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The Election

The Election . Ray Fair Model. VOTE: Republican share of two-party presidential vote in election. V O T E. GOODNEWS. GOODNEWS: Number of quarters of an administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at annual rate.

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The Election

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  1. The Election

  2. Ray Fair Model VOTE:Republican share of two-party presidential vote in election V O T E GOODNEWS GOODNEWS: Number of quarters of an administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at annual rate The vote equation for 2012 is then: VOTE = C + .B*GROWTH - .B*INFLATION + B*GOODNEWS

  3. National Party identification 1937 -2012

  4. Party Identification by Decade

  5. Obama as Divider Average R approval Average D approval Gap Obama year 2 13 percent 83 percent 70% Obama Year 3 12 percent84 percent72% Independents will decide who wins

  6. How Independents Vote in Presidential Elections (Exit Polls) Source: National Election Pool

  7. How Independents Vote in House Elections (Exit Polls) Source: National Election Pool

  8. 47 45

  9. Gallup Most Important Problem(June 2012) Economy (General) 31 % Unemployment 25 Government 12 Federal Budget Deficit 11 Healthcare 6 Lack of money 5 Ethical / Moral decline 4 Education 4

  10. The Presidential Election: Historical Approval Dwight Eisenhower Richard Nixon Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan George H.W. Bush Bill Clinton George W. Bush Barack Obama

  11. Strategy & the 2008 Electoral College AK-3 2008: Obama 365, McCain 173 NH-4 WA-11 ME-4 VT-3 MA-12 ND-3 MT-3 MN-10 RI-4 OR-7 WI -11 NY-33 ID-4 SD-3 MI-18 WY-3 CT-8 PA-23 NJ-15 IA-7 OH-21 NE-5 DE-3 IN-12 IL-22 NV-4 WV-5 UT-5 VA-13 MD-10 KY-8 CO-8 CA-54 KS-6 MO-11 NC-14 DC-3 TN-11 OK-8 SC-8 AR-6 AZ-8 NM-5 GA-13 AL-9 MS-7 LA-9 TX-32 HI-4 Obama McCain FL-25

  12. Changed Electorate 08-2012 Minority voters (80% Obama) UP 3% from 2008 White working class (41% Obama) DOWN from 2008 by 3% Examples: Nevada minority vote UP 9% from 08 While white working class is DOWN 5% Wisconsin : minorities UP 3% white working class DOWN 7%

  13. Strategy & the 2012 Electoral College AK-3 Swing states both Democratic and Republican NH-4 -9.6 WA-11 ME-4 VT-3 MA-11 ND-3 MT-3 MN-9 -10.2 RI-4 OR-8 WI -11 -13.9 NY-32 ID-4 SD-3 MI-17 WY-3 CT-8 PA-22 -10.3 NJ-14 IA-6 -9.6 OH-19 -4.5 NE-5 DE-3 IN-12 -1.0 IL-21 NV-5 -12.5 WV-5 UT-6 VA-13 -6.3 MD-10 KY-8 CO-8 -8.1 CA-54 KS-6 MO-10 NC-14 -0.4 DC-3 2012 ELECTORAL COLLEGE ANALYSIS Republicans need to pick-up 90 Electoral Votes TN-11 OK-8 SC-9 AR-6 AZ-10 NM-5 -15.1 GA-14 AL-9 MS-7 LA-8 TX-36 HI-4 FL-26 -2.8

  14. Strategy & the 2012 Electoral College The battleground states for 2012 -4 ND-3 MT MN-10 NH- 8 OR-7 NY-31 WI 4 ID-4 WY-3 PA IA 3 11 OH NE-5 6 IN 7 IL-21 NV 3 -2 UT-5 WV-5 VA 2 CO CA-55 KS-6 MO-11 -2 NC -5 TN-11 6 5 OK-7 SC-8 AR-6 AZ -4 NM GA-15 AL-9 MS-6 LA-9 TX-34 6 FL

