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North Atlantic Ocean Multi-Decadal Variability Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science

North Atlantic Ocean Multi-Decadal Variability Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October 23, 2007. Outline. Potential driver – Atlantic thermohaline circulation Effects on Atlantic basin hurricanes

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North Atlantic Ocean Multi-Decadal Variability Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science

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  1. North Atlantic Ocean Multi-Decadal Variability Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October 23, 2007

  2. Outline • Potential driver – Atlantic thermohaline circulation • Effects on Atlantic basin hurricanes • Effects on United States hurricane landfalls • Conclusions

  3. 160oW 20oE

  4. SURFACE 500 METERS

  5. Salt Water Density Fresh Water Density

  6. H H 3 1 2 Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)

  7. NADW Tropics THC - Strong THC - Strong 20 Sr 20 Sr Negative buoyancy Positive buoyancy NADW THC - Weak THC - Weak 10 Sr 10 Sr Positive buoyancy Negative buoyancy

  8. STRONG THC WARM

  9. SSTA + SSTA - + – – SLPA – + SLPA + gyre - gyre + + – STRONG THC WEAK THC

  10. THC Index (SST – SLP)

  11. Top 20 THC Years – Bottom 20 THC Years (1878-2006) - SST

  12. Top 20 THC Years – Bottom 20 THC Years (1878-2006) - SLP

  13. FAST SLOW FAST SLOW Thermohaline Circulation Rate of Salt Buildup from (E-P) - River = 0 Salt Anomaly (S1) (S1) (S1) YEARS 30 60 90 120

  14. Top 20 – Bottom 20 THC Ratios

  15. THC STRONG CAT 3-4-5 TRACKS THC WEAK CAT 3-4-5 TRACKS

  16. 1950-1964 1997-2006 25 YEARS13 Major Hurricanes 1970-1994 25 YEARS3 Major Hurricanes 54 55 THC STRONG THC WEAK 85 54 55 54 60 89 59 04 50 92 05 04 50 60

  17. FLORIDA LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANES 1 3 11

  18. Conclusions • Multi-decadal variability in Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures exists and is likely driven by changes in strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation • Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity (and especially major hurricane activity) is much more frequent during strong THC years • Florida peninsula and East Coast landfalls are dramatically altered by THC phase changes

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