4 million tonnes of matter are converted into energy • From the dust associated with the sun, planets accreted about 4.5 billion years ago • 4 billion years ago some molecules became self-replicating • Early life transformed the abiotic conditions of the earth

5. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Abiotic: • Atmosphere: 71% nitrogen; 28% oxygen • Hydrosphere: oceans = 71% of surface • Pedosphere: soil • Lithosphere: tectonic plates • Biotic: • Biosphere: evolved over 3.5-4 billion years • Linked to abiotic—they shape each other • Abiotic: latitude; altitude; water; wind; energy • Biotic: photosynthesis

6. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Biosphere organized into biomes: dominant living communities, closely associated with latitude • Tropical • Temperate • Desert • Boreal • Tundra

7. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Tropical rain forests: • warm temperatures, high rainfall • high diversity • evergreen • Tropical seasonal (deciduous) forests: • warm temperatures • medium to high diversity • deciduous trees • Tropical savannas: • scattered trees in grassland • high temperature • low rainfall • Montane tropical systems:  • cool but constant year round

8. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Temperate deciduous forests: • moderate temperature and precipitation • Temperate evergreen forests: • evergreen trees • typically cooler OR more acidic OR drier than deciduous forests • Temperate rain forest: • evergreen trees with mosses common • occur near ocean • high rainfall and fog • Temperate grassland: • dominated by grasses • relatively dry • Temperate shrubland: • chapparal (California) - many species • shinnery(Oklahoma) - oaks + sumac • pocosin (Carolinas) - heath • often dry, nutrient-poor; fire usually important

9. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Deserts • at all latitudes, but especially 30° N and S, in rainshadows, and near cold ocean currents • low rainfall • temperature cold to hot • Succulent and spine-bearing plants

10. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Boreal forest • cold climates (Canada, Siberia) • usually much snow; dominated by evergreen conifers

11. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Tundra • high mountains or high latitudes • very cold climate • called "arctic desert" because water is unavailable (ice) • few or no trees • permafrost important

12. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Within biomes: • Ecosystems • Communities • Populations • Individuals

13. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Ecology is the study of the factors that determine the distribution and abundance of life forms • 30-100 million species • Species interbreeds under natural conditions • Speciation: creation of a new species • Evolution: individual mutations that confer a survival advantage • Allopatric: outside range • Sympatric: within range

14. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • 13 billion hectares of land on the planet • 8.8 billion ha of this is productive land • Non-human species require 12-50% of the productive land • Humans therefore have between .9 and 1.5 ha available per capita • This amount is shrinking due to environmental degradation and population growth • Moreover, human use is currently over 2.3 ha per capita • 50% of humans are poor including 17% who are desperately poor • Underlying much conflict is the struggle of the poor to gain access to resources so they can move out of poverty, and of the rich to protect their privileged access, under conditions of real resource scarcity

15. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • In many countries, land distribution and access are among the most important issues and may be affected by custom, statutory law and religious law • Key issue in US—private versus public • Government has a right to regulate land use and famous “takings” provision of constitution but 5th Amendment guarantees equal protection, due process and compensation • Much depends on why government takes land, and what the economic impact is

16. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Private property: • Right to transfer, exclude and enjoy (what about water, minerals, etc) • Compare to public goods, common pool resources and club goods • Jointness and exclusivity • Much of the constraints on private property are formulated at the local level through zoning laws that regulate type of use, density, building dimensions, and so on for agricultural, residential, commercial/retail and industrial areas

17. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • I = P x A x T

18. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Population: • Demography: statistical analysis of populations, especially—fertility, mortality and movement; also density and composition • Data typically come from censuses and vital statistics registries • Birth rate: annual number of live births /1000 people • Fertility rate: annual number of live births /1000 women of childbearing age • Total fertility rate: number of live births/woman • Death rate: annual number of deaths /1000 people • Infant mortality rate: annual number of deaths of children under age one/1000 people

19. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Population growth = (births – deaths) + (immigration – emigration) • Can be reduced through positive factors (e.g. disease) and preventive factors (e.g. family planning)

20. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) • The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world. • Principles of Population (1798)

21. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Slow growth in primitive economies • Rapid growth during industrialization • Slow growth (if any) when a society becomes affluent • Question: why do affluent people have few children?

22. World Population Growth Through History Billions 12 11 2100 10 9 Modern Age Old 8 Iron Middle Bronze Stone Age New Stone Age Ages Age Age 7 Future 6 2000 5 4 1975 3 1950 2 1900 1 1800 Black Death — The Plague 2000 1+ million 7000 6000 5000 3000 1000 A.D. 4000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

23. World Population Growth, in Billions Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 130 (1930) 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 14 (2027) 21 (2048) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

24. Growth in More, Less Developed Countries Billions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

25. Trends in Population Growth Worldwide Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods Percent increase per year Millions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

26. Projected Population Change, by Country Percent Population Change, 2005-2050 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

27. Women of Childbearing Age Number of Women 15 to 49 Billions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

28. Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility Worldwide Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

29. Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

30. 10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide Average number of children per woman, 2000-2005 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

31. Age Distribution of the World’s Population Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Age 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Male Female Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

32. Urban Growth • http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/world/06/urbanisation/html/urbanisation.stm

33. Trends in Urbanization, by Region Urban Population Percent Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

34. Urbanization in Central America Population Living in Urban Areas Percent Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

35. Largest Cities, Worldwide Millions 1950 2000 2015 Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

36. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Affluence

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39. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • The United States, with less than 5 % of the global population, uses about a quarter of the world’s fossil fuel resources—burning up nearly 25 % of the coal, 26 % of the oil, and 27 % of the world’s natural gas. • As of 2003, the U.S. had more private cars than licensed drivers, and gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles were among the best-selling vehicles. • New houses in the U.S. were 38 % bigger in 2002 than in 1975, despite having fewer people per household on average. • An estimated 65 % of U.S. adults are overweight or obese, leading to an annual loss of 300,000 lives and at least $117 billion in health care costs in 1999. • In 2002, 61 % of U.S. credit card users carried a monthly balance, averaging $12,000 at 16 % interest. This amounts to about $1,900 a year in finance charges—more than the average per capita income in at least 35 countries (in purchasing power parity).

40. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Global Priority $U.S. Billions • Cosmetics in the United States 8 • Ice cream in Europe 11 • Perfumes in Europe and the United States 12 • Pet foods in Europe and the United States 17 • Business entertainment in Japan 35 • Military spending in the world 780 • Global Priority $U.S. Billions • Basic education for all 6 • Water and sanitation for all 9 • Reproductive health for all women 12 • Basic health and nutrition 13

41. Lecture on Land Use and Land Cover • Technology • Cheap, powerful, fast • Not sustainable

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