  15. Things not to pay attention to.

  16. The Public’s Interest Average # of Viewers (Millions) 2012 Florida GOP Debate 5.4 O’Reilly 3.6 Fox News 2.7 Rachel Maddow 0.4 American Idol 29.3 Dancing with the Stars 18.4 2 Broke Girls 19.2 Source: Nielsen Media Research. GOP Data: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/business/media/republican-debates-are-a-hot-ticket-on-tv.html?pagewanted=all,

  17. YouGov Campaign Poll “In a press conference last week, President Obama was asked about the state of the economy. How did he describe economic growth in the private sector?” “The private sector is doing fine.” 47% “The private sector is struggling.” 9 “The private sector is mostly the same as it was.” 4 “I didn’t hear what he said.” 39

  18. Other Examples Romney “very poor” 34 % Obama “birth control mandate” 26 Santorum “birth control” 43 Romney “Etch-A-Sketch” 45

  19. What did Obama Say? (6/16-18) Didn’t hear 39 18-29 51 30-64 39 65+ 25 Male 30 Female 48 Democrat 43 Republican 35 Independent 29

  20. Santorum’s Position? (3/3-6) Didn’t hear 43 18-29 40 30-64 46 65+ 39 Male 34 Female 52 Democrat 39 Republican 48 Independent 36

  21. The Republican Nomination Contest Iowa Caucus 6.5 % New Hampshire Primary 31.1 South Carolina Primary 17.6 Florida Primary 12.8 Nevada Caucus 1.9 Minnesota Caucus* 1.2 Colorado Caucus 1.8 Missouri Primary 7.4 Maine Caucus* .5

  22. Betting pools President

  23. Most competitive House seats(242R – 191D)

  24. Betting pools House

  25. Betting pools Senate

  26. The End Thank You

  27. Best Hopes for Changes from 2008-2012 AK-3 NH-4 Wash 11 ME-4 VT-3 MA-12 ND-3 MT-3 MN-10 RI-4 OR-7 WI -10 NY-31 ID-4 SD-3 MI-17 WY-3 CT-7 PA-20 NJ-15 IA-6 OH-18 NE-5 DE-3 IN-11 IL-21 NV-6 UT-5 WV VA-13 MD-10 KY-8 CO-9 CA-55 KS-6 MO-10 NC-15 DC-3 TN-11 OK-7 SC-8 AR-6 AZ-10 NM-5 GA-15 AL-9 MS-6 LA-9 TX-38 HI-4 FL-29

  28. Electoral College 2008 AK-3 NH-4 Wash 11 ME-4 VT-3 MA-12 ND-3 MT-3 MN-10 RI-4 OR-7 WI -10 NY-31 ID-4 SD-3 MI-17 WY-3 CT-7 PA-21 NJ-15 IA-7 OH-20 NE-5 DE-3 IN-11 IL-21 NV-5 UT-5 WV VA-13 MD-10 KY-8 CO-9 CA-55 KS-6 MO-11 NC-15 DC-3 TN-11 OK-7 SC-8 AR-6 AZ-10 NM-5 GA-15 AL-9 MS-6 LA-9 TX-34 HI-4 FL-27

  29. Romney

  30. I was just going over the primary rules and polls today, and I noticed • >> that Romney has a huge advantage in the Winner Take All primaries • >> (Arizona, California, Florida, New Jersey, Utah). They account for • >> 375 delegates, and he leads (or has won) in almost all of these WTA • >> states. If he stays up in the polls in those states (as he currently • >> is) it will be very hard for Santorum to catch Romney in delegates, • >> even if Santorum wins a larger share of the vote in the primaries. • >> What are the chances that Santorum beats Romney in California? • >> • >> In this respect, the GOP primaries resemble the Gary Hart v. Walter • >> Mondale contest.

  31. WAR WAR

  32. The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections David Brady and Morris Fiorina Hoover Institution July 11, 2012

  33. “A week in politics is a long time” (4 months in politics is a very long time)

  34. Gallup Trial Heats August 1948: Dewey > Truman + 11 August 1976: Carter > Ford + 22 August 1980: Carter = Reagan even August 1988: Dukakis > Bush + 12 August 2000: Bush > Gore + 7 August 2008: Obama = McCain even

  35. Republican Nomination Contest Santorum Romney

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