Nuclear Terrorism Presentation to accompany reading in Allison in Science and Public Policy, Physics 3000
Difference between nuclear threats from countries and nuclear threats from terrorist groups such as Al Qaida. Smuggling nuclear fission bombs into the country rather than delivering them by missile. Building a nuclear bomb The destructive power of dirty bombs compared to the destructive power of true nuclear fission bombs. How has nuclear technology spread from the U.S. since WWII? Difference between nuclear fission reactor technology for peaceful production of energy and how that same technology can lead to weapons. Treaties and policies Reactor safety Key issues to be addressed
Comment on the following quotes from Nuclear Terrorism: • "It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when!" (retired 4-star general and nuclear anti-terror expert, Eugene Habiger) • "Dirty nuclear bombs are weapons of mass disruption, not mass destruction" (Allison) • "If the essential nuclear materials are at hand, it is possible to make an atomic bomb using information available in the open literature." (John Foster, former director of Laurence Livermore Laboratories) • "The most urgent unmet national security threat to the U.S. today is the danger that weapons of mass destruction in Russia could be stolen ... and sold to terrorists" (Baker report to Pres. Bush, 2001)
How big is an atomic bomb? Plutonium bomb Uranium bomb12 kilotons 20 kilotonNagasaki bomb Today's nuclear weapons are much smaller
Only two or three out of 65 shipping containers would be inspected 20,000 shipping containers enter US Ports in 1 day, but only 3 or 4% are inspected
Soviet nuclear suitcase bomb Are 84 of some 132 special KGB 1 kton suitcase nuclear weapons unaccounted for as first claimed by Yeltsin's assistant for national security affairs, General Alexander Lebed, and then retracted?
The World's Largest and Smallest Nuclear Weapons • The 100 megaton bomb and a 152 millimeter artillery projectile exhibited in the Chelyabinsk-70 museum in Russia during the visit of an American delegation
THIRD MILLENNIUM FOUNDATIONPO Box 1105, Auburn, WA 98071July 2003 abolishnukes.com
How easy is it to get plans to build an atomic bomb once you have the materials? Here are the results of a Google search on "Atomic Bomb Design" • Early Los Alamos implosion model for the plutonium bomb
More on the Los Alamos implosion device for a plutonium bomb (Google search)
Effects of dirty cobalt bomb on NYC Simulation of long-term contamination due to a cobalt-60 bomb in New York City. The bomb contained the amount of cobalt-60 found in one rod at a food-irradiation facility. Cancer deaths due to radiation: Inner ring: One per 100 people Middle ring: One per 1,000 Outer ring: One per 10,000 Courtesy Federation of American Scientists.
Comparison of deaths from the 9/11 attack on the WTC, the Tsunami in Indonesia and a possible 10 kiloton atomic bomb detonation in NYC
There are currently eight states that we know have successfully detonated nuclear weapons. • Five are considered to be “nuclear weapons states”, an internationally recognized status conferred by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In order of acquisition of nuclear weapons these are: • the United States of America • Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) • the United Kingdom • France • the People’s Republic of China • Since the formulation of the NPT, three non-signatory states of the NPT have conducted nuclear tests: • India • Pakistan • North Korea • In addition to these eight, Israel is believed to be an undeclared nuclear power
CHECHNYA To N. Korea LIBYA The spread of nuclear weapons from Pakistan
General MacArthur wanted the option to use atomic warfare in Korea but was overruled by President Truman
NTI, theNuclear Threat Initiative is working to reduce the global threats from nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and is co-chaired by Ted Turner and Sam Nunn. http://www.nti.org/index.html • NCI, theNuclear Control Institute Website http://www.nci.org/ links to a very long page specifically on Nuclear Terrorism which has many good additional links and news items on all aspects of this subject • Wikepedia, the free online encyclopedia has a good Website on technical and historical aspects of nuclear fission weapons.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon#Fission_bombs Websites where you can get reliable information concerning nuclear terrorism and weapons of mass destruction
Cheap electricity via nuclear reactors, es- pecially for 3rd world More nuclear reactors coulddecrease US reliance on oil,reducing influence of mideast oil-producing countries BUT ARE THEY SAFE? Spent nuclear fuel rodscan be a target for terrorists Possession of centrifuges means both LEUand HEU uranium can be produced Plutonium can be re- processed from spent nuclear fuel rods Atomic weaponsfor nations andfor terrorists The twofaces of nuclear energy Fission of uranium 235 or plutoniumreleases energy
"Atoms for Peace" was the title of a speech delivered by Dwight D. Eisenhower to the UN General Assembly in New York City in 1953 http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/dwightdeisenhoweratomsforpeace.html The United States then launched an "Atoms for Peace" program that supplied equipment and information to schools, hospitals, and research institutions within the U.S. and throughout the world. As part of the program, the U.S. supplied research reactors and HEU to forty-threecountries, including Iran, Israel and South Africa Today there is enough HEU at these sites for over a thousandnuclear weapons Allison regards this as a mistake Recommends either replacing HEU technology with LEU technology or buying out the HEU and closing the sites (Pg. 155) Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” program
