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March 11, 2019 | Westborough, MA

March 11, 2019 | Westborough, MA. Norman Sproehnle. (413) 540-4755 | NSPROEHNLE@iso-ne.com. Forward Capacity Auction 14 (FCA 14): Fuel Security Review of Retirement De-List Bids. Review of Planning Procedure 10, Appendix I Update of the Modeled Inputs. Revision 2.

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March 11, 2019 | Westborough, MA

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  1. March 11, 2019 | Westborough, MA Norman Sproehnle (413) 540-4755 | NSPROEHNLE@iso-ne.com Forward Capacity Auction 14 (FCA 14): Fuel Security Review of Retirement De-List Bids Review of Planning Procedure 10, Appendix I Update of the Modeled Inputs Revision 2

  2. While the region’s resource mix is shifting, its fuel security risks are sensitive to the retirement of resources from the system • To address near-term operational fuel security risks, the ISO developed and FERC accepted a fuel security reliability review for the Forward Capacity Market • This review is performed in accordance with Tariff, Section III.13.2.5.2.5A and Appendix I of Planning Procedure No. 10 (PP10-I)

  3. PP10-I establishes the process and criteria for evaluating the reliability impacts of FCM Retirement De-List Bids, substitution auction demand bids, bilateral transactions and reconfiguration auction demand bids • At today’s meeting, the ISO will review PP10-Istatic inputs and variable inputs in accordance with PP10-I, Section 2.1

  4. Discussion OF fuel security reliability review Static INPUTS TO FCA 14

  5. Comparison of Static Inputs from FCA 13 to FCA 14 Revision 2 • Below is a summary of some of the changes to the static inputs from FCA 13 to FCA 14, further details on these changes are discussed in the upcoming slides

  6. Winter 2023/2024 Peak Load and Energy Profile • As described in PP10-I, Sections A.i and ii: • The hourly demand levels from winter 2014/2015 will be adjusted* to reflect the winter 2023/2024 2018 CELT 90/10 net load forecast of 20,205 MW** (net of the effects of energy efficiency) • As described in PP10-I, Section 2.3.1: • An informational review will be performed using a 50/50 CELT peak load forecast of 19,505 MW** for winter 2023/2024 • This analysis will not be used for unit retention determinations *The forecast ratio used to create the energy profile load shape was0.982 **The 50/50 and 90/10 load value will be updated once preliminary load delivered to PAC

  7. Local Distribution Company (LDC) Gas Demand Revision 2 • As described in PP10-I, Section A.iii: • Set for modeled Capacity Commitment Period with future year total forecasted LDC gas demand held constant from last known Integrated Resource plan based on vendor-supplied information • For FCA 14, LDC peak gas demand will be 5.181 Bcf/d, which is the amount forecasted in an update from ICF • For FCA 13, LDC peak gas demand was modeled at 5.262 Bcf/d

  8. Gas Source Capacity from Pipelines Revision 2 • Per PP10-I, Section A.iv: • The pipeline capacity is set for the modeled Capacity Commitment Period based on vendor-supplied information annually • Iroquois pipeline has contract entitlements moving gas through Algonquin to Long Island, NY of 0.33 Bcf/d • This ‘pass through’ out of New England will lower the overall gas total to the region to 3.55 Bcf/d

  9. Additional Information on Pipeline Pass Through • There are firm contracts with a receipt point of Brookfield (AGT to IGT interconnect) and associated delivery points on Long Island / New York City • The ISO has observed flows to Long Island over the past two winters from the Algonquin pipeline • Upon further scrutiny and recent verification from ICF, the ISO has confirmed that these ‘pass-through’ contracts should be netted from supply to New England • In fact, these firm contracts have been in place since the 2008 Brookfield interconnection project was brought into service

  10. Satellite LNG Injection • As described in PP10-I, Section A.v: • Set for the modeled year based on vendor-supplied information annually • For FCA 14, satellite LNG injections will commence when the HDD is greater than 33, which equates to an average daily temperature of 32°F or lower • For FCA 13, satellite LNG injections commenced when the HDD was greater than 53, which equated to an average daily temperature of 12°F or lower • The maximum sendout capability will continue to be 1.456 Bcf/d

  11. Oil Unit Inventory and Replenishment Levels • As described in PP10-I, Section A.vi: • Inventory levels will be set based upon the December 2018 fuel surveys submitted to the ISO • Tank inventories will continue to be replenished with one proxy tanker truck per hour when the reorder level, provided in the December 2018 fuel survey, is reached • FCA 14 oil units inventories will be updated to 51.1% as compared to the FCA 13 use of 69.6%

