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Reasons for the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Phil Klotzbach and William Gray Department o

Reasons for the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Phil Klotzbach and William Gray Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Climate Diagnostics Workshop October 25, 2005. Outline. 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Summary Activity-Enhancing Features

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Reasons for the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Phil Klotzbach and William Gray Department o

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  1. Reasons for the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Phil Klotzbach and William Gray Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Climate Diagnostics Workshop October 25, 2005

  2. Outline • 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Summary • Activity-Enhancing Features • Westward Track-Enhancing Features • Conclusions

  3. Outline • 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Summary • Activity-Enhancing Features • Westward Track-Enhancing Features • Conclusions

  4. 2004 ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY

  5. 2005 Season

  6. 2004 Storm Tracks Figure taken from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2004atl.gif

  7. 2005 Storm Tracks Figure taken from http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2005.asp

  8. 9 Landfalls

  9. 2004 United States Hurricane Landfalls

  10. Outline • 2004 Atlantic Basin Statistics • Activity-Enhancing Features • Westward Track-Enhancing Features • Conclusions

  11. August-September 2004 SST Anomalies

  12. ? 1860 1900 1940 1980 2020 Adapted from Goldenberg et al. 2001

  13. August-September 2004 850 MB U Anomaly

  14. August-September 2004 V Anomalies Anomalous Northerlies 200 mb Anomalous Southerlies 850 mb

  15. August-September 2004 OLR Anomaly

  16. Genesis Parameter (GP) Definition GP = ΔV + U850mb + SSTA Where: ΔV = 850 mb – 200 mb average August-September V wind component from (7.5°N – 7.5°S, 20°-45°W) U850mb = 850 mb average August-September U wind component from (5°-15°N, 20°-60°W) SSTA = Average August-September sea surface temperature anomaly from (5°-15°N, 20°-60°W)

  17. Genesis Parameter (GP) Component Locations SSTA + U 1.5 km V 12 km 1.5 km

  18. Genesis Parameter Values (in Standard Deviations)

  19. Atlantic Basin Genesis Parameter Ratios

  20. August-September SST (1995-2004) – (1950-1969)

  21. August-September 200 mb U (1995-2004) – (1950-1969)

  22. Upper-Level Wind Parameter (UP) Definition UP = -ZWA Where: ZWA = 200 mb average August-September U wind component from (5°-15°N, 20°-60°W)

  23. Upper-Level Wind Parameter (UP) Location - ZWA 12 km

  24. Upper-Level Wind Parameter Values (in Standard Deviations)

  25. Outline • 2004 Atlantic Basin Statistics • Activity-Enhancing Features • Westward Track-Enhancing Features • Conclusions

  26. FRAN OPAL BRET 1995-2003 Intense Hurricane Tracks (32 tracks)

  27. August-September 500 mb Ht. (2004) – (1995-2003)

  28. August-September 500 mb Ht. (2004) – (1995-2003)

  29. Westward Track Parameter (WP) Definition WP = Zone 1 – Zone 2 – Zone 3 Where: Zone 1 = 500 mb average August-September 500 mb height from (40°-50°N, 65°-75°W) Zone 2 = 500 mb average August-September 500 mb height from (50°-60°N, 20°-30°W) Zone 3 = 500 mb average August-September 500 mb height from (40°-50°N, 100°-110°W)

  30. L L H

  31. United States Tropical Cyclone Landfall Parameter (LP) Definition LP = GP + UP + WP Where: GP = Genesis Parameter UP = Upper-Level Wind Parameter WP = Westward Track Parameter

  32. United States Landfall Parameter (LP) Values (in Standard Deviations)

  33. United States Landfall Parameter Ratios

  34. Outline • 2004 Atlantic Basin Statistics • Activity-Enhancing Features • Westward Track-Enhancing Features • Conclusions

  35. Conclusions • The 2004 hurricane season was very active both in terms of overall tropical cyclone activity and in terms of United States landfalls • A strong Intertropical Convergence Zone, weaker trade winds, and warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures contributed to the very active season • A mid-level ridge predominated over the East Coast of the United States with mid-level troughs to the west and east which helped push storms westward into the longitudes of the United States

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