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2007 AFLA Conference

2007 AFLA Conference. Tom Webb www.manheimconsulting.com. Top five factors influencing acquisitions:. Need to keep fuel costs within budgetary constraints Corporate initiatives to reduce “carbon footprint” Right-sizing cargo-carrying vehicles and SUVs to improve fuel efficiency

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2007 AFLA Conference

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  1. 2007 AFLA Conference Tom Webb www.manheimconsulting.com

  2. Top five factors influencing acquisitions: • Need to keep fuel costs within budgetary constraints • Corporate initiatives to reduce “carbon footprint” • Right-sizing cargo-carrying vehicles and SUVs to improve fuel efficiency • Finding “van” replacements as manufacturers change or eliminate their product offerings • Anticipating / maximizing manufacturer incentive monies Source: Survey conducted by Automotive Fleet and published in June, 2007 issue

  3. 50 Years of Fleet Operating Costs Source: PHH Arval, as reprinted in Automotive Fleet * includes accident expense net of accident recoveries

  4. Topic Outline • Current wholesale pricing environment • Overall market • End-of-service fleet units • Drivers of those changes • “Making the best of the hand your dealt”

  5. A single measure of used vehicle price change that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold Concept: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index • All Manheim U.S. sales (5+ million annually) • Classify by market segment • Account for shifts in mileage • Weight to provide unchanging mix • Seasonally adjust STEPS:

  6. Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index - January 1995 = 100 Source: Manheim Consulting

  7. Average Auction Price - Commercial Fleet Units Source: Manheim Consulting

  8. Average Mileage - Commercial Fleet Units Source: Manheim Consulting

  9. Average Auction Price - Mid-size Fleet Car Source: Manheim Consulting

  10. Full-size Pickups – Average Auction Price Source: Manheim Consulting

  11. Auction Volume and Price Change by Vehicle Age July 2007 versus July 2006 Source: Manheim Consulting

  12. What Drives Used Vehicle Prices? • Demand • Overall economy • Labor market & credit conditions • Tax policy, home refi’s, wealth effect • Price of competing goods – new vehicles • Past prices • Current incentives • Supply • Off-lease volumes • Off-rental volumes • Overall level • Match with demand

  13. Percent of Total Auction Volume by Price Tier Source: Manheim Consulting

  14. Number of Unique Buyers by Price Tier Each year Manheim has approximately 100,000 unique buyers. The number of unique buyers within each price tier is evenly distributed even when the supply of vehicles is not. Source: Manheim Consulting

  15. New Vehicles Sold into Non-Rental Fleet -0.9% Source: Bobit Business Media

  16. Average Auction Price - Subprime Repossessions Source: Manheim Consulting

  17. Monthly Job Growth nonfarm payrolls (establishment survey) - in thousands Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  18. Initial Jobless Claims – 4-week moving average 8/11/07 312,500 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  19. Retail Sales Remain Strong –Annual growth rate Source: U.S. Bureau of Census

  20. Interest Rates Source: Federal Reserve Board

  21. Interest Rate Yield Curve Spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries Source: Federal Reserve Board

  22. Treasury Yields Plummet During Week of Turbulence Three-Month Treasury Bill - Daily Yield Source: Federal Reserve Board

  23. Change in New Unit Sales vs. Change in GDP – 1960-2006 1984 New unit sales Real GDP 1982 1966 Source: Automotive News & Dept. of Commerce

  24. New Car & Light Duty Truck Sales millions of units Source: Automotive News

  25. New Vehicle Sales & New Home Sales Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Automotive News

  26. Housing Starts Fall to Decade Low New Single Family Starts 3-month moving average – millions of units Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  27. Subprime Auto Lending • Hard to over-emphasize importance • $100 billion in annual originations. • More than 40% of all used vehicle financing is subprime. • Industry currently in “sweet spot” • Originations growing, defaults declining, recovery rates rising, credit ratings upgraded. • Fragmented, but consolidating industry. • Cautions • Borrowers are highly leveraged and sensitive to gas prices. • Growth in subprime mortgages adds a new wrinkle. • Industry is prone to cycles.

  28. Why Subprime Auto Loans Do Not Equal Subprime Mortgage Loans • Better loans • Fixed rates versus adjustable • Experience with previous cycles • Mortgage broker / lender relationship versus F&I manager / lender relationship • Collateral expectations and results

  29. Gasoline Prices Decline From May Peak Unleaded Gasoline – Cost per Gallon – National Average Source: Oil Price Information Service

  30. Prius prices

  31. Price premium for diesels

  32. Conclusions • Slower growth, but growth • Many conflicting forces impacting different demographic groups differently • Further separation between good and great dealers • The tailwinds that have pushed wholesale used vehicle prices upward will ease slightly.

  33. Summary and Review of Economic and Industry Events That Will Influence Used Vehicle Values • Housing Market -- the drag continues. • Subprime Lending -- the differences between mortgages and auto loans. • Gasoline Prices -- world demand continues to grow. • UAW Negotiations -- concessions for sure, but how willingly given? • U.S. Economic Recovery -- solid fundamentals, but slower growth ahead. • Retail Used Vehicle Market -- profitable, but higher acquisition costs increasingly difficult to pass on.

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