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Travel Model One : Update and In-Progress Validation Results

Travel Model One : Update and In-Progress Validation Results. David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission December 13, 2010 Presentation for Four Agency Modeling Group. Outline Schedule. Model overview. Roadway validation. Transit validation. Questions.

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Travel Model One : Update and In-Progress Validation Results

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  1. Travel Model One: Update and In-Progress Validation Results David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission December 13, 2010 Presentation for Four Agency Modeling Group

  2. Outline • Schedule. • Model overview. • Roadway validation. • Transit validation. • Questions.

  3. Development and Application Schedule

  4. Google SF CBD Zone X Not work Work School 1Tour 1 Tour Not school Two cars Work and school locations selected Worker or student status (from census) Daily activity patterns chosen jointly Mandatory tours generated Household auto ownership level chosen

  5. 2 Joint Tours Zoo, Market 8 to 11; 3 to 4 7 to 7 8 to 4 1 At-work Tour McDonald’s 12 to 1 5 to 6 1 Non-mandatory Tour Jimmy’s House 2 Joint Tours 8 to 11, 3 to 4 Zoo, Market Mandatory tours are scheduled Non-mandatory travel is generated Destinations for non-mandatory tours are selected Non-mandatory tours are scheduled

  6. Drive to zoo; walk to market No stops Shared ride 2; Walk Drive; Drive; Drive Drive to work; drive to lunch Starbucks near home Transit to school; bike to Jimmy’s No stops Transit; Bicycle Shared ride 2; Walk Ride to zoo; walk to market No stops Mode choice for all tours Stop frequency; stop location; stop time Trip mode choice; parking location choice

  7. Roadway validation • Counts. Previous validation efforts did not locate a large number of counts on the highway network, instead focusing on bridges and screen lines. We spent a good deal of time locating Caltrans counts on our highway network, leaving no time for locating county-provided arterial counts. • Time-of-day. Previous validation efforts focused on daily and AM peak period estimates. We are now focusing on five time periods, as follows: early AM, 3 am to 6 am; AM peak, 6 am to 10 am; midday, 10 am to 3 pm; PM peak, 3 pm to 7 pm; and, evening, 7 pm to 3 am. • Speed. Previous validation efforts compared AM speeds to a few dozen observed speeds from floating car runs. We now have a full database of speeds from 511 for year 2005; we’ll focus 2005 validation effort on speeds.

  8. Roadway validation • Aggregate time-of-day results.

  9. Roadway validation • Specific (heavily-utilized) locations. Please note the observed data is presented as a range, the width of which is determined by the sample size and standard deviation of the observed data (i.e. to give the reader a sense of the observed data quality) and is not intended to imply a reasonable range for the model results.

  10. Transit validation

  11. Questions?

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