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Energy Overview

Energy Overview. for CNA Panel Discussion May 8, 2013 | Crystal City, VA by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator. Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand. world energy consumption quadrillion Btu. Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011. History. 2008.

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Energy Overview

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  1. Energy Overview for CNA Panel Discussion May 8, 2013 | Crystal City, VA by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator

  2. Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand world energy consumption quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 History 2008 Projections Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  3. Growth in income and population drive rising energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate increases in energy demand average annual change (2008-2035)percent per year Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  4. Non-OECD liquid fuels use surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future total liquids consumptionmillion barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 2010 Projections History 66 Non-OECD 46 OECD 47 41 Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  5. Liquids fuel consumption in the United States, China, and India, 1990-2040 million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 2010 History Projections Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  6. Global liquids supply increases 26 percent with regional market shares relatively stable Global liquids supply million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 History Projections 2011 44% OPEC 40% 31% Other non-OECD 34% 25% OECD 26% Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  7. World oil prices move together due to arbitrage Global crude oil prices Nominal dollars per barrel, monthly average Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  8. Spot natural gas prices vary significantly across global markets since 2008, with many markets far below oil-related benchmarks Global spot natural gas, crude oil, and LNG prices U.S. dollars per million British thermal unit Source: Derived from Bloomberg, L.P. Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  9. U.S. Energy Context Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  10. Key results from the 2013 Annual Energy Outlook • Growth in U.S. energy production outstrips consumption growth • Oil production, particularly from tight oil plays, rises sharply over the next decade • Motor gasoline consumption declines, reflecting the introduction of more stringent fuel economy standards, while diesel fuel consumption is moderated by increased natural gas use in heavy-duty vehicles • The United States. is a net exporter of coal and becomes a net exporter of natural gas over the next decade -- for oil, the United States remains a net importer in the Reference case, but sharply reduces or eliminates import dependence by the mid-2030s in “high resource” sensitivity cases. • U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain more than five percent below their 2005 level through 2040, reflecting increased efficiency and the shift to a less carbon-intensive fuel mix Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  11. U.S. energy use grows slowly over projection reflecting improving energy efficiency and a slow and extended economic recovery Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. energy History Projections 2000 2011 28% Natural gas 24% 26% 11% 6% 8% Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) 8% 9% 8% Nuclear 2% 1% 23% Liquid biofuels 19% 20% Coal 39% 36% 32% Oil and other liquids Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  12. Multiple factors have contributed to U.S. crude oil resource estimate increases over the years, with tight oil contributing recently U.S. crude oil and lease condensate resources in non-prohibited areas billion barrels Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release 222.6 23.8 48.6 41.6 16.5 67.0 25.2 The USGS reduced NPR-A resource estimates, which is responsible for the lower AEO2013 Alaska resources. Prior to AEO2009, resources in Pacific, Atlantic, and Eastern GOM OCS were under moratoria and not included. Includes shale oil. Prior to AEO2011, tight oil is included in unproved other lower-48 onshore category. Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  13. U.S. import share of liquid fuels declines due to increased production of tight oil and gas liquids, and greater fuel efficiency Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History Projections 2011 Biofuels excluding imports 12% Natural gas plant liquids 17% 5% 7% 38% 1% Liquids from natural gas and coal 38% Petroleum production Net petroleum and biofuel imports 45% 37% Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  14. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release, and Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2013 U.S. tight oil production leads growth in domestic production Reference case U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) High Oil & Natural Gas Resource case Projections History Projections History 2011 2011 STEO projection (April 2013) Tight oil Tight oil Other lower 48 onshore Other lower 48 onshore Lower 48 offshore Lower 48 offshore Alaska Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 High Oil & Gas Resource case Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  15. U.S. net oil imports decline to 7% in 2040 in high resource case; the United States becomes a net oil exporter with additional demand reductions U.S. net oil imports percent Source: AEO2013 History Projections 2011 High Net Imports Low Oil and Gas Resource Reference High Oil and Gas Resource Low/No Net Imports Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  16. The ratio of oil to natural gas prices remains high through 2040 in EIA’s AEO2013 Reference case projection ratio of oil price to natural gas price Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 History 2011 Projections Oil and natural gas prices 2011 dollars per million Btu History 2011 Projections Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  17. Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020 U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release History 2011 Projections Consumption Domestic supply Net imports Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  18. Shale gas production leads growth in production through 2040 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Projections 2011 History Shale gas Tight gas Non-associated offshore Alaska Coalbed methane Associated with oil Non-associated onshore Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

  19. For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual Howard Gruenspecht , CNA Panel May 8, 2013

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