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The_Hybrid_Age_A_New_Socio-Technical_Nexus

A Research and Advisory Group Focused on Human-Technology Co-Evolution and Its Implications for Global Business, Society and Politics

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The_Hybrid_Age_A_New_Socio-Technical_Nexus

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  1. HYBRID REALITY AYESHA and PARAG KHANNA

  2. Socio-technicalEras Disruption Scenarios Cities

  3. Socio-Technical Eras

  4. Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age

  5. Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age Agrarian Age

  6. Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age Agrarian Age IndustrialAge

  7. Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age Agrarian Age IndustrialAge InformationAge

  8. Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age Agrarian Age IndustrialAge InformationAge Hybrid Age

  9. Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Hybrid Age • integrated • ubiquitous intelligent • social

  10. The Hybrid Age: A New Socio-Technical Nexus • Technologies merging with each other • Humans merging with technologies

  11. 3 Concepts to Understand the Hybrid Age Human-Technology Co-evolution • Technology evolution patterns • Brian Arthur: combinatorial technological evolution • Kevin Kelly: Techniumincludes man/nature • Human evolution patterns • Charles Darwin: modification by descent • Robert Fogel: techno-physioevolution • Hybrid Age: Evolution as Flow • Adrian Bejan: constructal law

  12. 3 Concepts to Understand the Hybrid Age Technik • Historical Usage • Lewis Mumford: culture, technology, people, processes, rules • Oswald Spengler: economic, political, cultural, educational systems • Technik in the Hybrid Age • Between scientific determinism and social constructivism • Capacity to harness emerging technologies Technikin the Hybrid Age

  13. 3 Concepts to Understand the Hybrid Age Generativity • The Structural Property of Capacity for Creation • Noam Chomsky: grammar from few rules • Jonathan Zittrain: capacity for unexpected users/products • Social Systems in Hybrid Age Exhibiting Generativity • Healthcare, education, economy, governance systems begin to exhibit expansive capacity to connect users and enable them to create new values and outputs • Generativity as Value-Neutral Property • Open to all. Potential for egalitarianism or monopolism

  14. The Foundations of Power

  15. GeoTechnology as a Driver in 21st Century Major trends have technology at root: • Shift to multipolarity • Shrinking of space • Convergence of economies • Spread of innovation • New forms of collaboration

  16. Geo-technology drives global trends

  17. BUT Isn’t the Singularity Near…? InformationAge Machines connect humans and process knowledge and instructions Machines become integrated, ubiquitous, intelligent and social HybridAge Singularity Age Machine intelligence becomes greater than human intelligence

  18. Disruptive Scenarios

  19. Scenario 1: DIY Manufacturing

  20. Scenario 1: DIY Manufacturing

  21. Scenario 1: DIY Manufacturing

  22. Scenario 1: DIY Manufacturing Beware of unexpected cascading scenarios

  23. Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots $45 Million – South Korea investment in Robotic Teaching Assistants

  24. Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots 86% – prostate surgeries in the US in 2010 were robot-assisted

  25. Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots • $100,000 – Cost of robotparalegals to examine 1.5 million documents

  26. Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots 160,000 – Fans who attended concert of Japanese holographic rock star

  27. Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots

  28. Scenario 3: Enhancing to Compete Drugs Prosthetics Brain computer interfaces Radical life extension

  29. Scenario 3: Enhancing to Compete Redefining Health • Health = Prevention + Therapy • + Enhancement

  30. Scenario 3: Enhancing to Compete • Commercialization - East • Invention - West

  31. Beijing Genomic Institute – more than meets the eye

  32. Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain • Sebastian Thrun • 2007 – Professor at Stanford University

  33. Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain • Sebastian Thrun • 2007 – Professor at Stanford University 2010 – He launched the Google Driverless car

  34. Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain • Sebastian Thrun • 2007 – Professor at Stanford University 2010 – He launched the Google Driverless car • 2011 – He taught a free online course on artificial intelligence to 160,000 students

  35. Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain • Sebastian Thrun • 2007 – Professor at Stanford University 2010 – He launched the Google Driverless car • 2011 – He taught a free online course on artificial intelligence to 160,000 students • 2012 – Left Stanford and started Udacity

  36. Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain

  37. Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain

  38. Cities

  39. A New Age, A New Scale: The Rise of the City • Massive urbanization • 70% world population will live in cities by 2050 • Building of new cities • UN estimates we need 9000 new cities • Shift in identity • Daniel Bell: “city-zen” is the new citizen

  40. Networked Infrastructure and Internet of Things: City as a Platform Smart Homes Smart Traffic Smart Power Smart Profiles Smart Trees?

  41. City-wide Dashboard Source: Accenture

  42. Business Opportunity • $1.2 Trillion Dollars in 10 years • Social Impact Opportunity • Healthcare, Education, Sustainability

  43. Rushto CreateNew Smart Cities/Districts andRetrofit Existing Cities Stockholm ★ Skolkovo ★ Amsterdam ★ Toronto ★ New York ★ PlanIT Valley ★ Chongqing Songdo ★ Nano City ★ Austin ★ ★ Masdar ★ Wuxi King Abdullah Economic City ★ ★ Lavasa ★ Ho Chi Min City ★ Singapore ★ Rio ★

  44. New Cities: Songdo

  45. Efficiency vs. Big Brother The Good The Bad

  46. Influence vs. manipulation The Bad The Good

  47. Achieving Good Technik

  48. The Path to Good Technik Embedding Values • Universal Rights: Access, transparency and equity • Is Internet a Human Right? (UN/Finland/France vs. Cerf) Techno-Pragmatism • Building capacity in leading sectors • Measurement: Income, Human Development, Connectivity Mindfulness about “Design” • Resolving the structure/agency tension • Filter Bubble and “Walled Gardens” Managing Your Identities • Personal Identity Ecology: Physical Individual, Virtual Avatar, Robotic Companion • Feedback Loops and Sense of Self

  49. Good vs. Bad Technik GOOD  • more economic participants • growing transparency and self-governance • lower cost of education BAD • Gene co-efficient growing • Global class struggle • Collective digital system crash

  50. CONTACTPARAG KHANNAparag@hybridreality.meAYESHA KHANNAayesha@hybridreality.me

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