“Turkey’s Next 40 Years”

1. “Turkey’s Next 40 Years” STRATFOR Turkey 360 Scenarios

2. Overview • Time Frame and Participants • Scenarios • Concept • Backgrounds • Example • Supporting Materials • Location

3. Time Frame and Participants • Time Frame • From 2013-2033, divided into four five-year intervals (2013, 2018, 2023, 2028) • Final Panel to discuss next 40 years • Participants • List of options for each country/representative • Will provide contact information for invitees once they are selected • Separate list for final panel

4. Scenarios-Concept • Turkey 360 • Turkey’s foreign policy is based on the concept of a 360-degree area of interest • These interests encompass all dimensions of national power—economic, political and military • Propose to create three scenarios built around this concept, examining Turkey’s potential options in the next 20 years • Conclude with a round table discussion to examine the outcomes and decisions of previous panels

5. Scenario One: Turkey’s Northwest • Background: The scenario focuses on economics and evolves into the considerations of multinational institutions, political relationships and potentially (if the participants go there) to military issues. • Purpose: To examine regional outcomes if current tendencies in the EU continue. What sorts of relationships will Germany, Russia, Greece and other countries develop and how will Turkey respond? • Suggested Participants: Turkey, Germany, France, Russia, Greece and some of the Balkan countries.

6. Scenario Two: Turkey’s Southeast • Background: The US continues its withdrawal from Iraq. Iran detonates an underground nuclear weapon. The US is considering air strikes but is uncertain they will be successful. Turkey is the only major power with working relations in Teheran and Washington. Turkey also has significant political and economic interests in Iraq and the Arab world. • Purpose: Turkey now finds itself at the center of the first major crisis in which it is a major power able to shape the outcome. How does it manage this? • Suggested Participants: Turkey, Iran, Iraq, United States, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Russia and Germany/EU.

7. Scenario Three: Turkey’s Northeast • Background: Russian pressure on Georgia finally puts a pro-Russian government in place. Turkey now faces a situation in which access to their Azerbaijani energy runs through Russian controlled territory. Alternative sources of energy are years away but a strategy must be devised that (a) guarantees Russian energy supplies in the near term and (b) develops alternative energy supplies in the long run. • Purpose: What are Russia’s intentions? Can Turkey rely on perceived Russian intentions? What alternative sources are there, how quickly can they be bought on line? What partners does Turkey need? • Suggested Participants: Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States and an oil company representative. 

8. Mock Scenario “Turkey’s Northeast in the Next 20 Years” • Participants: United States, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Germany/EU and Turkey • Time frame: 2013-2033, divided into four five-year intervals • Each 5-year section is divided into three rounds • In each round, each participant is likely to make at least one move

9. Mock Scenario-Moves • Four types of moves to choose from:  • Diplomatic: holding meetings, relaying messages, forming/breaking alliances, demarches, UNSC activity, assigning special envoys, etc. • Economic: investment, subsidization, sanctions, sanctions-busting, tariffs, embargo, etc. • Military: military assistance/training, military purchases/sales, movement of carriers, troop deployments, war/air strikes, deploying ground forces, etc. • Covert: financial/military support to proxies, subversion, propaganda, deception campaigns, assassination, etc. ** If a covert move is employed, it will be relayed electronically to the moderator and may be revealed to select participants at the moderator’s time of choosing  • Participants can play all four types in a single turn, do a combination of moves or choose not to exercise a move • Participants can also leave their moves as open-ended strategic gambits – “increasing readiness of Navy” – or specify them as particular tactical moves – “sending USS Enterprise to the Gulf”

10. Mock Scenario SESSION 1: Begins April 2013 Background (Known to all participants before game begins): • United States is a few months into a new presidential term and has completed its withdrawal from Iraq • In Bahrain, a political crisis is intensifying following elections held two months prior in which an umbrella Shiite coalition is accusing the Sunni royal family of massive vote-rigging • Iran has been cracking down on simmering Kurdish unrest in the north and preparations have begun for elections to be held later in the year. • In Iraq, militant activity is on the decline and investors from Europe, the United States, China and Russia are competing for major oil projects in the south. • In the Levant region, Israel has just initiated a military offensive in the Gaza Strip following a barrage of rocket attacks and a major suicide bombing at a Tel Aviv shopping mall.   • Russia has begun to move into the Baltic region via economic and political influence in Estonia and Latvia, pinning Lithuania further into a corner, but is concerned that U.S. disentanglement from the Middle East following the Iraq withdrawal will hamper its plans. • Germany is largely preoccupied with Europe following a default by Greece that is threatening to plunge the European Union into another financial crisis.