  12. Resource Seasonal Claimed Capability • As described in PP10-I, Section A.vii: • For Existing Generating Capacity Resources qualified for FCA 14 and energy-only generators active in the ISO-NE markets, the winter SCC from the May 2018 CELT Report will be used • For non-commercial Existing Generating Capacity Resources that are not in the 2018 CELT report, the resource’s FCA 14 winter Qualified Capacity will be used

  13. PV Forecast and Profile • Consistent with PP10-I, Section A.viii: • The PV forecast-nameplate is 4,731.4 MW as calculated from the information in the May 2018 CELT Report (sum of the Markets Total Cumulative and the Behind-The-Meter Total Cumulative values) • The ISO has received notification of contractual commitments for 268.9MW nameplate PV to be added pursuant to Section 4.1(f) of Attachment K to Part II of the Tariff • Additional details on the certification of contractual commitment are discussed on later slides • The total PV nameplate to be utilized will be 5,000.3 MW

  14. PV Forecast and Profile, cont. • Consistent with PP10-I, Section A.viii: • The hourly profile will be adjusted to the observed hourly profile from the 2014/2015 winter to reflect the expected performance of PV fleet for the 2023/2024 winter

  15. Onshore Wind Nameplate and Profiles • Consistent with PP10-I, Section A.ix: • The onshore wind resource nameplate is 1,317.49 MW as calculated from the information in the May 2018 CELT Report • The ISO has received notification of contractual commitments for 26.33 MW nameplate onshore wind to be added pursuant to Section 4.1(f) of Attachment K to Part II of the Tariff • Additional details on the certifications of contractual commitment are discussed on later slides • Antrim Wind qualified for FCA 13 and acquired 9.9 MW of winter capacity supply obligation which equate to 28 MW nameplate

  16. Onshore Wind Nameplate and Profiles, cont. • Consistent with PP10-I, Section A.xi: • Observed onshore wind data from the winter of 2014/2015 will be adjusted by 4% to reflect the expected performance of the new resources added to the fleet since the winter 2014/2015

  17. Offshore Wind Nameplate and Profiles • Consistent with PP10-I, Section A.ix: • The offshore wind resource nameplate is 29.25 MW as calculated from the information in the May 2018 CELT Report • The ISO has received no notification of contractual commitments from offshore wind resources that would need to be added pursuant to Section 4.1(f) of Attachment K to Part II of the Tariff • Vineyard Wind qualified for FCA 13 and acquired 82.383 MW of winter capacity supply obligation which equate to 168 MW nameplate

  18. Offshore Wind Nameplate and Profiles, cont. • Consistent with PP10-I, Section A.xii: • The hourly profile will be the expected performance of the offshore wind fleet assumed in service in the 2022/2023 winter as though it had been in operation in the 2014/2015 winter

  19. Demand Response Resources • Consistent with PP10-I, Section 3.A.xiii: • The winter Seasonal Claimed Capability (MW) reduction value from active Demand Response Resources will be 321 MW for this analysis* * https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2019/02/scc_february_2019.xls

  20. Equivalent Forced Outage Rate Demand (EFORd) • As described in PP10-I, Section A.xiv: • The ISO will use the calculated EFORd utilizing its Generating Availability Data System (GADS) data* • Overall, the EFORd from the various technology groups have slightly decreased * https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/genrtion_resrcs/gads/class_ave_2010.pdf

  21. Operating Procedure-4 (OP-4) Action MW • As described in PP10-I, Section 3.A.xv: • Once dispatch requirements are met (energy and reserves) no additional resources are dispatched • If energy and reserves are not met, OP-4 Action During a Capacity Deficiency actions are applied to relieve system stress • There are no changes from FCA 13 to FCA 14 on the estimated hourly MW relief *Values will be set based on available resources

  22. Pumped and Battery Storage • Consistent with PP10-I, Section 3.A.xvii: • The amount of generation from the pumped storage facilities (Bear Swamp, Rocky River, and Northfield Mountain) will be 1,785 MW • In the FCA 13 analysis, Rocky River was not included as a pumped storage resource in the assessment • There was no change in the amount of generation available from battery storage facilities from what was accounted for in the FCA 13 analysis