189 states signed the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, including all five Nuclear Weapons States (NWS): China, France, Russia, UK, and USA. Non-signatories to NPT are Israel, Pakistan, and India Latter two have since tested nuclear weapons Israel is considered to be unacknow-ledged nuclear weapons state North Korea was once signatory; withdrew in 2003 became nuclear power in 2006 NPT's main objectives: to stop further spread of nuc. weapons to provide security for non-nuclear weapon states which have given upnuclear option to encourage international co-operation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy to pursue negotiations towards nuclear disarmament and eventual elimination of nuclear weapons. Article VI: nuclear weapons states should pursue plans to reduce and liquidate their stockpiles. Not been adhered to by NPT-recognized nuclear weapon states. Failure of NPT-recognized nuclear weapon states to comply with disarm-ament obligations provided justification for some non-signatories to develop their own nuclear arsenals. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
The IAEA was set up by unanimous resolution of the United Nations to help nations develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. In addition, IAEA provides as-surance to international community that individual countries are honour-ing their commitments under NPT. IAEA regularly inspects civil nuclear facilities to verify accuracy of documentation supplied to it. Agency checks inventories, and samples and analyzes materials. Safeguards are designed to deterdiversion of nuclear material by increasing the risk of early detection. They are complemented by controls on the export of sensitive technology from countries such as UK and USA through voluntary bodies such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Main concerns of IAEA Uranium should not be enriched beyond what is necessary for commercial civil plants Plutonium produced by nuclear reactors not be refined into a form suitable for bomb production. International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA)
ARTICLE IV: .. inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with articles I and II of Treaty. Parties .. should ..participate in the fullest possible exchange of equipment, materials and scientific and technological information for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Parties to the Treaty shall cooperate in the further development of the applications of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, especially in the territories of non-nuclear-weapon States. Deficiency (Allison pg. 155) Same facilities that can produce LEU uranium or plutonium for reactor fuel can also be used to produce HEU or bomb-usable plutonium for nuclear weapons. Proposed solution: “Carrot” Guarantee supply of reactor fuel to non-nuclear weapons states at less than half- cost Dispose of their spent fuel “Stick” Enforcement by political isolation and economic sanctions + Readiness to use covert and overt military force Deficiencies of Article IV of NPT
In 1993 a program was initiated to strengthen and extend the classical safeguards system, and a model protocol was agreed by the IAEA The measures boosted the IAEA's ability to detect undeclared nuclear activities, including those with no connection to the civil fuel cycle. This would be achieved by theAdditional Protocol. This must be agreed by each non-weapons state with IAEA. Weapons states have agreed to accept the principles of the Additional Protocol. Key elements of the Additional Protocol: The IAEA is to be given considerably more information on nuclear and nuclear-related activities, including R & D, production of uranium and thorium (regardless of whether it is traded), and nuclear-related imports and exports. IAEA inspectors will have greater rights of access. This will include any suspect location, it can be at short notice (e.g., two hours), and the IAEA can deploy environmental sampling and remote monitoring techniques to detect illicit activities. The “Additional Protocol” of the NPT
A posse of sixteen nations will interdict suspected shipments of weapons of mass destruction and missiles (pg. 160) Allison proposal - Expand Make proliferation an international crime Allison: UN should ratify Bush admin. resolution of 2004 Require member states to “adopt and enforce laws to stop any non-state actor from being able to manufacture, acquire, possess, develop, transport or use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and their means of delivery” Permit use of military force to enforce compliance. See update 2011 in a few slides Bush’s “Proliferation Security Initiative,”
As of February 2007 the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, India, and Pakistan have neither signed nor ratified the CTBT, and the People's Republic of China, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Israel and the United States have not ratified it. The United States, the PRC, India, Pakistan, and the DPRKare statespossessingnuclear weapons that have notratified the treaty. Israel has not ratified the treaty and is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, although Israel has never officially confirmed or denied this. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) would ban all nuclear explosions in all environments, for military or civilian purposes.
