1. 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference May 14, 2008

2. 2008 FORECAST AS OF 9 APRIL 2008

3. New April Forecast Predictors Feb-Mar SST 1` March SLP 2` EQ. 1` ` Feb-Mar SST

6. BEST ANALOG YEARS FOR 2008 (APRIL FORECAST)

8. 2008 Forecast Schedule

9. PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS FOR 2008 • Entire U.S. coastline – 69% (average for last century is 52%) • 2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida - 45%(average for last century is 31%) • 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%) • 4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

10. New Landfalling Hurricane Web Application Currently Available at the following URL: http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory – Bridgewater State College, Bridgewater MA

12. REGION 2 - TEXAS & LOUISIANA H A J L C O J C V C (b) (c) (a)

15. Future Work • Gust Probabilities • User-Selected Probabilities (Daily, Weekly Periods)