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2008 Hurricane Season Forecast Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Florida Govern

2008 Hurricane Season Forecast Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference May 14, 2008 2008 FORECAST AS OF 9 APRIL 2008 New April Forecast Predictors Feb-Mar SST 1` March SLP 2` EQ. 1` ` Feb-Mar SST

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2008 Hurricane Season Forecast Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Florida Govern

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  1. 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference May 14, 2008

  2. 2008 FORECAST AS OF 9 APRIL 2008

  3. New April Forecast Predictors Feb-Mar SST 1` March SLP 2` EQ. 1` ` Feb-Mar SST

  4. BEST ANALOG YEARS FOR 2008 (APRIL FORECAST)

  5. 2008 Forecast Schedule

  6. PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS FOR 2008 • Entire U.S. coastline – 69% (average for last century is 52%) • 2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida - 45%(average for last century is 31%) • 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%) • 4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

  7. New Landfalling Hurricane Web Application Currently Available at the following URL: http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory – Bridgewater State College, Bridgewater MA

  8. REGION 2 - TEXAS & LOUISIANA H A J L C O J C V C (b) (c) (a)

  9. Future Work • Gust Probabilities • User-Selected Probabilities (Daily, Weekly Periods)

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