Dave Radell NOAA/NWS Scientific Services Division Eastern Region Headquarters Bohemia, NY

1. Transitioning Research into WFO Operations in Eastern Region: Integration of the SPoRT SST/Ice Product Dave Radell NOAA/NWS Scientific Services Division Eastern Region Headquarters Bohemia, NY david.radell@noaa.gov 19th Annual US-Canadian Great Lakes Operational Workshop, Ithaca, NY

2. Outline • NWS ER “Research-to-Operations*” Model • Great Lakes Forecast Problem • Toward a Possible Solution • Product “Implementation” • Continued Collaboration/Expansion *Operational Products receive full NOAA/NWS institutional support. The SPoRT SST/Ice cover product is not technically “operational”.

3. NWS Eastern Region

4. NWS Research to Operations • Step 1 - Discover & Share (Only the beginning) • Step 2 - Demonstrate added value (So what? Show me!) • Step 3 - "Operational” Implementation (Is it practical?) • Step 4 - Mastery (By all, not a few) • Step 5 - Periodic review (A necessity) Courtesy Kermit Keeter: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/science/

5. Forecast Problem: Discover & Share Local models (WRF) at GL WFOs producing unrealistic QPF for LES events. Why? += Unrepresentative WRF initial conditions!

6. Forecast Problem: Discover & Share NAM Ice OR

7. Forecast Problem Discover & Share

8. SST Differences: Demonstrate added value SPoRTMODIS/AMSR-E RTGSST Legacy Qualitative: More frequent updates, increased spatial resolution, cloud cover mitigation, better analysis(?).

9. Product Verification: Demonstrate added value And some quantitative proof, thanks to SPoRT!

10. Local Modeling: Demonstrate added value Evaluate(!), starting with Great Lakes offices. Diagnostic fields for analysis in AWIPS, plus integrated into existing architecture used at WFOs (WRF-EMS). Champlain, Finger Lakes, etc.

11. Moving the Data: Operational Implementation SR LDM ER WFOs

12. View in AWIPS: Operational Implementation SST/Ice Cover SST Latency

13. G.L. Ensemble: Operational Implementation In addition to diagnostic use, the SST/Ice Cover product is integrated into the WRF-EMS for use in local modeling/NE ensemble. Northeast Ensemble Pr{QPF>0.05”}

14. Continued Product Evaluation: Mastery Recent problems with ice cover in WRF EMS-NMM *Early February 2011 Event. NAM Default Ice Cover in WRF EMS

15. Continued Product Evaluation: Mastery Recent problems with ice cover in WRF EMS-NMM *Early February 2011 Event. *********STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL (IN.)********* ...JEFFERSON COUNTY... THERESA 20.0 CARTHAGE 5.3 ...LEWIS COUNTY... BARNES CORNERS 15.0 HOOKER 10.4 HARRISVILLE 6.7 LOWVILLE 4.0 ...OSWEGO COUNTY... LACONA 23.6 SCRIBA 22.0 MINETTO 11.7 PHOENIX 1.1 TYX/BUF 88D

16. Northwest Flow Snow Events SST/Ice Cover product expansion within the Regionfor southeast high-res. ensemble (RENCI-WRF).

17. Southeast Meso. Ensemble SST/Ice Cover product expansion within the Region. ER Members: CAE, CHS, GSP, ILM, RNK, RAH, LWX, AKQ, MHX

18. Final Thoughts • A good recent example of a successful R20 partnership within the NWS-ER. • Collaboration is ongoing. Additional questions remain! Warm season events? • WRF-EMS Verification-can we show continued added value quantitatively (BOIVerify or Met/MODE)? • Thanks! • david.radell@noaa.gov