Updates on Treaties (2011) • The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) is a global effort to stop trafficking of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), their delivery systems, and related materials to and from states and non-state actors of proliferation concern. • Launched by United States President George W. Bush in May 2003, the PSI has now grown to include the endorse-mentof 98 nations around the world, including Russia, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Ger-many, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Singapore, New Zealand, Republic of Korea and Norway. • Despite the support of over half of the Members of the United Nations, a number of major international powers have expressed opposition to the initiative, including India, China, Indonesia, and Malaysia. • START (for STrategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was a bilateral treaty between U.S. and USSR on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, signed on 31 July 1991 and entered into force on 5 December 1994. Barred its signatories from deploying more than 6,000 nuclear warheads atop a total of 1,600 ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers. • START negotiated largest and most complex arms control treaty in history. Final imple–mentation in late 2001 resulted in removal of 80 percent of all strategic nuclear weapons then in existence. Renamed START I after negotiations began on 2nd START treaty. • START I treaty expired 5 December 2009. On 8 April 2010, the replacement New START treaty was signed by U.S. President Obama and Russian President Medvedev. Following ratification by the U.S. Senate and the Federal Assembly of Russia, it went into force on 26 January 2011.
Global Zero Initiative (2011) • International initiative launched in December 2008 to promote elimination of nuclear weapons. • Proposes a phased withdrawal and verification for the destruction of all devices held by official and unofficial members • Four-phased strategy to reach global zero accord over 14 years (2010–2023) and to complete dismantlement of all remaining nuclear warheads over next seven years (2024–2030) • Phase 1 (2010–2013) Following conclusion of a START replacement accord, negotiate a bilateral accord for the United States and Russia to reduce to 1,000 total warheads each. • Phase 2 (2014–2018) U.S. and Russia reduce to 500 total warheads each by 2021 as long as all other nuclear weapons countries agree to freeze their stockpiles until 2018. Further reductions until 2021. • Comprehensive verification and enforcement • Safeguards on the civilian nuclear fuel cycle to prevent diversion of materials to build weapons. • Phase 3 (2019–2023) Negotiate global zero accord, signed by all nuclear capable countries, for the phased, verified, proportional reduction of all nuclear arsenals to 0 warheads by 2030. • Phase 4 (2024–2030) Complete reduction of all nuclear arsenals to zero total warheads by 2030 and continue verification and enforcement. • Over past twenty years (1989–2009), U. S. and Russia retired and destroyed twice as many nuclear warheads (40,000+) as this action plan proposes (20,000+) over next twenty years (2009–2030).
Questions for class • Does Allison recommend that we combat nuclear terrorism by building more nuclear weapons? • No, since the terrorists are not States and we would not be able to retaliate against them using missiles with nuclear warheads anyway. We have more than enough nuclear weapons! • According to Allison, how many billion dollars should be in the Federal budget to combat nuclear terrorism? Compare this to the budget for Iraq and defense. • On page 177, Allison states that we should be spending $5 - $10 billion for “total war” on nuclear terrorism. We have spent almost a trillion dollars on the war in Iraq. • What is the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program and how much do we spend each year on it? • Page 177: It is a program designed to secure nuclear weapons and materials in the former Soviet Union. We spend $1 billion each year on it and the amount is decreasing rather than increasing. • Has the war in Iraq been successful in reducing nuclear terrorism or terrorism in general? • No. It has distracted us from fighting Al Qaida in Afghanistan and elsewhere and delayed retaliation against Bin Laden. It has cost us a lot and Iraq has become a breeding place for more terrorists. It has also diminished our prestige and respect for us around the world, making it more difficult to secure international agreements to share intelligence regarding terrorism and cooperate in anti-terrorist measures. Example of Spain in which the pro US Spanish government was defeated over the Iraq issue. • 27 starred questions from pgs. 210-220 (closed books)
Allison's NO's • No loose nukes • Fix the Russia problem and extend solution everywhere • Nunn-Lugar authorized funds for DoD to secure Soviet nuclear warheads • Need plan to secure all nuclear weapons and weapons-usable material on the fastest possible timetable in Pakistan and other nuclear states • “Gold-standard” • No new nascent nukes • Prevent Iran and others from being able to produce nuclear weapons • Why does Iran need nuclear power reactors when it has cheap oil? • Reactors should run on LEU rather than HEU. LEU should be sold to them cheaply • All states should be prohibited from operating enrichment and reprocessing facilities • No new nuclear states • Current nuclear states are • US, Russia, Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel • Prevent Korea from becoming a new nuclear state! • Is it already too late? • Freeze their nuclear weapons activity at current level, dismantle their fissile material production facilities, remove fissile materials, and eliminate their current weapons • Offer carrot as well as stick: Economic and diplomatic package. Example of Libya
Explain Allison's YES's • Making the prevention of nuclear terrorism an absolute national priority • Fighting a strategically focused war on terrorism • Conducting a humble foreign policy • Building a global alliance against nuclear terrorism • Creating the intelligence capabilities required for success in the war on nuclear terrorism
Nuclear power plant accidents • Chernobyl -> • http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/fschernobyl.html • 3-mile island • http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/3mile-isle.html
Life imitates art. Movie about nuclear power plant accident preceded 3-Mile Island • James Bridges directed this 1979 film that became a worldwide sensation when, just weeks afterits release, the Three Mile Island nuclear accident occurred. • Jane Fonda plays a television news reporter who is not taken very seriously until a routine story at the local nuclear power plant leads her to what may be a cover-up of epic proportions.
