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Developments in Seasonal Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Prediction Phil Klotzbach

Developments in Seasonal Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Prediction Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Ph. D. Defense July 9, 2007. Acknowledgments. Mentor – Dr. Gray Ph. D. Advisor – Dr. Schubert Ph. D. Committee Members – Drs. Mielke and Pielke

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Developments in Seasonal Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Prediction Phil Klotzbach

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  1. Developments in Seasonal Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Prediction Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Ph. D. Defense July 9, 2007

  2. Acknowledgments • Mentor – Dr. Gray • Ph. D. Advisor – Dr. Schubert • Ph. D. Committee Members – Drs. Mielke and Pielke • CSU Student Colleagues – Eric Blake, Matt Eastin, Brian McNoldy, Stacey Seseske, Wes Terwey, Jonathan Vigh • Friends and Family – Especially my parents for providing me with an outstanding home education • National Science Foundation and Lexington Insurance Company

  3. Outline • Introduction • Data • Atlantic Basin Multi-Decadal Variability • Seasonal Forecast Developments • 2007 Hurricane Forecast • United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Webpage • Hurricanes and Global Warming

  4. Introduction The globe’s atmosphere and oceans function as one unit. Current circulation features have considerable precursor information regarding the coming month’s or coming season’s amount of hurricane activity.

  5. OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION LATENT HEAT FLUX SENSIBLE HEAT AND POTENTIAL ENERGY FLUX ABSORBED SOLAR RADIATION NET ENERGY BALANCE SUBSURFACE HEAT STORAGE THERMAL INERTIA OCEAN HEAT FLUX TEMPERATURE Flow diagram for climate modeling, showing feedback loops. From Robock (1985).

  6. Arago’s Admonition: “Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will honest scientific men who have regard for their reputations venture to predict the weather.”

  7. So easy a caveman could do it.

  8. Data • NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis – globally gridded (2.5° x 2.5°) dataset for many surface and upper-level features from 1948-present • National Hurricane Center “best track” dataset – best estimates of six-hourly location and intensity of tropical cyclones

  9. Atlantic Basin Multi-decadal Variability

  10. SURFACE 500 METERS

  11. STRONG THC WARM

  12. H H 3 1 2 Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)

  13. THC - Strong ? 1860 1900 1940 1980 2020 (Goldenberg et al. 2001)

  14. Top 20 AMO Years – Bottom 20 AMO Years (1878-2006) - SLP

  15. AMO Index Major Hurricanes per Year 1.2 2.6 1.5 3.9

  16. SSTA + SSTA - + – – SLPA – + SLPA + gyre - gyre + + – STRONG THC WEAK THC

  17. Seasonal Forecast Developments

  18. 2007 Forecast Schedule

  19. New Forecast Development Methodology • Use predictors using surface data from the two months prior to the forecast issue date • Hindcast Net Tropical Cyclone activity metric only • Develop forecast on data from 1950-1989 • Test forecast on “independent” data from 1990-2004 • New forecast schemes must show comparable skill in both time periods

  20. New December Forecast Predictors Oct-Nov SST 2 1 Oct-Nov SLP 3` EQ. Oct-Nov SLP

  21. Developmental

  22. Applied

  23. New April Forecast Predictors Feb-Mar SST 1 EQ. 2 3` Feb-Mar SLP Feb-Mar SST

  24. Developmental

  25. Applied

  26. New June Forecast Predictors April-May SST 1 Predicted July-Nov AMM Index 3` 2 EQ. April-May SST

  27. Developmental

  28. Applied

  29. New August Seasonal Forecast Predictors Pre 1-August NSD S of 23.5°N, E of 75°W 1 4 2 June – July SST 3 EQ. June – July SLP June – July SST

  30. August Statistical Scheme – Hindcast Skill for NTC (1900-1948) Observations Hindcasts

  31. August Statistical Scheme – Hindcast Skill for NTC (1949-2005) Observations Hindcasts

  32. Top 10 – Bottom 10 Atlantic Basin TC Ratios for 1900-1948 Period Using Forecast Equations Developed on 1949-1989

  33. 16 Landfalls 3 Landfalls

  34. Top 10 versus Bottom 10 Florida Peninsula and East Coast Major Hurricane Landfalls based on NTC Hindcasts (1949-2005)

  35. Skill of Seasonal Forecasts

  36. Correlation of CSU Forecasts of NTC with Observations

  37. Skill of Cane and Zebiak Forecast Model for Nino 3 SST

  38. 2007 Hurricane Predictions

  39. 2007 FORECAST AS OF 31 MAY 2007

  40. PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS FOR 2007 • Entire U.S. coastline – 74% (average for last century is 52%) • 2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida - 50% (average for last century is 31%) • 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 49% (average for last century is 30%) • 4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

  41. New Landfalling Hurricane Web Application Currently Available at the following URL: http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory – Bridgewater State College, Bridgewater MA

  42. Areas for which Landfall Probabilities are Issued

  43. REGION 2 - TEXAS & LOUISIANA H A J L C O J C V C (b) (c) (a)

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