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Radiative forcing since 1750

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Evaluation of the radiative forcing of climate change factors and its effects to the climate system Teruyuki NAKAJIMA Center for Climate System Research, The University of Tokyo 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8568, Japan e-mail: teruyuki@ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp.

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Radiative forcing since 1750

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  1. Evaluation of the radiative forcing of climate change factors and its effects to the climate system Teruyuki NAKAJIMA Center for Climate System Research, The University of Tokyo 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8568, Japan e-mail: teruyuki@ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp Radiative forcing since 1750 • Next IPCC should address • Surface aerosol forcing in future • Cloud and aerosol formation simulation by high resolution modeling • More satellite and surface radiation data, especially those of CLOUDSAT & CALIPSO BOA TOA (Tropopause) LGHG +0.43 LGHG +2.63 +0.02 Stratospheric O3 & H2O (-0.13, TAR) +0.16 +0.21 MIROC +0.35 Tropospheric O3 -1.6 -0.5 Aerosol direct -0.5 -0.7 Albedo effect (0 to -2 only range, TAR) -0.1 Surface albedo (-0.2, TAR) cloud +0.12 Sun (+0.3, TAR) aerosol -0.5 to 1 Cloud forcing due to 2xCO2 (-1 to 0.5, TAR) MJO Simulation by NICAM 3.5km model (B) vs (A) MTSAT-1R satellite OLR (31 Dec 2006) (Miura et al., 2007) CALIPSO lidar detection of aerosols above clouds (NASA-CALIPSO team) TOA: Values from IPCC/AR4 BOA: Values from MIROC-GCM (Takemura et al., 2005)

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