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U.S. Politics

U.S. Politics. Public Opinion and Socialization. Overview. Public Opinion: Definition Measuring Public Opinion Survey Design Scientific vs. “Unscientific” polls Variables to be measured Factors Shaping Public Opinion Importance of Public Opinion. Definition. Polling and Politics

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U.S. Politics

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  1. U.S. Politics Public Opinion and Socialization

  2. Overview • Public Opinion: Definition • Measuring Public Opinion • Survey Design • Scientific vs. “Unscientific” polls • Variables to be measured • Factors Shaping Public Opinion • Importance of Public Opinion

  3. Definition Polling and Politics Iraq War Economic Stimulus Package

  4. Definition • Public Opinion: Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population

  5. Measuring Public Opinion • Need to add and combine these individual opinions so that we can then determine what the public as a whole believes • Collect data in a scientifically rigorous fashion

  6. Survey Design • Identify target population • Select Random Sample • Write Questions • Conduct Poll • Analyze Data

  7. Survey Design • Identify target population • Who’s opinion are you interested in measuring? • Select Random Sample • Write Questions • Conduct Poll • Analyze Data

  8. Survey Design • Identify target population • Select Random Sample • every person in the target population has an equal and known probability of being included in the survey • Write Questions • Conduct Poll • Analyze Data

  9. Survey Design • Identify target population • Select Random Sample • Write Questions • ensure that questions are fair, non-leading, and clear • Conduct Poll • Analyze Data

  10. Survey Design • Identify target population • Select Random Sample • Write Questions • Conduct Poll • contact those selected in the random sample • Analyze Data

  11. Survey Design • Identify target population • Select Random Sample • Write Questions • Conduct Poll • Analyze Data • Intepret what the numbers mean

  12. Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls • Key is in the random sample • “random”: every person in the target population has an equal and known probability of being included in the survey • Allows us to calculate the margin of error and the confidence interval

  13. Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls • Margin of Error: How much the sample reports differ from the total population +/- 3.5% to about +/- 6% 45% with a 4% margin of error 45% 49% 41%

  14. Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls • Confidence Interval: How sure we are in the results .01 to .05

  15. Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls • Need to be able to determine how much your sample differs from the total population, and how sure you are in the results • If no random sample, no way to determine that

  16. Variables to Measure • Intensity • Salience • Consensus • Divisiveness • Change StronglyAgree Agree Disagree StronglyDisagree

  17. Variables to Measure • Intensity • Salience • Consensus • Divisiveness • Change Don’t Know Yes No

  18. Variables to Measure • Intensity • Salience • Consensus • Divisiveness • Change Disagree Agree

  19. Variables to Measure • Intensity • Salience • Consensus • Divisiveness • Change Yes No

  20. Variables to Measure • Intensity • Salience • Consensus • Divisiveness • Change % agreeing t1 t2 t3 t4 t5

  21. Education Media Family Race Political Party Income Religion Current Events Gender Geography Factors Shaping Public Opinion

  22. Importance of Public Opinion • Connection to Democracy • Shaping Public Policy • Informing political leaders • Controllinig political leaders

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