On March 28, 1979, the plant experienced a failure in the secondary, non-nuclear section. The main pumps stopped running, caused by either a mechanical or electrical failure, which prevented the steam generators from removing heat. First the turbine, then the reactor automatically shut down. Immediately, the pressure in the primary system (the nuclear portion of the plant) began to increase. In order to prevent that pressure from becoming excessive, the pilot-operated relief valve opened. The valve should have closed when the pressure decreased by a certain amount, but it did not. Signals available to the operator failed to show that the valve was still open. As a result, cooling water poured out of the stuck-open valve and caused the core of the reactor to overheat. The operators did not realize that the plant was experiencing a loss-of-coolant accident. They took a series of actions that made conditions worse by simply reducing the flow of coolant through the core. Because adequate cooling was not available, the nuclear fuel overheated to the point at which the long metal tubes which hold the nuclear fuel pellets ruptured and the fuel pellets began to melt. It was later found that about one-half of the core melted during the early stages of the accident. What happened at 3-Mile Island? Although the TMI-2 plant suffered a severe core meltdown, the most dangerous kind of nuclear power accident, it did not produce the worst-case consequences that reactor experts had long feared. In a worst-case accident, the melting of nuclear fuel would lead to a breach of the walls of the containment building and release massive quantities of radiation to the environment. But this did not occur as a result of the Three Mile Island accident.
What happened at Chernobyl? • On April 26, 1986, a major accident, determined to have been a reactivity (power increase) accident, occurred at Unit 4 of the nuclear power station at Chernobyl, Ukraine, in the former USSR. The accident destroyed the reactor and released massive amounts of radioactivity into the environment. • After the accident, access to the area in an 18-mile radius around the plant was closed. The evacuated population numbered approximately 135,000. Pripyat, the town near Chernobyl where most of the workers at the plant lived before the 1986 accident, was evacuated several days after the accident, because of radiological contamination. It was included in the 30 km exclusion zone around the plant and is closed to all but those with authorized access. • Thirty-one people died in the Chernobyl accident and its immediate aftermath, most in fighting the fires that ensued. There have been news reports of additional deaths subsequent to the 31, but details are not available. Delayed health effects could be extensive, but estimates vary. A moving documentary by a doomed cameraman.
“Not If, But When” The Shortfalls of Current Nuclear Terrorism Policy
“The Bush Prevention Doctrine” • “For centuries, international law recognized that nations need not suffer an attack before they can lawfully take action to defend themselves against forces that present an imminent danger of attack. Legal scholars and international jurists often conditioned the legitimacy of preemption on the existence of an imminent threat—most often a visible mobilization of armies, navies, and air forces preparing to attack. We must adapt the concept of imminent threat to the capabilities and objectives of today’s adversaries…. The greater the threat, the greater is the risk of inaction…. To forestall or prevent such hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if necessary, act preemptively.”
“The Bush Prevention Doctrine” • “Proactive counterproliferation efforts. • “Strengthened nonproliferation efforts to prevent rogue states and terrorists from acquiring the materials, technologies, and expertise necessary for weapons of mass destruction. • “Effective consequence management to respond to the effects of WMD use, whether by terrorists or hostile states.” “Our comprehensive strategy to combat WMD includes: White House National Security Council, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, Chapter 5 September 17, 2002 http://www.policyalmanac.org/world/archive/wh_prevention_doctrine.shtml