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Renewable Electric Supply Curve Analysis for the WSCC Region

Renewable Electric Supply Curve Analysis for the WSCC Region. Objective. Estimate the potential of renewable energy resources to supply electricity in the WSCC region under the EIA AEO2000 reference case electricity prices. Analysis performed for 2005 and 2015. Analysis Method.

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Renewable Electric Supply Curve Analysis for the WSCC Region

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  1. Renewable Electric Supply Curve Analysis for the WSCC Region

  2. Objective • Estimate the potential of renewable energy resources to supply electricity in the WSCC region under the EIA AEO2000 reference case electricity prices. • Analysis performed for 2005 and 2015

  3. Analysis Method • Uses NREL supply curve methodology • estimates resource potential, not market penetration • all potential awarded to the least-cost technology • compares relative levelized cost of energy • renewables costs based on 1997 EPRI/DOE technology characterizations (with some adjustments) • new fossil plant costs based on EIA characterizations • existing fossil plants compete on variable cost using EIA AEO2000 fuel prices • PV buildings applications competes with retail price of electricity

  4. Key Assumptions • Only wind, geothermal, and PV are modeled. • Renewable generation in any one of the 3 WSCC subregions (NWP, RA, CONV) can be delivered to any load within the subregion. • No transmission constraints assumed within subregions. • No renewable energy power transfers take place between the 3 subregions. • Wind must “pay for” backup capability from a natural gas turbine (wind hybrid) to supply more than 15% of the electricity supply in a subregion.

  5. Key Assumptions (cont’d) • Renewables compete against fossil generation only. • Renewables instantaneously displace existing fossil generation when levelized costs are lower than operating costs. • Cost of renewables declines significantly over time as modified from EPRI/DOE estimates. • By 2015, wind costs are 3.2 c/kWh (for class 6 resource) • Cost of energy from conventional technologies remains constant over time as projected in the AEO2000. • NGCC cost is ~3.3 c/kWh in both 2005 and 2015 with heat rate improvements offsetting gas price increases

  6. Results/Conclusions • Sufficient renewable resources exist in the WSCC to displace all fossil electricity at 3 c/kWh additional cost. • Analysis does not account for transmission or other infrastructural constraints. • Average cost premium of 1 to 2 c/kWh for renewables appears to be a reasonable assumption for WRAP analysis • PV in buildings can make a substantial contribution by 2015 assuming significant cost reductions and net metering. • Natural gas prices are not a critical driver for renewables potential in the longer term.

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