11. Mock Scenario ROUND I • [Revealed by moderator at start of session] U.S., European and Russian seismologists have confirmed that Iran has successfully detonated a nuclear device. Israeli and U.S. intelligence estimates indicate that Iran is likely at least two years away from being able to weaponize a device. • All participants in the first round will submit their first move(s) to the moderator simultaneously. Example: • United States • Diplomatic: Calls for immediate reassessment of intelligence on Iranian nuclear development timeline, calls for a crisis meeting of the UNSC, where it reveals (and later leaks to the Washington Post) information on weapons components being shipped to a nuclear facility in northeastern Iran from an unidentified European country. • Military: Sends an addtional carrier group to the Persian Gulf • Economic: Calls for full economic sanctions plus freezing of all assets • MODERATOR - A UNSC meeting is held, and all permanent members vote yes to a diplomatic censure against Iran, demanding that Iran allow in IAEA inspectors and come forward with information regarding its development of a weaponized device. Sanctions are intensified on Iran, but no other punitive actions are specified. • NEW DEVELOPMENT INTRODUCED BY MODERATOR: Sanctions on Iranian gasoline supply at this point are likely to have little impact, as China has completed upgrading Iran’s main refineries, raising gasoline output by 60 percent.

12. Mock Scenario ROUND II • In the second round, each participant takes turns making moves. The moderator chooses order. Example: • United States • Military: Begins a war game with Qatar/UAE/Oman/Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf and asks Turkey for use of Izmir in air strikes. • Diplomatic: (moderator asks the U.S. to respond to the Iranian offer of a new NNPT conference): • Rejects the new NNPT idea, asks the IAEA to go into Iran to verify the status of its reactors • .Rejects Turkish Istanbul Conference • Asks for a contact group of Russia, Turkey, China, Germany, France and UK to meet in Washington to decide on further steps with Iran.   • Covert: US chooses to mount an intel operation in Iran to find out how quickly Iran can weaponize the nuclear device and begins massive funding campaign for internal destabilization via pro-democracy groups, Balochi insurgents, Kurds and Ahvazi Arabs • END OF SESSION 1

13. Mock Scenario • ROUND I of SESSION 2: • MODERATOR: Bahrain devolves into urban insurgency, Saudi Arabia is locked down. • Syria extends peace offering to Israel in exchange for deal on Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, recognition of Syrian influence, deal on Golan Heights. • Kurds declare independence in Northern Iraq as Shiite rebellion takes hold and proclaims southern independent Iraq. • United States • Military: U.S. is building up at Manas air force base with Russian cooperation. Deploys another aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf • Diplomatic/Covert: Offers Turkey a Grand Bargain: It can take out Kurdistan in Iraq and dominate all of Iraq (including energy) if it cooperates in military campaign against Iran.

14. Mock Scenario • ROUND 2 of SESSION 2 • MODERATOR: Tehran withdraws from Iraq and Bahrain, placates Ankara and Saudi Arabia.Tehran launches a long-range missile that flies over Tel Aviv and splashes into the Mediterranean of off Tel Aviv beaches. • U.S. learns that its assessment of Iran’s weaponization program was relying heavily on information from a recently exposed double-agent of the Iranians. Tehran will likely have a nuclear weapons capability by the end of the round. • Moderator offers U.S. choice: You know Iran is close to having bomb, Israel is going to attack Iran because of the rocket test. What do you do? Let Israel attack Iran itself or take part in military campaign to mitigate disruption to Strait of Hormuz

15. Supporting Materials • Technology • Computers/Laptops • Internet Connection • Printers • Power Outlets • Projector and Screen • Paper Materials • Briefing Books • Name/Country Placards