  23. Pumped and Battery Storage, cont. • Consistent with PP10-I, Section 3.A.xvii: • Storage resources will beset to levels using a daily profile to reflect characteristic operation of these resources to store energy during low load periods and generate electricity during the higher load periods

  24. Conventional Hydro-electric Generation • As described in PP10-I, Section 3.A.xviii: • The conventional hydro-electric resources will be dispatched at an hourly output based on the weighted average hydro Capacity Factor calculated using the latest 5-year NERC EFORd Capacity Factor Class Averages for HYDRO 1-29 and HYDRO 30 Plus • From the 2018 CELT, the winter SCC for the hydro-electric resources was 1,586.2MW • The weighted average hydro Capacity Factor was calculated to be 40.6% • The hourly dispatch value will be 1,586.2 * 0.406 = 644 MW

  25. Certifications of Contractual Commitment • As described in PP10-I, Section 3.C: • The submissions of certification of contractual commitments from resources being built in accordance with Attachment K to Part II of the Tariff will be accounted for in the assessment • PV: 268.9 MW (nameplate) • Onshore Wind: 26.33 MW (nameplate) • There were no Attachment K resources for FCA 13

  26. Discussion OF fuel security reliability review variable INPUTS TO FCA 14

  27. Imports, LNG Injections, and Combined Cycle Dual-Fuel Resource Tank Inventory • As described in PP10-I, Section B, several inputs will be varied by specific amounts to reflect system sensitivities to create the set of scenarios • Imports • The total net flow into New England across the New York – New England (NY-NE), New Brunswick – New England (NB-NE), and Hydro-Quebec – New England (HQ-NE) Interfaces will continue to be set at 2,800 MW, 3,000 MW, and 3,500 MW and tested as separate scenarios • LNG Injections • The total LNG injected into the pipeline transmission system by the region’s three available LNG facilities (Canaport, Distrigas, and Excelerate) will continue to be set at 0.8 Bcf/d, 1.0 Bcf/d, and 1.2/d Bcf and tested as separate scenarios • Combined Cycle Dual-Fuel resource tank inventory • This is a multiplier for the onsite fuel-storage tank of the individual resource and will continue to be set at 1.25 and 2.0 and tested as separate scenarios

  28. Imports • Imports • The total net flow into New England for the 2018/2019 winter has been in alignment with previous winters • The import values of 2,800 MW, 3,000 MW, and 3,500 MW will continue to be used for FCA 14

  29. LNG Injections • LNG Injections • The region observed two LNG tankers moored to the Excelerate buoys simultaneously • These two LNG tankers scheduled an approximate total of 5.23 Bcf into the pipelines • The 2018/2019 winter did not contain any significant duration of cold weather • The cold conditions manifested on three days with ample time for the system to recover • The insignificant cold durations for the 2018/2019 winter did not warrant a change to the previous LNG injection values • The injection values of 0.8 Bcf/d, 1.0 Bcf/d, and 1.2 Bcf/d will continue to be utilized for FCA 14

  30. Combined Cycle Dual-Fuel Resource Tank Inventory • Dual-Fuel resource tank inventory • The ISO observed 13 million gallons of replenishment for the 2018/2019 winter • This amount of replenishment equates to 5.28% of the total maximum inventory of 252 million gallons • The resource replenishment habits of market participants observed by ISO operations for the 2018/2019 winter do not warrant a change to the previous multiplier values • The multiplier values for onsite fuel-storage of 1.25 and 2.0 will continue to be used for FCA 14

  31. Discussion OF potentially Significant future system changes in New York

  32. Future System Changes in New York • By the first quarter of 2020, the Cricket Valley Energy Center 1,100 MW gas-fired combined-cycle power plant will connect to the Iroquois pipeline near the Dover compressor station and may have an impact on the amount of natural gas which could come to New England • Also, the Indian Point nuclear station in Buchanan, NY will be retiring by the year 2021 and the 2,060 MW generated at this facility may have a significant impact on imports • The impact of these changes will not be assessed in this analysis

  33. Conclusion • To address near-term operational fuel security risks, the ISO developed PP10, Appendix I – Fuel Security Reliability Review for Forward Capacity Market • The ISO discussed PP10-I static inputs and variable inputs that will be used in the FCA 14 fuel security reliability review • The FCA 14 fuel security reliability review of Retirement De-List Bids results will be reviewed with the Reliability Committee in the same timeframe that resources retained for transmission security are reviewed

  34. Norman Sproehnle (413) 540-4755 | NSPROEHNLE@iso-ne.com

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