Session IV: Making Data Informed Decisions (Ramblings from the Right Coast)

1. Session IV: Making Data Informed Decisions(Ramblings from the Right Coast) Larry Brown, MSW PA Roundtable - Pittsburgh November 21, 2009

2. “Stock and Flow” Model Courtesy of Chapin Hall Center for Children, University of Chicago

3. Unintended Consequences(Imaginable Effects?) Reduced Entries • Other Potential Effects: • Re-occurrence of abuse or neglect (are children being SAFELY diverted?) • Keep an eye on the back end. Do discharges slow (LOS goes up) while you’re paying attention elsewhere? Front End Strategies

4. Unintended Effects More Exits to Permanency • Other Potential Effects: • Look for re-entry issues (Are children leaving with adequate supports?) • Keep an eye on the front end. Back End Strategies

5. Unintended Effects Less restrictive placements • Other Considerations: • Monitor and plan for what happens in your provider community. It may not be your lowest quality providers who go out of business. • Placement stability. Congregate Care Reduction

6. Unintended Effects Fewer of subpopulation in care Other Considerations: • Monitor the other parts of the system. As you move members of the sub-population, do kids from other strata move in to backfill? (e.g., if you move kids out of congregate care, do intake criteria change to fill beds? Solution? Close beds.) • Case mix will also change. Affects system dynamics (e.g., reducing “easy” entrants may increase average LOS) Targeting Subpopulations

7. Use Data That Meet YOUR Focus and Need • Use existing reports, but know their limits/blind spots • Supplement where needed • It’s not always about quantity…

8. Three Helpful Ways to Compare Rates and Percents - do the work for your users Comparisons to Peers - motivational and political, but least useful; diagnostic Comparisons to Self Over Time - most valuable, IF the measure is useful

9. When Building Reports:Do the work for the user Source: PA Data Update, NGA, June, 2009

10. Other Things to Think About Seasonality.Many jurisdictions are tracking changes in population month-to-month, but many systems experience seasonality in their system. Monitoring.Strengths-based monitoring relies on leaving a little room for qualitative explanations. Investment Strategies. States should consider how their strategies work in terms of a return on investment. Integrated Work. The strongest, longest-lasting strategy is one that is consistent with the agency’s practice model.

11. How to Proceed? ID targets Decide appropriate measures Watch for unintended, but imaginable, consequences Measure systematically; predict where you want to be Report routinely and transparently

12. Team Time